Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Amarillo, TX

315 
WWUS84 KAMA 130927 CCA
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
327 AM CST Wed Feb 13 2019

CORRECTED 20 FOOT WINDS

OKZ001-002-TXZ001>004-006>009-011>014-016>019-317-132200-
/O.UPG.KAMA.FW.A.0004.190213T1700Z-190214T0300Z/
/O.COR.KAMA.FW.W.0004.190213T1700Z-190214T0300Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Hartley-Moore-
Hutchinson-Roberts-Oldham-Potter-Carson-Gray-Deaf Smith-Randall-
Armstrong-Donley-Palo Duro Canyon-
327 AM CST Wed Feb 13 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ALL 
BUT THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FOR THE 
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...

The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for strong winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening. The Fire
Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...In Oklahoma...Cimarron and Texas. In Texas... 
  Dallam...Sherman...Hansford...Ochiltree...Hartley...Moore... 
  Hutchinson...Roberts...Oldham...Potter...Carson...Gray...Deaf 
  Smith...Randall...Armstrong...Donley and Palo Duro Canyon.

* 20 Foot Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Red Flag Threat Index...5 to 7

* Timing...Beginning around 11 AM today, and ending around 9 PM
  this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

Cockrell

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

671 
WWUS84 KAMA 132053
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
253 PM CST Wed Feb 13 2019

OKZ001-002-TXZ001>004-006>009-011>014-016>019-317-140300-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190214T0300Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Hartley-Moore-
Hutchinson-Roberts-Oldham-Potter-Carson-Gray-Deaf Smith-Randall-
Armstrong-Donley-Palo Duro Canyon-
253 PM CST Wed Feb 13 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ALL BUT THE
EASTERNMOST COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FOR THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...

* Affected Area...In Oklahoma...Cimarron and Texas. In Texas... 
  Dallam...Sherman...Hansford...Ochiltree...Hartley...Moore... 
  Hutchinson...Roberts...Oldham...Potter...Carson...Gray...Deaf 
  Smith...Randall...Armstrong...Donley and Palo Duro Canyon.

* 20 Foot Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 
  mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 6 percent.

* Red Flag Threat Index...5 to 7.

* Timing...Critical fire weather conditions will continue until
  around 9 PM this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

Rutt/Andrade

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

030 
WWUS84 KAMA 140246
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
846 PM CST Wed Feb 13 2019

OKZ001-002-TXZ001>004-006>009-011>014-016>019-317-140400-
/O.EXP.KAMA.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190214T0300Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Hartley-Moore-
Hutchinson-Roberts-Oldham-Potter-Carson-Gray-Deaf Smith-Randall-
Armstrong-Donley-Palo Duro Canyon-
846 PM CST Wed Feb 13 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ALL BUT THE
EASTERNMOST COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FOR THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...

Winds have decreased and the relative humidity has improved.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1108 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

.AVIATION...

For the 06Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period. High
clouds are expected to progressively move into the region through
the morning hours and into tomorrow afternoon. Broken to overcast
clouds could be in the 10K-15K range tomorrow afternoon. There is
also a concern for low level wind shear tonight at mainly KAMA.
Jet could be around 50 knots about 1000 feet off the ground.
Otherwise, later this afternoon breezy wind conditions are
expected to be 20-25 knots with gusts closer to 35 knots.

Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 509 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019/

AVIATION...

For the 00Z TAFs:

VFR conditions are expected throughout the valid TAF period. Main
concern for this period is the breezy to windy conditions
expected through the afternoon hours tomorrow. Will be breezy at
times tonight as well. Southwesterly wind speeds will peak
tomorrow afternoon around 25 knots gusting to 35 knots at times.
High clouds are also expected tomorrow afternoon as the surface
trough axis edges in from the west.

Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concerns continue to be related to fire weather
conditions, with Wednesday being the chief concern of this forecast
package.

