Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Amarillo, TX

252 
WWUS84 KAMA 200229
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
929 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>003-006-007-011-016-201200-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0013.191020T1800Z-191021T0200Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Hartley-Moore-
Oldham-Deaf Smith-
929 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN AND
NORTH- CENTRAL PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, AS WELL AS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...

* Affected Area...In Oklahoma...Cimarron...Texas and Beaver. In 
  Texas...Dallam...Sherman...Hansford...Hartley...Moore...Oldham 
  and Deaf Smith.

* 20 Foot Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Red Flag Threat Index...4 to 6.

* Timing...Critical Fire Weather conditions should start to 
  occur around 1 PM and persist through 9 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

473 
WWUS84 KAMA 200828
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
328 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>003-006-007-011-016-210200-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0013.191020T1800Z-191021T0200Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Hartley-Moore-
Oldham-Deaf Smith-
328 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, AS WELL AS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...

* Affected Area...In Oklahoma...Cimarron...Texas and Beaver. In 
  Texas...Dallam...Sherman...Hansford...Hartley...Moore...Oldham 
  and Deaf Smith.

* 20 Foot Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Red Flag Threat Index...4 to 7.

* Timing...Critical Fire Weather conditions should start to 
  occur around 1 PM and persist through 9 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

065 
WWUS84 KAMA 210159
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
859 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>003-006-007-011-016-210300-
/O.EXP.KAMA.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-191021T0200Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Hartley-Moore-
Oldham-Deaf Smith-
859 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, AS WELL AS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...

Critical fire weather conditions are ending as the 20 foot winds
are diminishing below 15 mph. Relative humidity values will slowly
rise overnight to 35 to 45 percent by daybreak.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1240 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs...
Good flying weather continues today and this evening with no
clouds or visibility restrictions expected.  Light surface winds
expected to trend to from north to east and south this afternoon.

Low-level jet sets up tonight, with low-level wind shear forecast
at all terminals: beginning around 06z Sunday at northern
terminals and around 10z at AMA, with low-level wind shear ending
by 13z.

Mid-level cloud deck expected to move in from the north Sunday
morning, but remaining well within VFR range.  Southwest surface
winds in the 15 to 25 kt range Sunday morning will shift to
northwest late in the forecast with arrival of cold front.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 622 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for the 12Z TAF period at all sites.
Winds will start out of the north at 5-15 kts and shift to more
southerly by 00Z Sunday continuing to the end of the TAF period.
Skies will also remain mostly clear throughout the forecast
period.

Meccariello

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/

SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...

Tranquil weather conditions are expected through the day today with
mostly clear skies. High temperatures will be near average for mid
October for the entire region with values ranging from the low to
mid 70s. Northerly winds behind the cold front will wane as we go
through the day to values around 5-15 kts. As we go into the evening
hours, a lee sfc trough will develop across eastern New Mexico and
SE Colorado which will shift winds to south and south-southwesterly
at 10-15 kts going into tonight. Southerly flow tonight will modify
overnight low temperatures slightly compared to the previous night.

Meccariello

LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday Night...

The Fire Weather threat on Sunday will be the main story as 20 to
30 mph winds with low RH values will pose critical Fire Weather
conditions.

Upper level closed low will setup over the central plains with
the main trof axis over the Four Corners region early Sunday
morning. Well stacked jet over the Panhandles Sunday afternoon,
will allow for decent mixing of stronger winds aloft down to the
surface. In addition very dry air will intrude as a lee surface
low pushes east. Cold front will follow Sunday evening, north
wind shift looks to be in the 15 to 20 mph range with this frontal
passage.

With the cold front through the area, Monday's highs will be in
the 60s, and maybe touching low 70s across the southeast.
Northwest flow will continue for the majority of the work week
with a gradual warming trend before a series of cold fronts
starting as early as Wednesday evening is expected to move
through. There is a great deal of model divergence after the
Wednesday front moves through and therefore have let the blends
take care of Thursday and Friday. But solutions range from snow
to the Panhandles on Friday to possibly very mild and dry.
Uncertainty in pops, weather, and temperatures is high for
Thursday and Friday given the model discrepancies.

Weber

FIRE WEATHER...

Sunday:  Strong west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph is
expected across the western Panhandles.  Relative humidity values
could be as low as 7 percent.  Fuels are driest along the western
Panhandles.  A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the western
Panhandles from 1 PM Sunday through 9 PM Sunday. RFTI values 5 to 6
are expected across the west.  If winds come up just a small amount
and/or RH values come down a percent or two, we could be right back
to the 7 to 8 range.

Spotty elevated conditions will be possible across the northwest
Panhandles on Monday and Tuesday.  This is mainly due to continued
low RH values expected, as wind should be less than 20 mph.

Weber

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...
     Oldham.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for the following zones: Cimarron.

&&

03/36

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
332 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-192045-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
332 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Critical Fire Weather conditions expected across the western
Panhandles on Sunday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect
for Sunday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated or critical Fire Weather conditions on Sunday.