Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
729 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms to portions of the region this
evening. Cool and breezy conditions will follow for Friday, with
some isolated showers. After a brief period of dry weather Friday
night and early Saturday, another fast moving frontal system will
bring showers for late Saturday into Saturday night. Fair and warm
conditions are currently expected for Sunday into Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 703 PM EDT...A prefrontal sfc trough is moving across the
Adirondacks, and the west-central Mohawk Valley at this time
with with isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
A more impressive line of showers and thunderstorms is just
moving east of Lake Ontario based on the KENX and upstream
radars. This line is associated with a cold front. It is high
shear and low CAPE environment with MLCAPE values based on the
latest RAP in the 100-250 J/kg range and MUCAPE values mainly
250-600 J/kg from ALY north and west. 0-6 km shear values
increase to 40-60 kts with 0-3 km SRH values briefly rising to
250-400 (m/s)2 based on the latest 3-km between 00Z-03Z. We will
have to monitor for some isolated to scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms with this line for damaging winds as the main
threat. The better upper jet dynamics are also arriving soon.
Some retooling of the PoPs was done based on the mesoscale
trends with this update.

Latest near term follows with more details...

Kinematics remain extremely strong this evening, and overall
upper level dynamics will rapidly increase early this evening,
with the approach of a cyclonically curved upper level jet,
placing areas (especially from I-90 and points north) into the
left exit region. So, still can not rule out some showers/low
topped thunderstorms to form on the cold front, and with mid
level winds of 40-60 KT, strong downward momentum could lead to
strong wind gusts, even within lower topped showers (perhaps
without any lightning). So, trends will need to be watched
upstream across western NYS this evening. And if convection
fails to form, there still could be briefly strong wind gusts as
the front passes, perhaps 30-45 mph or so.

After the front passes, expect breezy conditions with clearing
initially, before some clouds reform across higher terrain areas
before daybreak. Remaining breezy/windy, with lows mainly in the
upper 40s to lower/mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday-Friday night, cyclonic flow and cold air aloft, along
with a surface trough passing southward through the region,
should favor quite a bit of cloud coverage once deeper mixing
commences in the late morning through afternoon.
Isolated/scattered showers and sprinkles will also be possible,
especially across higher terrain areas. Gusty NW winds may reach
25-35 mph at times. Highs mainly upper 60s to lower 70s in
valleys, and upper 50s to mid 60s across higher terrain.
Clearing and cool for Friday night, with lows mainly in the 40s.

Saturday-Saturday night, clouds rapidly increase from NW to SE
Saturday morning, with some showers developing in the afternoon,
especially across the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley
extending into the Lake George/Saratoga region. Areas south and
east of Albany may remain dry until closer to sunset. Then for
Saturday night, showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will be
possible as a frontal system approaches from the northwest.
Locally heavy downpours will be possible as PWAT's climb with
1.25-1.5 inches. Highs Saturday mainly in the lower 70s in
valleys, and 60s across higher terrain. Max temps may occur
during the late morning/early afternoon hours before cooling
back into the 60s once showers develop. Lows Saturday night
mainly in the mid 50s to around 60.

Sunday, frontal system should move slowly south and east across
the region, with most likely timing during the morning hours.
However, there is some uncertainty whether the front slows down
its south/east progression. If so, isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms could linger into the afternoon. For now,
will confine most PoPs to the morning hours. Highs mainly

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night-Monday, weak high pressure should bring fair and
warm conditions, assuming aforementioned frontal system shifts
far enough to our south and east. Lows Sunday night mainly in
the 50s. Highs Monday should reach upper 70s to lower 80s in
valleys, and lower/mid 70s across higher terrain.

