Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
158 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid conditions will continue into midweek. A few
afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday.
Rainfall should be more widespread on Wednesday as a cold front
moves through. It will turn milder and drier by the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 157 PM EDT...Diurnal cumulus continues to expand in
coverage and grow in height early this afternoon. It's a hot and
humid day, with valley temps approaching 90 degrees and
dewpoints well into the 60s. As a result, SPC mesoscale analysis
showing MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg (SBCAPEs of 2-3 J/kg as
well). In addition, steep low level lapse rates are allowing
for DCAPE values to exceed 1000 J/kg as well. 12z ALY sounding
is not showing much capping, but plenty of dry air above 700 mb.
Winds aloft are fairly weak and SPC mesoanalysis shows little
shear/helicity in place.

Although there is little forcing in place today, a few isolated
showers are starting to develop thanks to differential heating
within the higher terrain. 3km HRRR and NAMNest show isolated to
scattered convection is expected for the rest of the afternoon
and into the evening. Cannot rule out a few of these may reach
severe levels due to the abundant instability in place, although
they should be relatively short-lived and won't organize much
due to the absence of higher shear and stronger forcing.

High temps look to reach the upper 80s to low 90s for valley
areas today. Heat index values will probably exceed 90 degrees
for valley areas and a brief period of heat index values
reaching mid 90s could occur within the mid Hudson Valley this
afternoon as well. Anyone spending time outdoors should taken
proper precautions to avoid heat-related illness.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Any thunderstorm activity will end this evening and upper energy
with a stronger cold front will make its slow approach Tuesday
into Wednesday. Tuesday looks like there will be enough sunshine
and mixing to get back into the upper 80s to lower 90s but a pre
frontal surface trough and lake breeze convergence should
initiate storms in western areas Tuesday afternoon that will
track through much of eastern NY before losing low level
convergence support into western New England.

Sources of guidance suggest midlevel lapse rates could get a
little steeper and the convergence associated with the pre
frontal trough could result in some strong to maybe some
isolated severe storms with strong winds. Locally heavy rain is
always a threat, too. The Storm Prediction Center has put
our region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Storms
decrease in coverage through Tuesday night.

Temperatures and dew points will be a little higher
Tuesday, which could result in heat indices in the mid 90s for
the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. If confidence increases, a heat
advisory may be needed Tuesday.

The axis of deepest moisture and best instability shifts to
eastern NY and western New England Wednesday. There could be
quite a bit of convective debris cloudiness over our region
through the day before new showers and thunderstorms form over
eastern NY Wednesday afternoon. There is an increasing
consensus in sources of guidance/ensembles that the low level
wind shift and beginning of some cooling at the boundary layer
could reach eastern NY by midday or early afternoon. This would
suggest the best coverage of showers and storms from the
eastern Catskills to mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and Berkshires.

The more widespread cloud cover and the onset of the boundary
layer cooling and wind shift through the day Wednesday suggests
that max temperatures will be in the 70s to lower 80s. Any
showers and storms will end Wednesday night with more slow and
steady low level drying and cooling through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Guidance suggests that the extended forecast period should remain
mostly dry for much of the region, with locations south of I-90
seeing the best chance for some rain showers over the weekend.

Confidence is pretty high that a surface cold front should be to the
east of the region by Thursday afternoon due to trends over the past
couple days suggesting a slightly more progressive front. This will
leave the region in a seasonable air mass with mostly sunny skies on
Thursday. High pressure over the Great Lakes region will continue to
creep eastward across our region on Friday, providing continued dry
weather with seasonable temperatures.

Forecast confidence begins to deteriorate as we head into the
weekend due to a wide variety of deterministic and ensemble
solutions. Some guidance suggests deamplified zonal flow with weak
surface high pressure keeping hold over the region, while other
guidance wants to slightly amplify the upper flow pattern across the
region. The more zonal solution subdues the Mid Atlantic moisture to
our south, and keeps much of the region dry. This signal has been
advertised more than other solutions, therefore only slight chance
PoPs are warranted over the Mid Hudson Valley for the weekend, while
keeping out chances for rain elsewhere. Temperatures will slowly
increase as we head through the weekend. Highs will climb into the
upper 70s (terrain) to upper 80s, with overnight lows in the mid 50s
to mid 60s. Broad high pressure looks to win out at least for a
brief period early next week, so conditions could be mostly dry to
begin the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop through the
afternoon today. Coverage will not be widespread enough to
include at any of the TAF sites, however a brief period of MVFR
conditions in a stray storm cannot be ruled out through 00z.
Skies will then be mainly clear overnight with patchy light fog
and MVFR vsbys possible at GFL and PSF after 06z. Scattered cu
will develop Tuesday morning, then scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop once again during the afternoon as a
cold front approaches slowly from the west. Winds will be from
the southwest at 5 to 10 kts this afternoon, light and variable
tonight, and from the southwest at 5 to 15 kts Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very warm and humid conditions will continue into midweek. A few
afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday.
Rainfall should be more widespread on Wednesday as a cold front
moves through. It will turn milder and drier by the end of the
week.

RH values will exceed 45 percent through the period with near
100 percent at night. Winds will be southwest at 15 mph or less
through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will produce very localized
heavy rain this afternoon and evening. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday mainly west of the Hudson
Valley and Wednesday areawide. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible as PWAT values increase to 1.50 to 2.00 inches along
with potential of training thunderstorms.

Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/
web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...MSE/Frugis/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Cebulko
AVIATION...Cebulko/MSE
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
249 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019

NYZ059>061-291930-
Eastern Columbia-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
249 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL COLUMBIA AND
NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES...

At 248 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over New Baltimore,
or 10 miles northwest of Chatham, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Valatie and Kinderhook around 305 PM EDT.
  Chatham around 325 PM EDT.
  Philmont around 330 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Niverville, Stuyvesant
Falls, Chatham Center, Stuyvesant, Columbiaville, Omi, West
Coxsackie, Rossman, Otter Hook and Valatie Colony.
This includes Interstate 87 near exit 21B.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized ponding of water on roads.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4225 7365 4238 7385 4246 7381 4247 7373
      4245 7354
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 297DEG 15KT 4242 7379

JPV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
250 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019

NYZ065-066-291930-
Eastern Dutchess-Western Dutchess-
250 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL DUTCHESS COUNTY...

At 250 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Millbrook, or
13 miles northeast of Poughkeepsie, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Amenia around 320 PM EDT.
  Dover Plains around 325 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Littlerest, Oniontown,
Lithgow, Millbrook Heights, South Amenia, South Millbrook, Shunpike,
Willow Brook, Bains Corner and Washington Hollow.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized ponding of water on roads.

LAT...LON 4175 7378 4188 7375 4186 7352 4167 7353
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 286DEG 12KT 4180 7371

JPV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
333 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019

NYZ065-066-292015-
Eastern Dutchess-Western Dutchess-
333 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL DUTCHESS COUNTY...

At 333 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Stanfordville,
or 12 miles southeast of Rhinebeck, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Amenia, Millbrook, Dover Plains, Stanfordville, Littlerest, Salt
Point, Oniontown, Lithgow, Millbrook Heights, South Amenia, South
Millbrook, Shunpike, Willow Brook, Bangall, Bains Corner, Leedsville,
Washington Hollow, Mabbettsville, Hibernia and Wassaic.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4177 7380 4188 7379 4188 7350 4169 7352
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 277DEG 17KT 4183 7370

CS