Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Amarillo, TX

Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1137 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2019

.AVIATION...18z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Main story will be the strong wind gusts that are expected
to come in after 15z tomorrow. As it stands 40-50kt surface gusts
will be possible at all TAF sites after 15z. Skies will be mostly
clear with a few high clouds over the TAF period.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2019/

SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight

Zonal H500 flow across the Panhandle will bring fair weather
conditions to the region today under mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be out of the northeast at 10-15 kts with high
temperatures will range from the mid to upper 50s in the northern
Panhandles to lower and mid 60s across the southern TX Panhandle.
Mostly clear skies will also allow our temperatures tonight to
drop to the mid 20s in the NW Panhandles to lower and mid 30s
elsewhere. A rather strong mid level perturbation will work its
way east past the Four Corners Region as we go approach sunrise.
This will result in winds picking up out of the SW 15-20 kts,
especially in the western Panhandles as we approach sunrise
tomorrow morning.

Meccariello

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Monday

A surface and mid low pressure over the Great Basin region will
track eastward across portions of the central and southern Rockies
Tuesday. The surface and mid low will deepen as it tracks towards
the central Plains states Tuesday afternoon and will lift a
frontal boundary northward as a warm front across the forecast
area into Kansas by late Tuesday. Another cold surge will push
southward across the Panhandles Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.

A closed upper low will dig south across the Western states the
middle of this week and then eject eastward across the Great Basin
region by late this week. Low level moisture will advect northward
into the Panhandles Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as a
warm air advection pattern sets up. The short range and medium
range models are all in agreement that thickness values should
mainly be well above 546 and 549 dkm through the end of the week.
Confidence higher on overrunning event with mainly rain and
possibly freezing rain with snow more likely across the northern
and northwestern portions of the forecast area Wednesday night
into Thanksgiving Day. Snow accumulations remaining less than one
inch and more likely a half inch or less. Ice accumulations could
possibly be up to around a tenth of an inch over some portions of
the forecast area if freezing rain prevalent; mainly the east
central into southwest Texas Panhandle. Warmer conditions by
Thanksgiving night into Friday with precipitation being all
liquid. Drier conditions expected by late Friday and Friday night
into early next week.

Schneider

FIRE WEATHER...

Strong gradient westerly 20 foot downsloping winds of 25 to 35 mph
or 30 to 40 mph with gusts near 50 to 60 mph along with minimum
afternoon humidities of 15 to 25 percent Tuesday will allow for
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. The greatest
chance for critical fire weather conditions will be across the
western and southwestern Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. RFTIs
are forecast to be around 4 Tuesday afternoon and, should critical
fire weather conditions develop, the timing would be between 11 AM
and 6 PM Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of
the Panhandles Tuesday due mainly to the very strong winds
expected.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                61  36  52  21  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  59  31  55  19  45 /   0   0   0   0   5
Boise City OK              56  26  45  15  41 /   0   0   5   0  10
Borger TX                  62  38  53  22  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              61  34  51  18  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  61  35  52  20  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               65  36  58  24  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 59  30  47  14  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  58  31  51  17  45 /   0   0   5   0   5
Hereford TX                60  36  51  19  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                61  33  56  23  45 /   0   0   0   0   5
Pampa TX                   60  36  52  21  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                65  37  61  24  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
Wellington TX              67  38  65  25  46 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...
     Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...
     Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...
     Randall...Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler.

     High Wind Watch Tuesday afternoon for the following zones:
     Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...
     Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...
     Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo
     Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman...
     Wheeler.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...
     Texas.

     High Wind Watch Tuesday afternoon for the following zones:
     Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

&&

89/29/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
102 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-260715-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
102 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Strong damaging winds likely Tuesday afternoon and early evening.
Wind gusts up to 70 mph at times.

With the high winds, critical Fire Weather conditions are
expected across the Panhandles as well on Tuesday.

Winter weather is possible on Wednesday night through Thursday
for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Tuesday.