Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
652 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Issuance...LIFR and IFR ceilings are expected through this
morning as a line of storms progresses east across the Panhandles.
Tempo groups were used at all three TAF sites to account for these
thunderstorms and timing. By 18z the TAF sites should become clear
of any thunderstorms with ceilings increasing to VFR. GUY has the
chance to see some low clouds towards the end of the TAF period
putting them into MVFR. Winds are from the northeast but will
transition from the south by this afternoon. DHT and GUY may see
winds from the north near the end of the TAF period. Wind speeds
will remain light 5 to 10 knots across all TAF sites through the
period.

Rutt

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 503 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019/

DISCUSSION...
A rather complicated forecast for today is in the offing. The
upper level shortwave trof seen on satellite imagery movg across
northern Arizona is tracking a bit slower than earlier model runs
of the past few days had projected. Latest short and hi-res
models suggest this feature will head towards the four corners
area by 12Z this morning, then across northern New Mexico by 18Z
today, and finally across the western half of Kansas by 00Z this
evening. Nearly all models that develop precipitation have now
extended the pops well into the morning hours before rapidly
diminishing from west to east this afternoon. Have reflected the
forecast for today in that fashion with highest overall pops in
eastern sections, followed by central zones, and lowest values
across the western sections. Pops are then lowered for this
afternoon, eventually restricted to eastern zones by mid
afternoon. A few storms may become strong to marginally severe,
mainly eastern half of the area, with hail the primary threat.

A brief break in the precipitation threat is expected tonight
through Wednesday. Another cold front is poised to move through
the OK and TX Panhandles Wednesday night with breezy north winds
in its wake along with cooler temperatures for Thursday. This
front may set off a few showers and tstms Wednesday night over the
eastern sections, and have included slgt chc pops for this area.

The threat for additional showers and tstms is forecast to return
to all of the OK and TX Panhandles Thursday night through early
next week as the main steering flow remains favorable. However,
medium range models are not in agreement with the overall upper
air pattern durg this time period, which is not too unusual given
that the flow pattern is somewhat blocky and split across the
Pacific Ocean. The southern stream plus any embedded upper level
shortwave trofs translating through it will likely be the main
driving mechanism for potential shower and tstm development in our
fcst area. Given the discrepancies among the medium range models,
have kept the pops on the conservative side compared to superblend
values pending better agreement.

02

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

23/2

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
430 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-302100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
430 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible today across the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles. A few storms may become strong to marginally severe,
with hail the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across eastern
sections of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, and then again
Thursday night through Monday across the entire area. A few storms
that develop during these time periods will have the potential to
become strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds the
primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may become necessary today.

02

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1025 AM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 AM     HAIL             3 WNW AMARILLO          35.22N 101.87W
04/30/2019  E0.75 INCH       POTTER             TX   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT RECEIVED OF DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900531

BIEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1028 AM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 AM     FLOOD            AMARILLO                35.20N 101.82W
04/30/2019                   POTTER             TX   PUBLIC

            LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN DOWNTOWN
            AMARILLO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900532

BIEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1035 AM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HAIL             6 WSW AMARILLO          35.17N 101.93W
04/30/2019  M1.00 INCH       RANDALL            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NBC METEOROLOGIST REPORTED NICKLES TO QUARTER SIZED
            HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900533

BIEDA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1041 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

TXZ008-012-013-017-018-301600-
Hutchinson TX-Potter TX-Randall TX-Carson TX-Armstrong TX-
1041 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN RANDALL...
NORTHWESTERN ARMSTRONG...WESTERN CARSON...SOUTH CENTRAL HUTCHINSON
AND EASTERN POTTER COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM CDT...

At 1040 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Fritch to 5 miles east of
Amarillo. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Amarillo, Borger, Fritch, Washburn, Mescalero Park and Pantex.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3583 10123 3520 10144 3504 10190 3558 10170
TIME...MOT...LOC 1540Z 231DEG 34KT 3555 10153 3522 10172

DGW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1050 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

TXZ015-019-020-301615-
Wheeler TX-Donley TX-Collingsworth TX-
1050 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WHEELER...NORTHERN
COLLINGSWORTH AND NORTHEASTERN DONLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

At 1049 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Lutie to 9 miles west of
Dozier. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Shamrock, Dozier, Lutie, Lela, Samnorwood and Twitty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also possible with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 10008 3503 10063 3518 10055 3519 10054
      3521 10054 3535 10047 3533 10000 3508 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1549Z 217DEG 31KT 3509 10014 3511 10051

DGW

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