Wind Advisory 7, NWS Albany, NY

233 
WWUS71 KALY 022343
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
743 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019

MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058-061-063-082>084-
VTZ013>015-031000-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0007.190403T1800Z-190404T0200Z/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Northern Warren-Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Northern Fulton-
Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-
Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, Florida, 
North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, South Egremont, 
Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, 
Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, Hoffmeister, Wells, Ilion, 
Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort, Dolgeville, 
Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Saratoga Lake, 
Saratoga Springs, Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek, 
North River, Warrensburg, Hague, Huletts Landing, Whitehall, 
Granville, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, Livingstonville, 
Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, Mariaville, Delanson, 
Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, 
Mechanicville, Clifton Park, Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, 
Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, 
Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, 
Prattsville, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, 
West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown, Caroga Lake, 
Glens Falls, West Glens Falls, Hudson Falls, Fort Edward, 
Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, North Easton, Stamford, 
Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, Londonderry, 
Brattleboro, Guilford Center, West Brattleboro, and Bellows Falls
743 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 10 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* Location...The western and southern Adirondacks, Mohawk and 
  Schoharie Valleys, eastern Catskills, Lake George Saratoga 
  Region, Capital Region and Helderbergs, southern Vermont, 
  northern and central Taconics and the Berkshires.

* Winds...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Timing...Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

* Impacts...Winds may be strong enough to blow down large tree 
  limbs, some trees and power lines. Isolated power outages are 
  possible. Travel could be difficult for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph are
expected, with gusts between 46 to 57 mph. Winds this strong are
capable of downing small tree limbs and branches, possibly
causing isolated power outages. Driving can also be difficult,
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

888 
WWUS71 KALY 030749
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
349 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019


CTZ001-013-NYZ059-060-064>066-032200-
/O.EXA.KALY.WI.Y.0007.190403T1800Z-190404T0200Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Catskill, Coxsackie, Athens, 
Cairo, Jefferson Heights, Hudson, Kingston, New Paltz, 
Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling, Wingdale, Dover Plains,
Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains, and Amenia
349 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM
EDT this evening.

* Location...Litchfield County in northwest Connecticut, and the
  mid Hudson Valley and southern Taconics of eastern New York.

* Winds...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Timing...This afternoon through early tonight.

* Impacts...Winds may be strong enough to blow down large tree
  limbs, some trees and power lines. Isolated to scattered power 
  outages are possible. Travel could be difficult for high profile
  vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph are
expected, with gusts between 46 to 57 mph. Winds this strong are
capable of downing small tree limbs and branches, possibly
causing isolated power outages. Driving can also be difficult,
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058-061-063-082>084-
VTZ013>015-032200-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0007.190403T1800Z-190404T0200Z/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Northern Warren-Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Northern Fulton-
Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-
Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, Florida, 
North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, South Egremont, 
Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, 
Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, Hoffmeister, Wells, Ilion, 
Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort, Dolgeville, 
Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Saratoga Lake, 
Saratoga Springs, Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek, 
North River, Warrensburg, Hague, Huletts Landing, Whitehall, 
Granville, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, Livingstonville, 
Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, Mariaville, Delanson, 
Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, 
Mechanicville, Clifton Park, Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, 
Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, 
Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, 
Prattsville, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, 
West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown, Caroga Lake, 
Glens Falls, West Glens Falls, Hudson Falls, Fort Edward, 
Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, North Easton, Stamford, 
Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, Londonderry, 
Brattleboro, Guilford Center, West Brattleboro, and Bellows Falls
349 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* Location...The western and southern Adirondacks, Mohawk and 
  Schoharie Valleys, eastern Catskills, Lake George Saratoga 
  Region, Capital Region and Helderbergs, southern Vermont, 
  northern and central Taconics and the Berkshires.

* Winds...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Timing...This afternoon through early tonight.

* Impacts...Winds may be strong enough to blow down large tree
  limbs, some trees and power lines. Isolated to scattered power 
  outages are possible. Travel could be difficult for high profile
  vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph are
expected, with gusts between 46 to 57 mph. Winds this strong are
capable of downing small tree limbs and branches, possibly
causing isolated power outages. Driving can also be difficult,
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

660 
WWUS71 KALY 032024
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
424 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-040200-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-190404T0200Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, Old Forge, 
Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, Hoffmeister, 
Wells, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort, 
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Saratoga Lake, 
Saratoga Springs, Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek, 
North River, Warrensburg, Hague, Huletts Landing, Whitehall, 
Granville, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, Livingstonville, 
Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, Mariaville, Delanson, 
Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, 
Mechanicville, Clifton Park, Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, 
Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, 
Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, 
Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, Athens, Cairo, 
Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock, 
West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown, 
Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling, 
Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains, 
Amenia, Caroga Lake, Glens Falls, West Glens Falls, Hudson Falls,
Fort Edward, Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, North Easton, 
Stamford, Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, 
Londonderry, Brattleboro, Guilford Center, West Brattleboro, 
and Bellows Falls
424 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* Location...The western and southern Adirondacks, Mohawk and 
  Schoharie Valleys, eastern Catskills, Lake George Saratoga 
  Region, Capital Region and Helderbergs, southern Vermont, 
  northern and central Taconics and the Berkshires.

