Severe Thunderstorm Warning 352, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
303 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday.
Isolated thunderstorms developing at this time southeast of
Amarillo. Axis of low-level moisture flux convergence currently
lies across Southeast Texas Panhandle. Locally higher 700 mb theta-
e values also in this area, so additional isolated thunderstorm
expected. Vorticity maximum currently over northeast New Mexico
expected to support thunderstorms over northwest part of forecast
area late this afternoon and this evening. DCAPE values above 1000
J/kg currently noted over southern Texas Panhandle, with values
expected to increase further through this evening, with northwest
and north-central sections also expected to rise above 1000 J/kg.
Thus, expecting damaging gusts to be main severe threat this
evening.  Heavy rain will also accompany stronger storms as PWATs
currently in the 1.25 to 1.75 inch range over most of the area.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger past
midnight across mainly northwest parts of the combined Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles. Expect thunderstorm development on Saturday to
be confined to northern sections, where slightly stronger mid-level
flow and higher instability expected to be positioned. Expanding
mid-level ridge expected to lead to warmer conditions on Saturday,
with floor of the Canyon perhaps reaching 105 degrees, leading to
possible issuance of a Heat Advisory.

Cockrell

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Friday.
Upper level steering flow around the western periphery of the
ridge of high pressure will favor the OK Panhandle and far western
Texas Panhandle with respect to tstm threat Saturday night through
Monday afternoon. In addition, high temperatures around 105
degrees are forecast again on Sunday and Monday for the Palo Duro
Canyon State Park, and additional Heat Advisories may become
necessary for this area.

The threat of showers and tstms spreads east and southeast to
encompass the entire forecast area Monday night through Wednesday
night as the upper level ridge of high pressure temporarily
flattens, resulting in a more favorable steering flow.
Also, a weak cold front is progged to move across the region
Monday and Monday night with some slight cooling seen for Tuesday
and Wednesday. The upper level ridge of high pressure is then
expected to strengthen across the southern plains once again for
the latter part of next week. This will result in generally dry
weather along with a return of well above normal temperatures for
Thursday and Friday.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                70 101  73  99  72 /  30   0  10   5  10
Beaver OK                  70 100  70 101  71 /  30  20  20   5  20
Boise City OK              65  96  65  96  64 /  70  20  30  10  20
Borger TX                  72 103  76 103  75 /  40   5  10   5  10
Boys Ranch TX              69  99  72 100  71 /  40   0  10   5  10
Canyon TX                  69 101  72  99  71 /  30   0  10   5  10
Clarendon TX               73 101  75 102  75 /  20   5   5   0   5
Dalhart TX                 65  98  67  98  66 /  60   5  20  10  20
Guymon OK                  68  99  69  99  69 /  40  20  20  10  20
Hereford TX                69  99  71  99  70 /  30   5  10   5  10
Lipscomb TX                72 101  74 103  75 /  30  10  10   5  10
Pampa TX                   70  99  73 101  73 /  30   5  10   5   5
Shamrock TX                72 101  74 102  74 /  20   5   5   0   5
Wellington TX              74 103  76 104  76 /  10   5   5   0   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
248 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-101100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
248 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon through
tonight across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Some storms will
have the potential to become strong to marginally severe, with
strong, gusty winds and small hail the primary hazards. In addition,
heavy rainfall will likely accompany the strongest storms, which
may lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle and
the western Texas Panhandle during the afternoon and nighttime
hours Saturday through Monday, and then across all of the Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles Monday night through Wednesday night. Any
storms that develop during these time periods should remain below
severe levels at this time.

High temperatures around 105 degrees are expected at Palo Duro
Canyon State Park on Saturday afternoon, Sunday afternoon, and
Monday afternoon. A Heat Advisory will likely be required each of
those afternoons.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

02

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
444 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

TXZ014-015-092215-
Gray TX-Wheeler TX-
444 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WHEELER AND
SOUTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 444 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported a strong
thunderstorm near Mclean, or 16 miles west of Shamrock, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mclean and Kellerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 10042 3518 10058 3525 10067 3549 10047
      3530 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 223DEG 14KT 3525 10054

LFM

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