Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
151 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue this afternoon. A
cold front will approach bringing the increase threat for showers
and thunderstorms, some of which will contain heavy rainfall this
afternoon into early this evening. It will turn much less humid with
seasonable temperatures on Sunday into early next week behind this
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 PM EDT...A humid and oppressive air mass will be over
the region this with sfc dewpts in the upper 60s to lower 70s
over the region. Prefrontal lines of showers and thunderstorms
continue to form from the Capital Region and Berkshires north
and west. The PWAT was 1.90" on the KALY soundings, as well as
WFO OKX. WFO BUF upstream was 2.02", so we are looking at PWATS
+2 to +3 STD DEVS above normal based on the GEFS. So some
enhanced hourly rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are possible. The
steering flow is a bit stronger for a widespread flash flood
threat. Observational data shows over the models, west to
southwest winds in the 700-500 hPa layer of 20-25 kts, so any
convection should be moving along, and there is a small risk of
training. Our thinking remains the same and isolated flash
flooding is possible. Antecedent conditions are dry and
1-,3-,6-hr gridded FFG values are high. The severe threat is
contingent on maximizing CAPE, pcpn loading, and a few wet
microbursts forming. Mid-level lapse rates are poor. DCAPE
values per the latest SPC RAP Mesoanalysis are 500 J/kg or less,
but MLCAPE values around approaching the 1000-2000 J/kg range
due to the high dewpts. 0-6 km bulk shear is 20-25 kts, so
loosely organized convection is possible organizing into a line
or two with some gusty or borderline damaging winds. FQT
lighting was added to the forecast grids with any thunderstorms.
We will monitor for an isolated severe threat. Hail does not
look like a threat due to freezing levels around 15 kft AGL,
weak lapse rates and taller and skinny sounding profiles. PoPs
and weather retooled considerably to fit the present KENX radar
and surrounding radars between noon and 2 pm. Main impact
timeframe will be 130 pm to 8 pm from northwest to southeast
across the region.

Max temps will be in the mid/upper 80s in the valleys with a few
isolated 90s. Expect upper 70s to lower/mid 80s over the higher
terrain. Some spotty 95F heat indices are possible in the
Capital District south to the mid Hudson Valley, but we are not
issuing a heat advisory due to the small coverage area, as we
are just scraping the bottom edge of the criteria. An SPS was
issued to cover this threat.

The main cold frontal passage is expected tonight between 03Z-
06Z/Sun, with the line of convection also exiting the region
much earlier than that. So we will continue with the decreasing
PoPs from north-northwest to the southeast though the evening
hours. A notable drop in the dewpoints is expected with
partially clearing skies as overnight lows will range from the
mid and upper 50s across the Dacks to near 70F for the mid-
Hudson Valley and NW CT where fropa will be last to clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday, Clouds may be slow to clear for those areas south of
I90, otherwise, expect temperatures to be back near normal with
dewpoints back down into the 50s as high pressure to the north
and west continues to influence the weather. Mainly clear and
tranquil Sunday night into the day Monday as 1020mb surface high
slides in from the west-northwest. Fair and cool conditions are
expected Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure at the surface with ridging building aloft will
bring mostly clear skies for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures
will start out near normal for Tuesday, but warm slightly under
the influence of the upper level ridge for Wednesday. Humidity
levels will be fairly comfortable both days, although Tuesday
gets the nod as the drier day.

A short wave trough riding the northern border will approach the
region on Thursday and cross over the area on Friday. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms increase to likely levels on Thursday,
pulling back to the chance category for Friday. With clouds,
showers, and cooler temperatures about, temperatures both days will
edge back to near normal. Some indications that precipitable water
values could increase to about one standard deviation above normal
with the passage of the trough. So some heavier
showers/thunderstorms possible, mainly creating minor ponding issues.

From the vantage point of one week out, next Saturday looks dry with
weak high pressure building in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers and some thunderstorms have developed this afternoon at
or near all terminals. While the main driver focus for
thunderstorm activity is across northern NY as a cold front sags
south, high humidity and warm temperatures combined with small-
scale features have created favorable conditions for
thunderstorms at all terminals now.

While no TSRA's are forecast as prevailing, they are forecast in
TEMPO groups. Timing of these iniial storm is somewhat difficult
given the small scale nature of the triggers. The cold front
offers a more coherent focus for thundestorm development. For
the most part, through the TEMPO mechanism IFR TSRA are
forecast at all terminals through about 00Z.

For the remainder of the evening drier air will filter in
alleviating the threat of any BR/FG development after the rain.
VFR conditions prevail through Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on
today, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. It will
continue to be very warm and humid into this evening.

Much drier air will arrive for Sunday into the middle of next
week. Temperatures will return to closer to seasonal normal
values. Minimum RH values in the 60 to 80 percent range will be
common today, then 80 to 100 percent tonight, a further
reduction is expected Sunday with RH values between 30 and 50
percent. Light northerly winds are expected on Sunday, becoming
light and variable on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
An approaching cold front this afternoon will interact with a
very moist airmass characterized by PWAT values around 2 inches.
Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop
along the cold front and also potentially along a prefrontal
trough. Coverage will be most widespread in the afternoon to
evening. There is a threat for urban and poor-drainage flooding
as well as isolated flash flooding if multiple rounds of
convection occur in a given spot. Basin average QPF of 0.50 to
1.00 inches is possible with locally higher amounts up to 2.50
inches possible. The flash flooding threat will be lessened by
the dry antecedent conditions.

