Severe Thunderstorm Warning 340, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
623 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period. VCSH
conditions around KDHT/KGUY will continue to diminish in coverage
as we head towards 06Z. Going past 06Z, precipitation will clear
out with VFR conditions continuing through the remainder of the
TAF period. The main cold front is hovering over KAMA as we start
the 00Z TAF period, but eventually, all sites will have a
predominant northerly flow at 5-15 kts with sct to bkn mid to high
cloud deck throughout TAF period as the cold front continues to
slowly move south.

Meccariello

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 256 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019/

SHORT TERM...This Afternoon through Tomorrow...

Main concern in the short term is the potential for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the Panhandles.
The upper high that led to our scorching temperatures Thursday has
begun retreating back westward, putting us under northwesterly
flow aloft. At the surface, cold front is slowly pushing southward
this afternoon. In typical Panhandles fashion, the 60s surface
dewpoints behind this feature are higher than the 40s and 50s
dewpoints seen ahead of it. Given this, instability is actually
located north of the front, with latest SPC mesoanalysis showing
1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with between 25-175 J/kg of MLCIN. With
only weak mid-level disturbances seen on WV satellite, spotty
development north of the front is possible, but do not think this
capping will erode enough for widespread shower and thunderstorm
development. Any enhanced coverage will occur near the front,
where low level convergence may help overcome the inhibition.
Current surface wind fields and SPC mesoanalysis suggest the most
favorable combination of factors will be located across the
northwestern Panhandles. Given relatively moist surface dewpoints and
overall warm atmosphere, do not think severe wind gusts or hail
are favored with any storms that manage to develop. Main concern
will be for locally heavy rainfall, as PWAT values are above 1
inch and storm motion vectors are low in magnitude - generally
around 5 knots.

For Saturday afternoon, upper ridge continues to jog westward while
at the surface northeasterly winds will predominate. Given this
obliquely upslope surface flow, temperatures should hold back to
around 90. The surface front and it's associated low level
convergence look to be located to the south and west of the
Panhandles during the afternoon. As a result, precipitation is not
expected at this time.

Ferguson

LONG TERM...Tomorrow Night through Thursday...

In the long term, the main thought is that the upper level high
pressure will be sitting over the desert SW, leaving the Panhandles
in northwest flow. This will lead to the possibility of showers
coming off the mountains. Some days the rain will make it and others
it won't.

Saturday night through Monday looks to be on the dry side with
precip staying away as H5 heights rise. By Monday night heights fall
and positive vorticity advection can make its way into the area.
This will allow for thunderstorms to be possible with the northwest
favored. The cold front on Tuesday starts pushing its way into the
Panhandles then stalls out in the northern half. The front will
bring rain chances again for Tuesday evening. On Wednesday, long
range models now have the front being pushed back and allowing for
another big warm up of near triple digit temps into the area. Models
are not consistent with rain chances for mid week as the GFS wants
to bring rain to everywhere and the ECMWF is dry for the Panhandles.
For now going to leave a chance for rain in the forecast until
models come to a better consensus. The only thing the models do
agree on is the warm temps coming back.

Beat

AVIATION...18Z TAFs...

VFR conditions expected the be predominant at all TAF sites
through the period. Main concerns with this TAF cycle are the
potential for showers and storms at DHT and GUY along with the
timing of a front at AMA as it pushes south through the
Panhandles. Current thinking is that storms are most likely at
DHT, where a TEMPO group has been introduced for this afternoon
and evening. On the subject of the front, thinking this will reach
AMA by 01z. Amendments will be issued as needed this afternoon
should the front reach AMA earlier or shower and storm coverage
increase in the vicinity of GUY.

Ferguson

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

29/3

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
300 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-030900-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
300 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and evening,
with the northwestern Panhandles have a relatively high chance of
seeing a thunderstorm. Any thunderstorms that do develop are not
expected to be severe. However, locally heavy rainfall is
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday evening in the far
southwest Texas Panhandle, then once again starting Monday
afternoon through Thursday evening for areas of the combined
Panhandles. The probability for severe weather is low at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
645 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

TXZ013-014-030015-
Gray TX-Carson TX-
645 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CARSON AND GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

At 645 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Lefors to 6 miles west of
Panhandle. Movement was southwest at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pampa, Panhandle, White Deer, Mclean, Groom, Lefors, Lake Mcclellan,
Kingsmill, Alanreed and Pantex.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 10162 3554 10162 3552 10054 3518 10054
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 033DEG 20KT 3538 10071 3538 10148

LFM