Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1229 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...
VFR conditions are favored through the TAF period, with KGUY as
the exception. Outside chance that storms across the northern
Panhandle will clip the southern Panhandle and impact KAMA. So for
now no mention of storms and will amend TAF as necessary if it
nears KAMA. KDHT is also on the fringe, but has a better chance of
storms than KAMA, so have noted a TEMPO group from 06z-08z. KGUY
looks pretty solid based on radar, and will prevail -TSRA for the
first 3 hours. Isolated high wind gusts will be possible at this
TAF site, although general winds will be around 15kts. For now
have kept the cigs and vis out of MVFR, but brief MVFR conditions
can't be ruled out with the thunderstorms. Storms should be free
of all TAF sites by 12z and VFR conditions will continue through
the rest of the TAF period. Low chance of storms again from 21z-
00z at KGUY so not enough for TAF notation at this time.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019/

SHORT TERM (through tonight)...

Wind shift line associated with cold front has remained over far
southeast Texas Panhandle for the past few hours, running
southwest to northeast across Collingsworth County. Baroclinic
zone however, lies about 40 miles to its northwest, with
temperatures in the lower- 80s in close proximity to lower-90s.
Airmass over eastern sections remains very unstable, with surface
based CAPEs of 1000 to 2500 J/kg noted at this time. Shear values
of 30 to 55 kt are overhead, with the higher values in the
northwest.

A shortwave trof arriving from the southwest will help
instability be released this afternoon and this evening, with
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms developing. Evolution of
frontal boundary expected to be somewhat complex. Falling
pressures over eastern New Mexico expected to cause low-level
winds to trend to east and southeast this evening. Low-level jet
of 30 to 45 knots expected to set up this evening, providing
additional moisture and inflow. Next complicating factor will be
cold front entering northwest part of forecast area around
midnight, providing another focusing mechanism for thunderstorms.
Have increased pops across Oklahoma Panhandle late tonight with
this feature, also adding mention of heavy rain. Expect front to
move through most of the forecast area by sunrise Sunday.

Cockrell

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

Lingering convection may be ongoing to start Sunday, but chances
are storms will be east of the area after ~7am. Given this
departure time, the atmosphere may have enough time to recover
later in the afternoon. This is all contingent also on any stalled
boundary or possible outflow boundaries around eastern parts of
the Panhandles from exiting convection. We may get convection
going again late Sunday afternoon to early evening.

Sunday, an upper level wave will be transitioning through eastern
Colorado and into the Central Plains. Placement of the vorticity
max may result in better precipitation chances east of the
forecast area. However, with the surface trough and possible
boundary/boundaries setting up across eastern parts of the
forecast area we may have some convection for mainly eastern parts
of the Panhandles. With an associated surface low developing in
western parts of the Central Plains, our northern zones may also
have some thunderstorms. Low chances overall for precipitation,
but nonetheless severe weather will be possible. Better chances
will be for east/southeastern parts of the Texas Panhandle near
the "better" instability. Bulk shear values around 50-60 knots
will be plenty to make up for regarding lower end MLCAPE values
around 1000-1500 J/kg (higher with the NAM though) late
afternoon/early evening when the cap erodes.

Monday we transition to zonal flow before a ridge starts to build
in over the region. Placement of the ridge will make it possible
for small impulses to ride over the northern periphery of the
broad anticyclonic flow. This may result in at least small chances
for thunderstorms as we reach peak heating late afternoon to
early evening each day after Monday. Storms may very well be
ordinary pulse type thunderstorms as we reach peak heating.
Overall, chances are low at this time for precipitation, but given
the time of year we cannot rule out at least some isolated severe
weather in the extended.

Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                53  85  61  91  62 /  10   0   5  10  20
Beaver OK                  51  84  60  92  64 /  20   0   5  10  10
Boise City OK              46  81  55  89  59 /  10   0   5  10   5
Borger TX                  53  88  63  94  65 /  10   0   5  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              52  87  61  94  63 /  10   0   5  10  10
Canyon TX                  53  87  60  93  62 /  10   0   5  10  20
Clarendon TX               57  84  63  91  64 /  10   0   5  10  20
Dalhart TX                 47  83  57  90  60 /   5   0   5  10  10
Guymon OK                  48  84  58  91  62 /  10   0   5  10  10
Hereford TX                53  87  61  94  63 /  10   0   5  10  10
Lipscomb TX                54  86  63  93  65 /  20   0   5  10  20
Pampa TX                   53  84  62  91  64 /  10   0   5  10  20
Shamrock TX                58  85  63  91  66 /  20   0   5  10  30
Wellington TX              60  86  64  92  66 /  20   5   5   5  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

89/3/24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
324 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-230830-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
324 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible across central and eastern parts of
the combined Panhandles this afternoon. Chances increase to the
north later tonight. Thunderstorms could be severe with large
hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are also possible late Sunday, and each day Tuesday
through Friday for late afternoon to early evening time periods.
At this time, chances for thunderstorms reaching severe limits
will be isolated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed today and tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     HAIL             LAKE MCCLELLAN          35.22N 100.87W
06/22/2019  E2.75 INCH       GRAY               TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1901002

BEAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1159 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1158 PM     HAIL             MCLEAN                  35.23N 100.60W
06/22/2019  E1.00 INCH       GRAY               TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1901003

BEAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1202 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HAIL             MCLEAN                  35.23N 100.60W
06/23/2019  E1.25 INCH       GRAY               TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1901004

BEAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1205 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 AM     HAIL             3 S LAKE MCCLELLAN      35.17N 100.87W
06/23/2019  E2.00 INCH       DONLEY             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1901005

BEAT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1211 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

OKZ002-230600-
Texas OK-
1211 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TEXAS COUNTY UNTIL 100
AM CDT...

At 1210 AM CDT, automated weather equipment reported 51 mph winds
associated with a strong thunderstorm 12 miles northeast of
Eva moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hooker, Tyrone, Optima, Eva, Hough, Baker and Adams.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
the Panhandle of Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3672 10096 3671 10203 3699 10203 3700 10094
TIME...MOT...LOC 0510Z 268DEG 30KT 3697 10169

LFM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1248 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

OKZ002-TXZ001>004-230630-
Texas OK-Sherman TX-Dallam TX-Ochiltree TX-Hansford TX-
1248 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...SHERMAN...
HANSFORD...SOUTHEASTERN DALLAM AND WESTERN OCHILTREE COUNTIES UNTIL
130 AM CDT...

At 1248 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles northeast of Stratford to Spearman.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Perryton, Spearman, Stratford, Gruver, Farnsworth, Conlen, Waka and
Texhoma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
the Panhandle of Oklahoma...and the Panhandle of Texas.

LAT...LON 3651 10122 3650 10095 3650 10075 3606 10087
      3609 10251 3650 10208 3650 10203 3654 10203
      3661 10196
TIME...MOT...LOC 0548Z 247DEG 33KT 3646 10200 3621 10119

LFM