A period of dry weather is likely Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BGM/Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...OKeefe
AVIATION...OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Thompson
HYDROLOGY...BGM/Thompson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
350 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-071100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
350 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, east central New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The combination of hot temperatures and increasing humidity levels
may produce dangerous heat conditions with heat indices into the low
to mid 90s in portions of the Capital District and mid Hudson Valley
today. If confidence increases in heat indices of 95F or greater,
then heat advisories will need to be issued.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms are expected to become
numerous to widespread areawide today, especially in the afternoon
and evening. Heavy downpours are likely in any thunderstorm, which
could result in urban and poor drainage flooding. Isolated flash
flooding is possible if multiple rounds of thunderstorms occur over a
given area. There is also a marginal risk for severe weather with
the main threat being isolated damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
306 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

NYZ052-053-059-060-061930-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
306 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL COLUMBIA...
SOUTHEASTERN ALBANY AND SOUTHWESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES...

At 305 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Feura Bush, or
8 miles southwest of Delmar, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Baltimore, Ravena, Castleton-On-Hudson, Selkirk, Coeymans,
Clarksville, Coeymans Hollow, Brookview, Van Hoesen Station, South
Albany, Selkirk Yards, Spawn Hollow, Dormansville, Callanans Corners,
Beckers Corners, Keefers Corners, Bethlehem Heights, South Schodack,
Hannacroix and Cedar Hill.

This includes Interstate 87 between exits 21A and 22.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4250 7401 4258 7397 4254 7365 4239 7374
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 290DEG 22KT 4252 7392

JEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
316 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

NYZ040-041-047>051-084-VTZ013-062000-
Eastern Schenectady-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Montgomery-Southern
Washington-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Northern
Saratoga-Bennington-
316 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SCHENECTADY...NORTHWESTERN
ALBANY...SOUTHERN SARATOGA...NORTHEASTERN SCHOHARIE...SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND NORTHWESTERN BENNINGTON
COUNTIES...

At 315 PM EDT, a broken line of strong thunderstorms was located
from northern Bennington county Vermont west-southwest to near
Schenectady. Storms were moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Schenectady, Rotterdam, Saratoga Springs, Scotia, Salem, Glenville,
Niskayuna, Milton, Duanesburg, Ballston Spa, Berne, Cambridge,
Greenwich, Altamont, Schoharie, Round Lake, Delanson, Rotterdam
Junction, East Glenville and Burnt Hills.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 88 between exits 24 and 25.
 Interstate 90 between exits 25a and 26.
 Interstate 890 between exits 1a and 6.
 Interstate 87 between exits 11 and 15.

LAT...LON 4295 7337 4296 7343 4294 7345 4294 7364
      4292 7367 4291 7379 4275 7397 4275 7403
      4271 7403 4263 7412 4261 7436 4299 7410
      4331 7318 4331 7307
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 240DEG 49KT 4284 7412

MSE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
330 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

NYZ048-049-051-052-059-062000-
Eastern Albany-Eastern Schenectady-Eastern Greene-Western
Schenectady-Western Albany-
330 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SCHENECTADY AND
ALBANY COUNTIES...

At 329 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Berne, or 14
miles southwest of Rotterdam, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and very heavy rainfall are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albany, Rotterdam, Watervliet, Colonie, Latham, Delmar, Guilderland,
Menands, Westerlo, Berne, Voorheesville, Altamont, Loudonville, Feura
Bush, New Scotland, Knox, Princetown, Rensselaerville, Clarksville
and Coeymans Hollow.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 88 near exit 25.
 Interstate 90 between exits 5A and 25.
 Interstate 890 between exits 8 and 9.
 Interstate 87 between exits 23 and 6.
 Interstate 787 near exit 1.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4257 7424 4259 7422 4260 7422 4262 7419
      4263 7419 4265 7417 4267 7417 4279 7408
      4275 7370 4241 7389 4249 7423 4253 7423
      4255 7424
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 274DEG 18KT 4263 7416

MSE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
334 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

CTZ001-MAZ025-NYZ061-066-062000-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Berkshire-Eastern Dutchess-Eastern
Columbia-
334 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LITCHFIELD...
SOUTHWESTERN BERKSHIRE AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTIES...

At 333 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Copake, or 13
miles southwest of Great Barrington, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sheffield, Canaan, Ashley Falls, Salisbury, Whitehouse Crossing,
Sodom, Ancramdale, South Canaan, East Sheffield, Wangum Village,
Gomorrah, Weed Mines, Spencer Corners, Mount Riga, Alander, Taconic,
Joyceville, Amesville, Lakeville and Barton Corners.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4196 7358 4207 7361 4216 7326 4196 7320
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 262DEG 25KT 4203 7351

JEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
342 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

NYZ064-065-062015-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Ulster-
342 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL ULSTER AND
WEST CENTRAL DUTCHESS COUNTIES...

At 342 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Port Ewen to near Kerhonkson. Movement
was east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
New Paltz, Hyde Park, Tillson, Staatsburg, Port Ewen, Esopus,
Rosendale, Marbletown, Ellerslie, Lefever Falls, Norrie Heights,
Maple Hill, Hickorybush, Alligerville, Dewitt Mills, Stone Ridge,
Pleasant Plains, Creeklocks, Saint Remy and Rosendale Village.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4175 7422 4184 7418 4190 7412 4189 7382
      4174 7398
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 272DEG 17KT 4189 7400 4177 7419

JEC