Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Amarillo, TX

Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

778 
WWUS84 KAMA 100835
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
335 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-102200-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0009.190410T1600Z-190411T0300Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
335 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

* Affected Area...In Oklahoma...Cimarron...Texas and Beaver. In 
  Texas...Dallam...Sherman...Hansford...Ochiltree...Lipscomb... 
  Hartley...Moore...Hutchinson...Roberts...Hemphill...Oldham... 
  Potter...Carson...Gray...Wheeler...Deaf Smith...Randall... 
  Armstrong...Donley...Collingsworth and Palo Duro Canyon.

* 20 Foot Winds...Southwest to west 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to
  70 mph. Wind shifting to the northwest behind a cold front
  between mid to late evening and midnight tonight.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Red Flag Threat Index...5 to 7.

* Timing...Late this morning through this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

Schneider

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

744 
WWUS84 KAMA 102036
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
336 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-110300-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190411T0300Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
336 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ALL OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

* Affected Area...In Oklahoma...Cimarron...Texas and Beaver. In 
  Texas...Dallam...Sherman...Hansford...Ochiltree...Lipscomb... 
  Hartley...Moore...Hutchinson...Roberts...Hemphill...Oldham... 
  Potter...Carson...Gray...Wheeler...Deaf Smith...Randall... 
  Armstrong...Donley...Collingsworth and Palo Duro Canyon.

* 20 Foot Winds...Southwest 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 5 percent.

* Red Flag Threat Index...6 to 9.

* Timing...Through 10 pm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
616 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Good flying weather continues through tonight before high winds
begin Wednesday morning.  No clouds other than cirrus expected.

Light to moderate south to southwest surface winds expected
overnight as surface low pressure trof migrates eastward across
the Panhandles.  Powerful low pressure system will intensify
during the day on Wednesday as it moves through the eastern half
of Colorado.  Associated Pacific cold front will move eastward
across the forecast area during mainly the afternoon hours.

Tightening gradients at all levels will lead to strong southwest
winds through a deep layer of the atmosphere.  Southwest surface
winds expected to commence gusting at or above 35 kt around 15z to
16z.  As surface low deepens and mixing to a greater height
occurs, southwest surface gusts of 50 to 60 kt expected by 19z or
20z.  Apart from any visibility reductions in blowing dust, VFR
conditions expected next 24 hours.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 421 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019/

SHORT TERM...

Southwest winds are expected to increase into the 35 to 45 mph range
by afternoon across much of the Panhandles as a surface low
strengthens in southeast Colorado.  As the low moves to the east, a
cold front will surge southward and winds will be just as strong if
not stronger behind it.  Therefore, will continue with the High Wind
Watch for all of the area for much of Wednesday into Thursday.  The
winds may stay up around 40 mph with higher gusts into Thursday
afternoon across the northeast CWA and we are not sure if they will
stay this strong across the rest of the area, but any slight shift
in the track of the low and the rest of the area could have stronger
winds longer as well.

Some light rain showers and snow showers will be possible across the
northern CWA behind the cold front Wednesday night, but any
precipitation looks to be light at this time.

Highs on Thursday will be some 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

LG

LONG TERM...

The main item of interest in the extended forecast is the potential
winter precipitation on Saturday across portions of the Panhandles.
The last ~24 hours of raw model guidance has been in remarkable
agreement with the track, speed and strength of a 500mb trough as
it digs south and then east across the Southern Plains as an open
wave, possibly becoming a closed low as it crosses the southern
Rocky Mountains. This would result in the formation of a 700mb low
somewhere in east central NM or West Texas, near the southern
Panhandles while a surface low develops near the Big Bend region
of TX. This would tap into the remnant Canadian airmass across the
central plains while isentropic lift and upslope flow develops
ahead of the low across the Panhandles Saturday morning. Moreover,
retained likely pops for precip on Saturday. Precip type is
currently looking like rain initially Friday evening, switching to
snow across portions of the area Saturday morning, then back to
rain Saturday afternoon. There is currently good overlap of lift
and saturation within the DGZ across most of the area Saturday
morning possibly into Saturday evening. The main question will be
with the thermal profile below 850mb which will mostly depend on
how strong and how far north the 700mb low verifies. Most guidance
suggest surface wet bulb temperatures hover right around 0
degrees C while CAA brings 850mb temperatures down just below 0
deg C Saturday on the north/northwest side of the sfc low. This
would likely support accumulating snowfall for some of the
Panhandles , especially in any areas of deformation where the
heavier precip will setup. Also, there are some hints of CSI based
on weakly negative saturated EPV Saturday morning, which also
suggest some pockets of heavier precip.

