Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
649 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Scattered thunderstorms currently over southern Texas Panhandle
will pose a threat to AMA for the next couple of hours.  Variable
winds gusting to 35 kt or higher can be expected.  Thunderstorms
in northeast New Mexico may impact northern terminals later this
evening.  Expecting surface winds to become light northerly by
late this evening at all terminals.  Apart from brief visibility
reductions and lower cloud bases in thunderstorms, VFR conditions
expected to prevail next 24 hours.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 304 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019/

SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday...

Low amplitude trof over central NM will make it's way across the
Panhandles today. Convection already firing up over the eastern NM
mountains. Northeast winds continue to advect high dewpoints to
most of the Panhandles. Dewpoints drop off once across the NM/TX
state line. Given the temperature/dewpoint profiles, solid
inverted V profiles will be set up. Overall the area is supposed
to remain capped, but as the wave approaches, expect that there
may be some added lift to help possibly overcome the cap. The
earlier storms develop the more CAPE that they can tap into, as we
get later in the evening, and storms develop more off the
convective temperature, then we may be dealing with some
subsidence to slow down the updrafts, as well as lower CAPE
values. Right now the max hail threat looks to be golf ball, and
wind threat looks to be in the 70 mph range. But if storms can tap
into those higher CAPE values, then we could be looking at larger
hail and stronger downdrafts. Vertical profiles don't support the
best organization, and therefore storms could quickly go severe,
but also be short lived. This could very well be a multi-cell
setup with multiple outflow boundaries where new storms develop
off the boundaries. Additionally, the slow progression of the
storms could suggest localized flooding threat, especially if
multiple storms fire up over the same area. If storm try to line
out later tonight, then it will be more of a wind threat from that
point on.

Sunday there could be some lingering storms as a subtle, weak
disturbance stalls over the northern TX and OK Panhandle.  CAPE
values are much lower than today in the 750-1500J/kg range, but it's
still possible to get some severe storms. As it stands might be just
enough instability and lift to get storms going through the day, but
as we move into the evening, the wave will kick east and the
Panhandles will be under subsidence, limiting precipitation chances.

Weber

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday

The week begins with a few days of thunderstorm chances. Monday, and
especially Monday night, is probably the best chance for more
widespread severe weather. By mid week, a drier pattern sets up and
we may be precipitation free into at least parts of the weekend.
Overall, tricky forecast determining which days will see severe
based on a few limiting factors.

By Sunday night/Monday morning an exiting shortwave has sped up
from 24 hours ago. We looked to be in a weak northwest flow
pattern Monday/Monday night in the wake of the exiting shortwave,
but now its more of a transition between northwest flow in the
morning to southwest/westerly flow in the afternoon and evening
hours. Thunderstorms will be possible late Monday afternoon as an
embedded shortwave approaches the region. MLCAPE values are around
1000-2000 J/kg (little higher with the NAM) Monday afternoon.
Wind shear is somewhat unorganized and in the lower/mid levels is
very weak early on. Any storms that form may be pulse/ordinary
thunderstorms and not very organized. Shortwave begins to eject
out later Monday afternoon to early evening. Then we start to see
more available energy loft as the cap begins to break down late in
the afternoon/early evening and lift increases. Given the timing
of precipitation and elevated nature of the storms we may end up
with a MCS/cluster of thunderstorms developing after 6/7pm and
moving from the west/northwest to the east/southeast overnight.
Could end up being widespread and impacting a good portion of the
forecast area, especially Texas Panhandle. Flash flooding could
become a concern along with damaging winds.

Tuesday becomes a little tricky. Models are not all handling the
upper levels the same. Initially wanted to trend PoPs down, but
decided not to at this time. Once the overnight convection from
Monday exits we will need to see how things recover and any possible
remnant boundaries in the area. Current thought is Tuesday and
Tuesday night is a downward trend for precipitation across the area.
Will need to monitor this trend and watch how the Monday/Monday
night convection pans out, but not too confident in precipitation
chances Tues/Tues night.

Wednesday onward the forecast is currently dry. Parts of the weekend
may end up with thunderstorms. Additionally we may be looking at
temperatures in the upper 80 and into the 90s through the end of
the week.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

03/36

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
259 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-160800-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
259 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Severe storms producing large hail and damaging wind gusts are
possible today. Storms will be possible across all parts of the
Panhandles.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated severe storms can not be rule out for Sunday, however
potential appears somewhat low. Potential for severe storms is
expected to increase some Monday and possible Tuesday as upper
level disturbances continue to move across the area and
moisture/instability increase. Locally heavy rainfall may
accompany these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely tonight and may be needed at times
through Tuesday.

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