Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
556 PM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms will likely affect the AMA TAF site later this
evening into the early morning hours. DHT and GUY are expected to
remain thunderstorm free. Low clouds in the IFR/LIFR range are
expected to develop at all TAF sites early Saturday morning. These
low clouds are then expected to clear out by mid day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019/

SHORT TERM...through tonight
Temperatures today will reach in the mid to upper 70s with showers
and thunderstorms possible for much of the area starting tonight and
going into the overnight hours. Upper level analysis has us under
zonal flow aloft becoming southwesterly this evening. A strong upper
level jet shown at h25 will set up to south of the area over south
Texas over the Gulf of Baja, and Baja Peninsula and extend further
out into the Pacific ocean. The jet will consist of speeds up to 130
knots just before exiting a shortwave trough over the Baja Peninsula
and southern California around 06Z Saturday. Parts of west Texas
will be under divergent southwest flow overnight tonight which will
bring plenty of lift to our area for precipitation. Examining h5
heights and vorticity advection, multiple rounds of in-bedded waves
in the southwest flow could pass over the area between 7 pm tonight
and 7 am Saturday.  Positive vorticity advection associated with
these waves will enhance lift with the divergent flow aloft.

Between h85 and h70 positive theta-e advection is shown moving over
the majority of the CWA except for a small portion of the far
northwest combined Panhandles from 00z to 09Z Saturday. By 09Z the
theta-e advection begins to diminish from west to east. Examining
the models at the surface, moisture at the surface begins to surge
in from the southeast bringing dewpoints in the 40s to our far
western portions of the fa and nearing 60s in our easter fa starting
around 7 pm tonight. MLCAPE will range from 500 J/Kg in the
northwest to upwards of 2800 J/Kg in the southeast Texas Panhandle
around 06Z Saturday. Strong to marginally severe storms will be
possible in the southeast Texas Panhandle with bulk shear values
will reach 30-35 knots along to accompany the instability. Large
hail and 60 mph wind gust cannot be ruled out for the SE Texas
Panhandle as this system moves through in the early morning hours of
Saturday. Threat for tornados is low, but an isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out entirely especially in the SE CWA. CAMS are showing
isolated storms starting between 8 and 10 pm tonight with a line of
storms developing over the western portions of the CWA by 1 am
Saturday then moving east and exiting the combined Panhandles around
7 am. Saturday morning lows will end up with low 40s in the
northwest to low 50s in the east.

Hoffeditz

LONG TERM...Saturday through Friday
After lingering showers and storms exiting the Panhandles tomorrow
morning, precipitation will be in limited supply throughout the
remainder of the long term period. Northwest flow aloft will keep
us dry through Tuesday. Temperatures will slowly rise into the 70s
and 80s through Monday. In particular on Tuesday, a surface
trough will set up over parts of eastern New Mexico establishing
SW flow. Latest 05/12Z numerical guidance shows H850 temps of +26C
to +28C across the region where high temperatures on Tuesday may
peak out into the lower 90s for parts of the region.

A disturbance will drop SE from the NW CONUS into the Four
Corners region with a 110 kt jet by midday Wednesday. This will
help to develop rapid lee surface cyclogenesis with its center
north of the CWA across western Kansas by Wednesday afternoon.
Downslope compressing southwest winds Wednesday afternoon in-
conjunction with steep height gradients will results in strong
winds in the dry-slot in the developing low pressure to the
north. Wind headlines maybe needed along with the Fire Weather
risk that will be discussed further in the Fire Weather Section.

On the backside of the departing surface low late Wednesday/early
Thursday, a cold front will move through the region. After highs
above average leading up to Wednesday, in the wake of the front,
temperatures for the remainder of the long term period will drop
below average with highs in the 50s and 60s.

Meccariello

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible as we go
into the day on Wednesday, especially across the southern and
southwestern TX Panhandle. Current forecast shows RFTI values
ranging from 4 to 6 across the region with min RH values dropping
to as low as 10 percent. This is coupled with 20 ft. winds
sustained at 25-30 kts with higher gusts possible. This will have
to be closely monitored as we get closer to next Wednesday.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

15/77

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
333 PM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-061100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
333 PM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms can be expected across most of the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles tonight. Some storms may become strong to
marginally severe this evening. Large hail and wind gusts up to
60 mph will be the primary severe weather threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday. A few storms may become
strong to marginally severe early Saturday across the eastern
portions of the Panhandles. Hail up to quarter size along with
damaging winds will be the primary severe weather threats.

Strong westerly winds are expected on Wednesday which may require
the issuance of a Wind headline. Critical fire weather conditions
are also possible on Wednesday across the western portions of the
Panhandles due to the strong westerly winds and low humidities.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
critical fire weather conditions Wednesday.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
832 PM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019

TXZ011-012-016-017-317-060200-
Potter TX-Palo Duro Canyon TX-Randall TX-Deaf Smith TX-Oldham TX-
832 PM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RANDALL...EASTERN OLDHAM...
NORTHEASTERN DEAF SMITH AND POTTER COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 832 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southwest of Wildorado to 3 miles
southwest of Canyon. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Amarillo, Canyon, Lake Tanglewood, Mescalero Park, Bushland, Valley
De Oro, Boys Ranch, Wildorado, Palo Duro Canyon and Timbercreek
Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 10244 3561 10227 3535 10162 3498 10163
      3483 10178
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 217DEG 34KT 3513 10234 3494 10195

LG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
852 PM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019

TXZ011-012-060215-
Potter TX-Oldham TX-
852 PM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN OLDHAM AND WESTERN POTTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 852 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Wildorado, or 16 miles east of Vega, moving north
at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Boys Ranch and Valley De Oro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3523 10226 3563 10232 3562 10179 3519 10199
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 195DEG 36KT 3530 10213

LG