Severe Thunderstorm Warning 384, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
631 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions are expected through 00Z Monday at all three TAF
sites, however showers and thunderstorms may cause MVFR conditions
at all three TAF sites between 00Z and 08Z Sunday. Also, low
clouds and fog may result in MVFR to IFR conditions at the Guymon
and possibly the Amarillo TAF site between 10Z and 15Z Sunday.
Winds will be east to southeast and south 5 to 15 knots or 10 to
20 knots at all three TAF sites through 00Z Monday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 246 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019/

SHORT TERM...Tonight...

Potential for showers and thunderstorms exists through this evening,
primarily across the northwest part of the Combined Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles.  This area is characterized by higher theta-e
values at 850 mb through 700 mb and modest divergence at 500 mb
through 300 mb in northwest flow.  Showers and thunderstorms will
also be possible through this evening across generally the southwest
half of the Combined Panhandles, owing to expected low-level
moisture flux convergence in areas where warmer conditions developed
west of low clouds.  Potential for thunderstorms expected to wane
after 10 PM as mid-level flow weakens and begins trending to
northeast.

Cockrell

LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...

Hurricane Dorian continues to dominate the headlines as it slowly
approaches the FL/SC coast. Dorian is not expected to enter the
Gulf of Mexico as it gets caught up in the stronger westerlies
aloft. The main features of interest for the Panhandles in the
overall synoptic upper flow is the persistent high pressure over
the Four Corners area and the slightly more progressive flow over
the northern CONUS. GFS/ECMWF/NAM/Canadian are all in decent
agreement with gradually shifting the upper high east over the
Southern Rockies by Monday as a quick moving shortwave moves
across the northern plains through Tuesday. 500mb heights will
begin to increase some over the Panhandles as the high shifts
east, with a brief weakness in the heights Tuesday into Wednesday
as the shortwave traverses north of the high. A cold front
associated with the shortwave is progged to move through the
Panhandles Tuesday evening and overnight.

Temperatures are expected to warm into mid to upper 90s Sunday
through Tuesday in conjunction with the mid/upper height rises.
Tuesday should be the warmest day ahead of the cold front, perhaps
aided by a little compressional heating. The northeasterly flow
aloft and the decreasing sun angle should help mitigate widespread
triple digit heat with the position of this upper high. An
isolated diurnally driven storm can't completely be ruled out,
especially Sunday afternoon where surface convergence overlaps a
small area of enhanced low level theta-E up to 700mb near the
south central Texas Panhandle. For now, kept pops below
mentionable given subsidence aloft, but may need to consider
10PoP rule in period one.

There are model differences with the timing and strength of the
cold front Tuesday, but given the strength of the shortwave and
progged pressure rises by NAM/Canadian, the front will likely
favor the faster and windier guidance, so CONSALL was used instead
of the NBM for winds Tuesday night. This would also suggest
better convergence along the front Tuesday night and perhaps some
showers and isolated storms. Moisture does look limited in the BL,
so this will likely keep coverage minimal, but slight chance pops
were expanded a bit further south and east compared to the blend.
Max temperatures Wednesday should be back around or slightly
below average, before gradually climbing back into the 90s going
towards the weekend as the upper high tries to strengthen as
perhaps a deeper trough tries to form coming off the Pacific.
Models diverge considerable beyond Friday with the handling of
this feature, so will have a wait a few days to see if a little
pattern change might be in store for next week.

Ward

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
254 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-010800-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
254 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible across the
Panhandles through tonight. Some storms could be strong with small
hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A few thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night in the Oklahoma
Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle and Friday night in the
northwestern combined Panhandles. Storms are not expected to be
severe at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

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