Northwest flow aloft is currently currently in place as longwave
trough currently draped over the eastern Plains heads eastward to
the Great Lakes and Mid-South. Stout upper jets seen on satellite
off the west coast will push downstream over the Rockies by tonight.
This cross barrier flow will induce surface troughing in the lee of
a large portion of the Rockies. The result will be a classic setup
for southwesterly winds at the surface across the Panhandles, with
gradient winds starting to ramp up tonight. Kept lows tonight a bit
on the warm side in deference to these winds.

For Wednesday, expect this gradient to be maintained and even
reinforced as secondary jet approaches from the southern Four
Corners. Tightening gradient should allow winds from aloft to get
down to the surface. Winds should not be extreme as 700mb winds are
only 35 to 45 knots, but still enough to cause issues. Additionally,
the extended period with winds at the surface with at least some
westerly component will lead to low RH values. Main uncertainty
remains the impact of cirrus - the aforementioned secondary jet
should also lead to an increase in cirrus, with thickness having a
potentially adverse effect on mixing potential. Have thus declined
to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch at this time due to this
uncertainty. As for other sensible weather Wednesday, nudged highs
above consensus slightly but did not go whole hog due to the cirrus
concerns. Lows Wednesday night were kept relatively mild due to the
winds continuing into nighttime hours.

Thursday remains a tricky forecast. Screaming 170 knot upper jet
will focus over the central Plains, pushing surface cold front
through the Panhandles. Latest operational NCEP guidance pushes the
weak lead edge of this front into the Panhandles by midday Thursday,
which would decrease fire weather concerns for all but our western
zones. While the CMC is less agressive with this pattern and
maintains westerly winds across more of the CWA, most GEFS members
on on board with the wind shift occurring mid-day for most of the
Panhandles, so am going with the NCEP consensus and keeping things a
bit cooler across the northeastern Panhandles.

Friday, guidance actually returns into a very rough agreement that
another round of lee troughing is in store, driving southwesterly
downslope winds across the western CWA. The result would be similar
to last week with a large temperature gradient west to east across
the CWA. BC grids are still highly tuned to what occurred last week,
so have leaned on them with regards to temperature.

Temperature contrast continues for Saturday as a wave approaches
from the west. Overall, stayed on the cool side as this wave will
drive another cold shot through the Panhandles and these cold fronts
have a tendency of coming in a bit earlier than guidance, which
currently is suggesting an evening frontal passage.

Remainder of the forecast remains highly uncertain. Big trough looks
to swing through the western CONUS, finally forcing the strong zonal
upper jet downstream. Despite the elongated and positive tilt to
this trough, there may be enough moisture return ahead of it to lead
to some precipitation during the Monday/Tuesday period. Too early to
make any pronouncements, but this will be a period to watch for now.

Ferguson

AVIATION...
For the 18Z TAFs, surface winds will increase during the mid to
late morning hours on Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens.
Overall, VFR conditions will continue at KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA
through late Wednesday morning.

02

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely Wednesday
across the Panhandles. Main areas of concern will be the west and
central Panhandles where RH values may drop into the single digits,
winds out of the southwest could gust to 40 mph, and ERC values are
in the 25th to 70th percentile, yielding RFTI values potentially as
high as 7. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Wednesday and
Wednesday evening.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
Thursday. Area of concern will be the southwestern Texas Panhandle,
where wind gusts out of the west northwest as high as 45 mph are
expected in the presence of the same dry fuels as Wednesday.

Ferguson

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...
     Hutchinson...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo Duro
     Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for the following zones: Cimarron...Texas.

&&

99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1104 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-131200-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
1104 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely on
Wednesday across all but the easternmost counties of the Texas
Panhandle, and across the western two-thirds of the Oklahoma
Panhandle due to breezy winds, low relative humidity, and dry
grasses. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM
Wednesday.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be
possible on Thursday across the southwest half of the Texas
Panhandle, with the greatest risk across the southwest one-fourth
of the Texas Panhandle, due to strong winds, low relative
humidity, and dry grasses.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday.

Cockrell