* Winds...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Timing...Through early tonight.

* Impacts...Winds may be strong enough to blow down large tree 
  limbs, some trees and power lines. Isolated to scattered power 
  outages are possible. Travel could be difficult for high 
  profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph are
expected, with gusts between 46 to 57 mph. Winds this strong are
capable of downing small tree limbs and branches, possibly
causing isolated power outages. Driving can also be difficult,
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

923 
WWUS71 KALY 040147
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
947 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019



CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-040500-
/O.EXT.KALY.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-190404T0500Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, Old Forge, 
Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, Hoffmeister, 
Wells, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort, 
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Saratoga Lake, 
Saratoga Springs, Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek, 
North River, Warrensburg, Hague, Huletts Landing, Whitehall, 
Granville, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, Livingstonville, 
Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, Mariaville, Delanson, 
Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, 
Mechanicville, Clifton Park, Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, 
Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, 
Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, 
Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, Athens, Cairo, 
Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock, 
West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown, 
Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling, 
Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains, 
Amenia, Caroga Lake, Glens Falls, West Glens Falls, Hudson Falls,
Fort Edward, Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, North Easton, 
Stamford, Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, 
Londonderry, Brattleboro, Guilford Center, West Brattleboro, 
and Bellows Falls
947 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* Location...The western and southern Adirondacks, Mohawk and 
  Schoharie Valleys, eastern Catskills, Lake George Saratoga 
  Region, Capital Region and Helderbergs, southern Vermont, 
  northern and central Taconics and the Berkshires.

* Winds...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Timing...Through early tonight.

* Impacts...Winds may be strong enough to blow down large tree 
  limbs, some trees and power lines. Isolated to scattered power 
  outages are possible. Travel could be difficult for high 
  profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph are
expected, with gusts between 46 to 57 mph. Winds this strong are
capable of downing small tree limbs and branches, possibly
causing isolated power outages. Driving can also be difficult,
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

531 
WWUS71 KALY 040426
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
1226 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2019

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-040530-
/O.CAN.KALY.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-190404T0500Z/
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, 
New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, 
Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, 
South Egremont, Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, Old Forge, 
Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, Hoffmeister, 
Wells, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort, 
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Saratoga Lake, 
Saratoga Springs, Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek, 
North River, Warrensburg, Hague, Huletts Landing, Whitehall, 
Granville, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, Livingstonville, 
Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, Mariaville, Delanson, 
Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, 
Mechanicville, Clifton Park, Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, 
Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, 
Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, 
Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, Athens, Cairo, 
Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock, 
West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown, 
Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling, 
Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains, 
Amenia, Caroga Lake, Glens Falls, West Glens Falls, Hudson Falls,
Fort Edward, Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, North Easton, 
Stamford, Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal, Stratton, 
Londonderry, Brattleboro, Guilford Center, West Brattleboro, 
and Bellows Falls
1226 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Albany has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. Wind gusts of 20-30 will remain possible at times
overnight.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
227 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
It will continue to be mostly sunny and breezy this afternoon with
temperatures near seasonable levels.  A storm system tracking off
the eastern seaboard will bring some clouds for tonight, along with
some light rain or snow across portions of western New England.
Windy conditions will develop behind the departing storm for
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The next chance of widespread
precipitation looks to be on Friday, as a frontal boundary brings
some rain and snow to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 145 PM EDT...High pressure is located southeast of Nova
Scotia and continues to depart away from the area. Meanwhile,
low pressure is developing along the Carolina coastline.
Although the bulk of the clouds ahead of this strengthening
storm are still over the mid-Atlantic states, some thin high
cirrus clouds are already moving from south to north across the
area. Still, these are fairly thin and skies are partly to
mostly sunny across the area, and this should continue to be the
case through this evening.

With the developing gradient and fairly decent mixing in place
(as usual this time of year thanks to the strong solar
insolation and lack of moist vegetation), southerly winds are
starting to be gusty, especially in north-south oriented
valleys, such as the Hudson Valley. Winds have been gusts 20-30
mph at times and this should continue for the rest of the day.

