Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
334 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...
...Tonight...

Previously issued mesoscale discussion still valid and is
displayed below.

...Severe weather and localized flooding expected today...

* Synoptic Overview: An upper low located over the White Sands, NM
  area is progressing eastward this afternoon, with reflection of
  a surface low starting to develop southwest of Hereford, TX.
  Water vapor is showing multiple shortwave trofs rotating around
  the parent upper low, with one such feature extending from
  northeastern New Mexico southeast to Happy, TX. Subsidence
  behind this shortwave is expected to get pinched off as another
  shortwave following from Plainview, TX towards Santa Rosa, NM
  moves towards the northeast.

* Mesoscale: Surface cold front has progressed through most of the Texas
  Panhandle and has since stalled just south of Hereford, TX
  northeast to Lefors, TX and points northeast of there. It is not
  expected that this front will make any further forward
  progression this afternoon. A surface dryline is making eastward
  progression into the southern Texas Panhandle, and is currently
  draped along the Interstate 27 corridor. Latest available data
  from the special sounding launch at 17/18Z shows a significant
  dry layer below H6 and a capping inversion around H8. In
  addition, very steep adiabatic lapse of 8 to 9 degrees C/km will
  be supportive of rapid growth on any storms that can form along
  the frontal boundary or in the warm, moist sector. As insolation
  from sunlight at KAMA has not occurred, forcing along the quasi-
  stationary boundary will be dependent upon dynamical and
  mechanical lift provided by passing short wave features.
  Meanwhile, ahead of the front and dryline in the southeast Texas
  Panhandle, convective activity will be supported by MLCAPE
  presently in the 1000-2000 J/kg range with dew point
  temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Wind shear values are
  expected to increase through the afternoon and evening hours as
  the left jet exit region begins to overspread the southeastern
  Panhandles. Latest hi-res CAMs analysis suggests that 0-6km bulk
  shear values of 45 to 50 kts will increase to around 50 to 60
  kts late this afternoon and evening.

* Threats: Hail size up to the size of 2 inches may be realized in
  the far eastern Texas Panhandle in the warm, moist airmass ahead
  of both the frontal boundary and dryline. Further west, hail
  sizes may approach the size of golf balls. The hail threat will
  largely exist in these regions through about 7 to 9 PM this
  evening. Wind threats, though, will be conditional on
  proximity to the frontal boundary and the presence of lower
  level inversion layers. Much like the hail threat, expect that
  the greatest threat will be in the far eastern Texas Panhandle
  with speeds up to 70 MPH being possible. Finally, the tornado
  threat will be conditional on storms becoming surface based for
  any period of time, with this threat being most likely in the
  warm, moist sector across the east and southeastern sections of
  the Texas Panhandle. Once the low level jet kicks in closer to
  sunset, any existing storms could potentially have increased
  lower level spin to work off of in the 6 to 9 PM CDT window.
  Meanwhile, along the cold front and near the dryline in the
  central and southwestern Texas Panhandle, brief spin up
  tornadoes cannot be ruled out as localized boundary interactions
  from storms could occur. By late this evening, the severe
  weather potential will be out of the area.

* Hydrology: The presence of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary
  draped southwest to northeast across the Texas Panhandle, along
  with overrunning forcing with passing shortwaves, will support
  the potential for storms training over the same areas. PW values
  are not the best, with anywhere from 0.50" in the southwest to
  central Panhandles and 1.00" in the far southeast. With that
  said, any storms that develop along the boundary will have storm
  motion favoring the northeast with more storms developing
  behind it. Given the drier airmass that these storms have to
  overcome at first, precipitation amounts will be light at best.
  As storms precipitate and moisten the dry environments in the
  southwestern and central Texas Panhandle, precipitation amounts
  should increase and be supportive for spots of localized
  flooding.

* Timing & Location: Present thunderstorm activity is moving into
  southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This activity should
  remain isolated in nature for the next couple of hours. However,
  the next shortwave trough that moves in will be the one to kick
  off activity across the south and central Texas Panhandle
  around 3 PM CDT. This same shortwave trough feature will make it
  to the northeastern Panhandles around 4 to 6 PM CDT, starting
  storms in that area. The frontal boundary and dryline will start
  to make eastward and southeastward progress around sunset,
  quickly making it into the main part of Oklahoma by 8 to 10 PM CDT
  tonight. Lingering thunderstorm activity will persist through
  about 1 to 3 AM CDT tomorrow morning.

* Summary: A complicated forecast scenario is developing this
  afternoon, with strong to severe thunderstorms possible across
  most of the region. Storms have formed and more will form around
  3 PM CDT along and north of the Interstate 40 corridor. As the
  low level jet kicks in around 5 to 9 PM CDT, storms will develop
  in the southeastern Texas Panhandle, quickly congealing into a
  line as it moves east through about 9 PM CDT. Severe weather and
  localized flooding potential should diminish rapidly thereafter,
  with lingering shower and thunderstorm activity continuing
  through about 1 to 3 AM Thursday morning.

Bieda

&&

.LONG TERM...
...Thursday through Wednesday...

Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail Thursday through Friday night
in the wake of departing sharp mid-level trof.  Mid-level ridge
passes on Saturday.  Weak shortwave trof passes on Saturday night
and Sunday above still-dry atmosphere.  Models and ensembles in
less than ideal agreement thereafter.  General expectation is for
development of positively-tilted trof to develop over Rockies on
Monday, with slow progression toward Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
through Wednesday.  Potential for unsettled weather, including
rain and thunderstorms, will increase in later periods as
atmosphere has time to moisten.

Cockrell

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

16/03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
334 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-181100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
334 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected. Some storms will become strong to
severe, with severe storms most likely across the southeastern
two-thirds of the Combined Panhandles. Large hail, damaging
winds, and heavy rains, possibly leading to localized flooding
will all be possible. Additionally, an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night, and again Monday
night and Tuesday. The threat for severe weather with these
storms appears minimal at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be ready for activation through this evening.

Cockrell

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
436 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

TXZ016-017-172230-
Randall TX-Deaf Smith TX-
436 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN RANDALL AND DEAF
SMITH COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 436 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Bootleg, or 18 miles west of Hereford, moving west
at 10 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hereford, Bootleg, Dawn and Simms.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 10304 3511 10220 3475 10214 3475 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 094DEG 7KT 3491 10270

Ward

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
440 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     TORNADO          7 NE GLAZIER            36.08N 100.18W
04/17/2019                   LIPSCOMB           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROPE TORNADO LIFTED ACCORDING TO SPOTTERS IN THE AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900506

BIEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
443 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     TORNADO          2 S HIGGINS             36.09N 100.03W
04/17/2019                   LIPSCOMB           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA AND MULTIPLE SPOTTERS REPORTING A NEW
            TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR HIGGINS, TX.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900507

BIEDA