Of course, all of this doesn't matter if the system changes
course, speed or strength. Even though there is good model
agreement now (although the Canadian has changed its tune to
warmer and drier), the upper wave won't be sampled well until
Thursday. It has happened many times before where models are in
agreement this far out, but as soon as sampling occurs it start to
become more apparent that the system may shift south/north, be
weaker or slower, and even subtle changes can have a large impacts
on snow forecasts. The main idea right now is to stay informed by
trusted weather leaders, and try to avoid getting caught up in
hype surrounding any deterministic snowfall forecast you may see
on social media at this stage in the game.

Ward

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions will be possible across all of the
Panhandles on Wednesday. Therefore, will keep the fire weather watch
going for Wednesday.  Southwest winds at 35 to 45 mph with gusts
close to 70 mph and low relative humidity values below 15 percent
will cause the critical fire weather conditions.  The critical fire
weather conditions will slowly wane during the evening on Wednesday
behind a cold front as relative humidity values increase.  Winds are
expected to remain strong on Thursday, but relative humidity values
should remain above 20 percent.

LG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                56  79  34  54  30 /   0   5   5   5   0
Beaver OK                  56  86  32  50  26 /   0   5  20   5   0
Boise City OK              50  72  25  49  23 /   0   5  40   5   5
Borger TX                  56  83  34  56  30 /   0   5   5   5   0
Boys Ranch TX              54  79  33  55  30 /   0   5   5   5   0
Canyon TX                  54  79  34  55  30 /   0   5   5   5   0
Clarendon TX               57  87  37  58  32 /   0   5   5   5   0
Dalhart TX                 50  73  27  52  24 /   0   5  20   5   5
Guymon OK                  54  80  29  51  26 /   0   5  30   5   0
Hereford TX                54  77  34  56  30 /   0   5   5   5   5
Lipscomb TX                58  87  34  53  31 /   0   5  10   5   0
Pampa TX                   57  83  34  54  29 /   0   5   5   5   0
Shamrock TX                55  89  37  58  32 /   0   0   5   5   0
Wellington TX              56  91  39  61  33 /   0   0   5   5   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...
     Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...
     Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...
     Randall...Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler.

     High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening
     for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...
     Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...
     Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...
     Randall...Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...Oldham.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening
     for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

&&

03/77

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
324 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-100830-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
324 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon
through early this evening across the far western Texas Panhandle
with elevated fire weather conditions expected across the western
Oklahoma and the west central Texas Panhandles. The combination of
south to southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 25 to 30 mph
along with relative humidity values of 10 to 15 percent and
receptive fuels will result in the increased fire danger this
afternoon through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong westerly to southwesterly winds are expected Wednesday
becoming northwesterly Wednesday night and remaining strong
through Thursday. A High Wind Watch remains in effect through
Thursday across all of the Panhandles.

Critical fire weather conditions are likely
to develop Wednesday across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles due
to strong southwesterly winds, low relative humidity values, and
dry receptive fuels. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect.

Areas of blowing dust are possible across a majority of the
western and central Texas Panhandle Wednesday. Any blowing dust
will reduce visibilities at times.

Some snowfall is possible across portions of the Panhandles on
Saturday. It is still too early to say how much snow might occur
or exactly where it might occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated to critical fire weather conditions today and critical
fire weather conditions on Wednesday.