Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
428 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The combination of an upper level disturbance and nearby frontal
boundary will continue to allow for showers and thunderstorms
through this evening, some of which may contain gusty winds and
heavy rainfall.  Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible
again on Thursday as well.  Cooler and less humid air will move into
the region for Friday into the weekend, with mainly dry conditions
expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 428 PM EDT...Upper level disturbance is currently located
over western New York/northwest PA. At the surface, a slow
moving frontal boundary is draped just west of the region. Our
area continues to be in a muggy and warm air mass, with
dewpoints around 70 in many areas. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms have developed this afternoon and have been
tracking northeast across the area.

With the approaching shortwave, 0-6 km bulk shear values have
been increased through the day and are now around 30 kts. The
warm and moist air mass has been allowing for plenty of
instability, with SBCAPE analyzed around 1000-2000 J/kg. One
mitigating factor for severe storms is that mid level lapse
rates continue to be fairly weak, generally under 6 C/km.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will continue
through about 9 PM, which is when the Severe Thunderstorm Watch
expires. Cannot really pick out are part of the area that will
be more favored for showers and t-storms, as CAMs show all areas
possibly seeing some activity.

Afterward by later this evening, 3km NAM suggest the bulk of
showers and thunderstorms will pass off to the east into New
England, with just a few lingering showers across the
Adirondacks for the remainder of the overnight. Some breaks in
the clouds look to occur late. With the warm and muggy air mass
still in place, as well as the recent rainfall, some patchy fog
may develop late tonight as well, with overnight lows falling
into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Another upper level shortwave will be passing through the area
for Thursday, although this one looks weaker, with less
dynamics, compared to one crossing for Wednesday. As a result,
there may be some showers and thunderstorms once again during
peak heating, but coverages looks less as compared to Wednesday.
Cannot totally rule out a stray strong storm, but winds aloft
look fairly weak, so widespread severe storms don't appear to be
likely. It will continue to be fairly warm and muggy with highs
in the 80s and dewpoints into the 60s.

Main upper level trough will be moving across eastern Canada for
Thursday night through Friday. With a northwest flow at all
levels, cooler and drier air will be working into the region.
This should allow for noticeably less humid air to finally
arrive by Friday. Cannot rule out a stray shower over the
Adirondacks on Friday due to the cooler temps aloft, but no
thunder is expected. Highs will mainly be in the 70s for Friday
and overnight lows on Fri night will be comfortable in the 50s
with a mostly clear sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Slow moving upper level trough will be passing across eastern
Canada and into northern New England over the weekend and
lifting out by Monday. However, another upper level low will be
dropping across southeast across Ontario and Quebec for early
next week as well.

As a result, our region will be mainly dominated by northwest
flow aloft for the weekend and even into parts of next week.
This should allow for mainly dry weather, with temperatures a
little on the cooler side (daytime highs in the 70s and
overnight lows in the 50s) and comfortable levels of humidity.
Chance for rain looks fairly low through early next week, but
may increase towards mid-week, as a storm system passing to the
south from the Midwest towards the mid-Atlantic allows for
showers or t-storms to get close to our area.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A low pressure system and a cold front will bring scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening.

Showers have developed near KALB while other scattered showers in
southern NY and western New England are developing and tracking
toward KPOU and KPSF, likely to get to those sites between 19Z-21Z.
They will likely strengthen into thunderstorms once they approach
KPSF and KPOU and included MVFR ceilings and visibilities in
thunderstorms there. The thunderstorms will approach KGFL a little
later but still, sometime between 20Z-22Z.

After about 22Z, there may be additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms but that depends on what develops upstream. So,
including VCSH at all sites into this evening through about 06Z with
the option to amend TAFs if thunderstorms linger beyond 21Z-22Z.
Some thunderstorms could have gusty winds at or above 35 Kt.

After 06Z, most of the showers and thunderstorms should be weakened
and dissipated but MVFR ceilings and visibilities will prevail with
the lingering low level moisture, through about 14Z. VFR ceilings
and visibilities return after about 14Z and continue through midday
Thursday.

Winds will be south at around 10 Kt this afternoon, but gusty to 35
Kt or more possible in thunderstorms, then becoming light tonight.
Winds become west to southwest at less than 10 Kt Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Humid conditions will continue through Thursday across the
region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
through this evening, with additional scattered activity again
on Thursday. Many areas will see a wetting rainfall between
tonight and tomorrow. However, drier weather should arrive for
Friday and last through the weekend. RH values will be as low as
40 percent on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Light southerly winds
this evening will become southwest at 5 to 10 mph for Thursday.
Winds will become westerly at 10 to 15 mph for Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
late evening hours. Any thunderstorm will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall, which may result in flooding of
urban, low lying and poor drainage areas. Isolated flash
flooding cannot be ruled out as well for areas where storms
repeatedly pass over the same area.

Although coverage of showers and thunderstorms look to diminish
for later tonight, additional showers and thunderstorms will
develop again during the day on Thursday. Storms on Thursday may
have a lower potential for producing heavy rainfall as compared
to Wednesday, but will still need to be watched closely.

Mainly dry weather is then expected for Friday through the
weekend. This should allow for any elevated water on rivers and
streams to recede.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
451 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-
VTZ013>015-081100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Northern Warren-Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
451 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for all of northwestern
Connecticut, western Massachusetts, east central New York and eastern
New York except for Herkimer and Hamilton Counties and southern
Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Thunderstorms will also produce heavy rainfall, which may cause
flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas. An isolated
flash flood cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. Any thunderstorm will be capable of
producing locally gusty winds and heavy downpours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to pass along any reports of thunderstorm
wind damage, hail or flooding to the National Weather Service via
phone, email or social media.

NYZ032-033-038-081100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
451 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Herkimer and Hamilton Counties
in eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the late evening
hours. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing gusty winds and
heavy rainfall, which may lead to minor flooding of urban, low lying
and poor drainage areas. An isolated flash flood cannot be ruled
out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. Any thunderstorm will be capable of
producing locally gusty winds and heavy downpours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to pass along any reports of thunderstorm
wind damage, hail or flooding to the National Weather Service via
phone, email or social media.

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