Severe Thunderstorm Warning 360, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
612 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Sunday. An isolated thunderstorm may impact mainly the Dalhart and
possibly even the Amarillo TAF site between 00Z and 05Z Saturday.
Winds will be mainly southeast to south and southwest 5 to 15
knots and 10 to 20 knots at all three TAF sites. Winds may be
stronger and gusty and also erratic in and near thunderstorms.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 351 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight and Saturday)...

Zonal flow continues over the Panhandles today. Hot temperatures
continue across the Southern High Plains. 850mb temperatures are
near 34C across the western Panhandles. Several areas are in the
100- 105F range with temperatures and this will likely be the
result again on Saturday. Lee surface low to track across the
Panhandles this afternoon, and again tomorrow afternoon, with a
pseudo-dryline setup. Although dewpoints are lower than have been
most of the summer, as we now have drier air over the Panhandles.
Still enough moisture that strong inverted-V profiles are setting
up and if thunderstorms form damaging wind gusts are very
possible. The question still remains as to how much storm activity
will we see? CAPE values are dropping off as we move further into
the afternoon, but DCAPE values are in the 1800-2200J/kg. Right
now going slight chance from a Hereford to Canadian line eastward
for this evening. Weak cu field setting up over this area but so
far no vertical extent.

Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Canyon Floor and a few
other areas. Other areas are getting close, and since tomorrow may
very well be a carbon copy of today, maybe a degree or two
higher, we should have a good feel as to what other areas may need
highlights. So this will be deferred to the midnight shift to get
the next set of highlights out.

Weber

LONG TERM (Saturday night through Thursday)...

Noteworthy items include the chances for convection ongoing as
the period begins Saturday night, followed by two days of
temperatures around 100-105. Thunderstorms chances may come to
fruition again middle to end of next week, but a few things will
have to work in tandem for this to be achieved.

Summertime convection continues tomorrow with chances best across
the southeastern Texas Panhandle. We have a H3 jet nosing in
Saturday evening with a very subtle vorticity max in the zonal
flow aloft. A surface trough is also expect to develop across
western parts of the Panhandles. Theta-e values will be highest
across eastern parts of the forecast area. An inverted-V setup is
anticipated looking at forecast soundings, and CAPE values could
end up around 1000 J/kg with decent directional shear in the low
to mid levels, so isolated thunderstorms are possible given these
conditions. DCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg are anticipated
Saturday evening, so any thunderstorms that do develop could
produce damaging wind gusts as evaporative cooling creates strong
downdrafts. Widespread severe weather is not likely, but any
thunderstorms that develop will need to be monitored for damaging
wind gusts.

Both Sunday and Monday may end up being hot days as temperatures
reach the 100 to 105 degree range. At the very least, the Palo
Duro Canyon may end up needing a heat advisory these days, if not
more of the forecast area.

Next item of interest is Tuesday night through Wednesday night
for convection potential. Models are in disagreement here with
timing and intensity, but the general consensus is we should see
chances increase again the middle of next week. The big question
is...does the high breakdown? If so, how much influence will this
have on a trough pushing into the Great Lakes, which could extend
a cold front into the Central Plains. The European is more robust
with our chances as it breaks the high down faster. This allows
the trough digging down into the Great Lakes region to achieve
more equatorial progression. This also allows a cold front to
extend down into southern parts of Kansas knocking on our
backdoor. The northern periphery of the high could allow a
vorticity max to ride around over the cold front and help kick off
convection if the center of the high ends up over the four
corners region. GFS struggles to break down the high, so rainfall
chances are slightly different on timing and intensity. Overall,
our convection chances may end up heavily influenced by the
outcome/location of the H5 high and southward progression of the
upper trough into the Great Lakes next week.

The end of the work week may see thunderstorm chances again if
the high can stay west of us, giving us a northwest flow pattern
aloft with embedded shortwaves.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Hutchinson...Palo Duro Canyon.

OK...None.

&&

11/99

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
615 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

TXZ007-008-012-013-170000-
Hutchinson TX-Potter TX-Carson TX-Moore TX-
615 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CARSON...SOUTHERN
HUTCHINSON...NORTHEASTERN POTTER AND SOUTHEASTERN MOORE COUNTIES
UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 615 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Borger, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Borger, Fritch, Skellytown, Sanford and Lake Meredith.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 10188 3564 10194 3585 10123 3547 10110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 244DEG 24KT 3555 10148

Ward

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
655 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

TXZ009-010-014-015-170030-
Hemphill TX-Gray TX-Wheeler TX-Roberts TX-
655 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WHEELER...
NORTHEASTERN GRAY...SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTS AND SOUTHWESTERN HEMPHILL
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 655 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of New Mobeetie, or 11 miles southeast of Miami, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Mobeetie and Mobeetie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 10066 3559 10070 3573 10049 3547 10031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 235DEG 14KT 3554 10056

Ward

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