Temps are already on place to be a much milder afternoon
as compared to Monday, with late afternoon high temperatures
reaching the lower 50s within the Hudson River Valley, and
mainly 40s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight, a developing storm system off the southeast coast will
track northeastward offshore. Despite the track remaining fairly
far off the coast, an increasingly large circulation around the
storm system will develop as the low rapidly intensifies. Some
light precipitation is expected to expand north and west late
this evening, although the north/west extent remains somewhat
uncertain, with most guidance suggesting at least some light
precipitation extending into Litchfield County CT, the
Berkshires and southern Vermont for a brief time overnight,
especially between roughly 10 PM and 3 AM. Some models suggest
light precipitation expands as far west as the mid Hudson
Valley. Due to lingering uncertainty regarding the westernmost
extent of the precipitation shield, have kept PoPs within the
chance ranges for most of the aforementioned areas, buffered by
slight chance as far west as the mid Hudson Valley and Taconics.

Thermal forecast profiles suggest precipitation begins as rain,
but may mix with or change to snow for a brief time, especially
for higher elevations. A coating to less than one half inch of
snow is possible in these areas. Should heavier precipitation
develop and/or pivot north and west, stronger dynamical/wet bulb
cooling could allow for more widespread snow in these areas,
with accumulations perhaps up to an inch or so.

For Wednesday, the aforementioned storm system looks to track
rapidly away from the coast, with a narrow ridge of high
pressure translating across during the morning. However, a cold
front will then track east/southeast during the afternoon hours.
Although moisture looks very limited, the wind field, especially
between H850-H700 looks very impressive for late Wednesday
afternoon, with 40-60 KT expected around/just above H850, and
60-70 KT around H700. BUFKIT forecast soundings suggest that
mixing potential becomes quite deep during the late afternoon,
which may tap into this low/mid level jet feature. In addition,
some isolated sprinkles may occur along and behind the front,
which may help translate some stronger wind gusts down to the
surface as well, enhanced by evaporational cooling with an
inverted-V signature below the cloud base due to low level dry
air. The bottom line is that some strong wind gusts may occur
Wednesday afternoon/early evening with and behind the cold
front, with greatest potential for the Mohawk Valley/Capital
Region and Berkshires north into the Adirondacks and southern
VT. Will address this potential in the HWO. Wind advisories, and
perhaps even a short-fused High Wind Warning can not be ruled
out should confidence increase further for these strong wind
gusts of 40-50+ mph. Highs Wednesday mainly in the lower/mid 50s
in valley areas, except near or over 60 in the mid Hudson
Valley, with mid 40s to around 50 elsewhere. Temps will likely
fall during the late afternoon hours.

Wednesday night-Thursday night, strong gusty winds may persist
Wednesday evening before rapidly diminishing toward and after
midnight. Expect fair but cooler conditions through Thursday
night, with lows mainly in the 20s both Wednesday and Thursday
night, and highs Thursday ranging from the 30s across higher
elevations, to the 40s for most valley areas, except perhaps
50+ across the mid Hudson Valley. Clouds will increase from
southwest to northeast late Thursday night in advance of the
next storm system, although any precipitation looks to hold off
until after daybreak Friday at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Midlevel confluent flow and surface high pressure shift east Friday,
replaced by an approaching low amplitude trough and increasing
moisture transport via strengthening low level jet. It is likely
that the antecedent airmass will be quite dry, meaning it will take
some time to moisten the atmosphere and result in precipitation at
the surface. Accordingly, the trend since yesterday has been a
slightly slower onset of precipitation, favoring the afternoon and
evening compared with the morning. A slower onset of precipitation
would lessen the potential problems associated with snow at the
onset as the boundary layer will have a chance to warm (albeit
modestly given the position of the departing high). Even so, some
snow is possible at the onset of precipitation, especially over the
higher terrain. At this point, nothing to suggest advisory-level
accumulations, although the colder GFS solution would result in a
few inches over the terrain with perhaps some light accumulation
even in the valleys. Consensus suggests precip is mainly liquid by
Friday night with precipitation tapering off from west to east late.
Temps expected to be cooler than normal Friday given the chilly
start and likely precipitation.

Midlevel height rises in the wake of the midlevel wave Saturday
morning should allow subsidence to build in, resulting in a mild and
dry day. Predictability drops off Sunday onward. 00Z.02 GFS brings
in an increasing low level jet and showers associated with an
occluding low over the western Great Lakes, while the remainder of
the deterministic guidance is mainly dry. An increasing amount of
00Z.02 GEFS members result in precipitation Sunday compared with the
12Z.01 and 00Z.01 runs. We will wait until a model trend becomes
more established before putting in chances of precip for Sunday. It
looks like a mild day if the dry solutions pan out. Early
indications for Monday are a continuation of mild temperatures with
midlevel riding extending into the area, but still a lot of
uncertainty regarding precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will move off the east coast early tonight. A
storm system will track northeast off the coast late tonight but
will remain too far east to bring any impactful weather to our
TAF sites. A cold front will cross the area early Wednesday,
followed by strong, gusty westerly winds Wednesday afternoon.

