Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
647 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected to continue for the
next several hours, with general trend to spread east.
Occasional MVFR visibilities and variable winds gusting above 35
in thunderstorms can be expected.  Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected to prevail, with MVFR ceilings expected between 12z and
19z Sunday.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 409 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019/

SHORT TERM...This Afternoon through Tonight...

Evidence of shortwave trough with ample lift riding the backside of
a ridge axis extending from the TX/NM border up into northwestern
CO. A surface trough is also noted in the Raton Mesa extending
southwest in northeast NM and clipping the western OK Panhandle. A
quasi dryline was just east of the surface trough extending
southeast from near Dalhart to Amarillo. Finally, there a westward
advancing outflow boundary from storms in the eastern Panhandles now
near Spearman to Claude. Convection initiated along the surface
trough dryline intersection around 18z while other less intense
storms continue to fire along the outflow boundary in the eastern
Texas Panhandle.

The overall environment this afternoon is characterized by modest
low level and mid level theta-E advection from 850mb to 700mb.
Surface dew points are in the high 50s to low 60s across most of the
Panhandles. The combination of low and mid level lapse rates amidst
cool 500mb temperatures support MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg.
Surface temperatures in the mid 80s result in LCLs around 1000 m in
the eastern zones to around 2000 m in the western zones. Even though
the mid level winds are only around 20 to 30 knots, good directional
shear is noted, resulting in 30 to 40 knots of effective bulk shear.
A large supercell has already been sampled in this environment and
is ongoing northwest of Dalhart as of 21z. Right mover storm motion
will take this storm southeast at around 15 knots into better
moisture and instability. The only caveat is how the outflow
boundary might affect the storm as it moves west, however this might
act to enhance inflow based on current boundary orientation. Very
large hail and damaging RFD winds along with a few microburst will
be possible with this storm and any other discrete supercells that
can form. Strong rotation in the mesocyclone has been noted via
radar base velocity, but the high LCL height and lack of better low
level helicity should keep tornado risk low. However, low level
helicity is expected to improve during the evening hours as the
storm moves into better moisture, so the tornado threat will have to
be monitored closely.

Storm coverage will increase into the evening as convective mode
becomes more linear (already showing signs of this in eastern NM)
with more LSA associated with shortwave and increased convergence
along the surface trough. DCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg will
support severe gust with any bowing segments this evening. Storms
should exit the area between 06z and 12z, with a few lingering
storms developing in the eastern Panhandles on outflow boundaries
after 06z.

Ward

LONG TERM...Sunday through Saturday...
Slow-moving digging mid-level trof will advance eastward through
southwest CONUS Sunday through Tuesday night toward Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles.  Models then generally agree that trof will
move more quickly Wednesday and Thursday, most likely crossing the
Panhandles on Thursday. This pattern supports continued feed of
deep rich moisture into the Panhandles with corresponding support
for increased instability.  Shear expected to be maximized on
Sunday afternoon and evening with values of 35 to 50 kt expected.
Severe thunderstorms likely to occur Sunday afternoon and evening.
Very high PWATs are forecast to be in place from Sunday evening
through Wednesday, with the threat of heavy rains continuing
through Wednesday night.  Shear values Monday through Wednesday
night are expected to be generally below 30 kt, with threat for
widespread severe weather not expected to be as high as on
Sunday.  Severe thunderstorms will still be possible Monday
through Wednesday night, but daily thunderstorm activity will
alter the environment, setting the stage for future developments.

Expect thunderstorm activity to temporarily come to an end Friday
and Friday night with the departure of the mid-level trof.

Cockrell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  81  61  82  63 /  80  60  60  30  40
Beaver OK                  61  83  64  85  65 /  40  30  70  30  40
Boise City OK              54  81  58  85  59 /  40  50  50  30  50
Borger TX                  61  83  64  85  65 /  80  50  60  20  40
Boys Ranch TX              61  82  62  85  62 /  60  60  60  30  60
Canyon TX                  62  82  62  83  63 /  70  60  60  30  40
Clarendon TX               64  81  63  83  65 /  60  50  60  30  30
Dalhart TX                 56  80  59  85  59 /  70  60  60  30  60
Guymon OK                  58  82  62  85  62 /  40  40  60  20  50
Hereford TX                62  83  61  83  62 /  70  60  60  40  50
Lipscomb TX                62  83  65  84  66 /  50  30  70  40  40
Pampa TX                   61  80  62  81  63 /  60  40  60  30  40
Shamrock TX                65  81  65  83  67 /  80  30  60  30  30
Wellington TX              66  83  66  85  67 /  80  30  60  30  30

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

03/03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
357 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-021100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
357 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. Some storms will
become severe through this evening. Large hail, damaging winds
and locally heavy rainfall are the main threats from these storms,
however an isolated tornado can not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There will likely be some threat for severe storms each afternoon
and overnight period through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall will also
accompany these storms and repeated days of thunderstorms
producing heavy rainfall will likely lead to an increasing threat
for flooding through Wednesday night. Thunderstorms may also occur
Thursday and Thursday night.  Currently, it appears the greatest
potential for large hail, and damaging winds and tornadoes will be
Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be ready activation through this evening and again
Sunday afternoon and evening.

Cockrell

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
346 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

TXZ019-020-012145-
Donley TX-Collingsworth TX-
346 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COLLINGSWORTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
DONLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 346 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Lutie, or 10 miles northeast of Wellington,
moving east at 30 mph. Additional storms were located north of
Memphis and south of Wellington.

Up to nickel size hail and wind gusts of up to 55 mph will be
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wellington, Dodson, Dozier, Lutie, Quail and Samnorwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
the Panhandle of Texas.

LAT...LON 3475 10002 3475 10075 3518 10034 3518 10000
      3477 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 281DEG 25KT 3497 10010

Ferguson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
445 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

TXZ007-012-012245-
Potter TX-Moore TX-
445 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN POTTER AND MOORE
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 445 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles east of Masterson, or 18 miles south of Dumas, moving north at
25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of up to 55 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dumas, Masterson, Four Way and Lake Meredith.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
the Panhandle of Texas.

LAT...LON 3554 10205 3600 10202 3600 10162 3550 10163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 189DEG 20KT 3561 10186

Ferguson

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