Conditions at the TAF sites will remain VFR. We have gone with a
prob 30 for a light rain or snow shower at POU and PSF as the
coast storm passes off to the east after midnight tonight. After
a period of mid level bkn-ovc conditions late tonight, skies
will clear once again during the day Wednesday. Winds will be
from the south to southwest at 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts
this afternoon, becoming light east-southeasterly tonight, then
shifting to the west and increasing to 20 to 30 mph with higher
gusts during Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy
With Gusts To 30 to 35 mph. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low
Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No
Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: High Operational Impact.
Likely SHRA. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday:
Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     Gusty Winds and Low RH over the Next Few Days...

High pressure will move east of the region today. A storm
system will track off the eastern seaboard tonight and early
Wednesday. A cold front will then pass through the region
Wednesday afternoon bringing windy conditions into Wednesday
evening.

RH values will drop into the 20-30 percent range this
afternoon, and again Wednesday afternoon. The RH will recover
to 70-90 percent tonight, highest across the SW Adirondacks and
across western New England.

Southerly winds will be 10 to 20 mph with some gusts up to 30
mph possible for this afternoon. Winds will become
light/variable tonight through mid morning Wednesday. Winds will
then become west to northwest, and rapidly increase Wednesday
afternoon to 15-30 mph, with gusts of 35-55 mph.

Some light rain or wet snow is possible tonight across portions
of western New England, but amounts will be fairly negligible.
Also, a few sprinkles are possible with a cold front for
Wednesday afternoon, mainly impacting northern areas, but
amounts will generally be only a few hundredths at most.

The next chance for widespread precipitation will be Friday (as
rain or a rain/snow mix) as a frontal boundary approaches from
the west.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Other than some possible light rain/snow across western New
England tonight, generally dry weather is expected through
Thursday. Although daytime temperatures will be a little milder
than recent days, overnight lows still looks to below freezing
for much of the area for the next few nights. This should allow
for a diurnal melting pattern of the snowpack that continues to
be in place over the high terrain.

The next chance for widespread precipitation looks to be Friday,
with some rain and snow is expected thanks to a frontal
boundary. Some rises are possible thanks to the expected
precipitation, but at this point, runoff looks limited enough to
keep rivers and streams within their banks.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/KL
NEAR TERM...Frugis/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...MSE/Thompson
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis/KL
HYDROLOGY...MSE/Frugis/KL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
433 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-031100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
433 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, east central and eastern New York, and
for southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong west to northwest winds will develop along and behind a cold
front Wednesday afternoon and evening. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph
are likely. However, there is the potential for even stronger wind
gusts to reach or possibly exceed 50 mph. If the potential for
stronger wind gusts increases, then a Wind Advisory or High Wind
Warning will be issued. This strong wind potential looks greatest
for the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, and Berkshires north into the
southern Adirondacks and across southern Vermont.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
244 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019

NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-031300-
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-
Including the cities of Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk,
Frankfort, Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam,
Saratoga Lake, Saratoga Springs, Huletts Landing, Whitehall,
Granville, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, Livingstonville,
Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, Mariaville, Delanson,
Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa,
Mechanicville, Clifton Park, Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont,
Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge,
Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham,
Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, Athens, Cairo,
Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock,
West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown,
Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling,
Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains,
Amenia, Caroga Lake, Glens Falls, West Glens Falls, Hudson Falls,
Fort Edward, Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls, and North Easton
244 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...Dry, windy conditions will result in an elevated risk of brush
fires across the area Wednesday afternoon into the early
evening...

Westerly winds will increase during the day Wednesday, with gusts
as high as 40 to 50 mph during the mid afternoon into the early
evening. These winds will combine with relative humidity values
below 30 percent to bring an elevated risk of brush fires to the
area. The greatest risk may be in the mid-Hudson Valley south of
Albany where temperatures Wednesday afternoon will reach near 60
degrees and relative humidity values will fall as low as 20 to 25
percent.

MSE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
319 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019

MAZ001-025-030900-
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-
Including the cities of Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, Florida,
North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, and South Egremont
319 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019

...ELEVATED FIRE RISK FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS WEDNESDAY APRIL
3RD...

An elevated fire risk will be in place for Wednesday, April 3rd
across the Berkshires of western Massachusetts.

Altogether, there is little to no snowpack in place, as well as
little forecast precipitation associated with a coastal storm
impacting the eastern half of New England. Forecast midday to
afternoon relative humidity will be as low as 25 to 30 percent as
strong, dry westerly winds are expected to be sustained around 20
mph with gusts around 35 to 45 mph.

The main concern is for areas of grass, shrub and dried leaf litter
fuel types which could yield dangerous fire behavior with the
predicted dry and windy conditions.

This message was produced in collaboration with the state of
Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation Bureau of
Forest Fire Control.

Frugis