Monday night-Thursday, warm front looks to approach from the
south and west late Monday night into Tuesday. Some form of MCS
activity could affect the region during this time with a few
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The front should lift north
of the region by Wednesday, before a cold front approaches from
the northwest for Wednesday night into Thursday. The air south
of the warm front could be quite warm to hot. For now, have
indicated max temps in valley areas reaching 85-90 for
Wednesday, with lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights mainly in the
50s and 60s. Cooler for Thursday, but still possibly above
normal depending on the speed of the main cold front, with
highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Watching scattered to broken line of convection across central New
York.  Per extrapolation of these features along with mesoscale high
resolution reflectivity models, the window between 00z-04z would be
the potential for showers/thunderstorms with MVFR conditions.  After
the passage of this front, the MVFR conditions will likely stick
into the Berks with a combination of MVFR/VFR ceilings the remainder
of the overnight period for the Hudson Valley TAF locations.

Southerly winds will average 8-13 KT with some gusts of 25-30 KT
this evening. Winds will shift into the west/northwest behind the
cold front, with speeds of 8-12 KT and gusts of 20-30 KT possible,
especially at KALB and KPSF.

Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and
near any thunderstorms through this evening.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Memorial Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
   ...Wind gusts 25-35 mph possible tonight into Friday...

A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to
portions of the region this evening. Cool and breezy conditions
will follow for Friday, with some isolated showers. After a
brief period of dry weather Friday night and early Saturday,
another fast moving frontal system will bring showers for late
Saturday into Saturday night. Fair and warm conditions are
currently expected for Sunday into Memorial Day.

South to southwest winds will increase to 10-20 mph this
evening, with gusts up to 35 mph possible. In the wake of the
cold front, winds will shift into the west to northwest at 10-20
mph with gusts of 25-35 mph late tonight into Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue through this
evening as a low pressure and frontal system approaches and
moves across the region. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 an inch
are expected with locally higher amounts in some thunderstorms.
Some ponding of water in poor drainage, urban and low lying
areas is possible. The storms will be moving quite fast so no
significant hydrological impacts are expected at this time.

Another round of wet weather is expected Saturday afternoon and
night with another fast moving low pressure system approaches
and moves across the region.

Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/
web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/Wasula
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

www.weather.gov/albany

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
500 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-241100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-
500 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms through early this
evening, with the greatest risk west of the Hudson River. The main
threat is for damaging winds, however hail can not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms late Monday night through
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-VTZ013>015-241100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
500 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms through early this
evening. The main threat is damaging winds, however hail can not be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday night through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1013 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE COLD BROOK         43.28N  74.99W
05/23/2019  M51 MPH          HERKIMER           NY   NYS MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1902265

CS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
1013 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

VTZ013>015-240245-
Eastern Windham-Western Windham-Bennington-
1013 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BENNINGTON AND
SOUTHERN WINDHAM COUNTIES...

At 1013 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Wilmington, or
11 miles southeast of Stratton, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brattleboro, Townshend, Stratton, Putney, Vernon, Wilmington,
Readsboro, Newfane, Guilford Center, West Wardsboro, Guilford,
Whitingham, Dover, Marlboro, Wardsboro, Halifax, Jacksonville,
Searsburg, Somerset and Wardsboro Center.

LAT...LON 4298 7246 4297 7247 4296 7252 4295 7253
      4292 7252 4290 7253 4288 7255 4281 7254
      4278 7251 4277 7252 4276 7251 4277 7249
      4274 7247 4277 7307 4311 7298 4300 7246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 288DEG 32KT 4289 7281

Wasula

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1038 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE WESTMERE          42.67N  73.83W
05/23/2019                   ALBANY             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN WITH ONE LARGE ACROSS MONROE
            AVENUE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1902266

CS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
1038 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

NYZ059>061-240330-
Eastern Columbia-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
1038 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT COLUMBIA AND
NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES...

At 1038 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near New Baltimore to Coxsackie to 9
miles north of North-South Lake Campground. Movement was southeast at
35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hudson, Catskill, Chatham, Claverack, Livingston, New Baltimore,
Coxsackie, Valatie, Athens, Austerlitz, Philmont, Kinderhook, Lorenz
Park, Claverack-Red Mills, Cairo, Ghent, Stockport, Stuyvesant,
Hillsdale and Taghkanic.

This includes Interstate 87 between exits 21 and 21B.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4229 7404 4236 7403 4245 7381 4237 7341
      4213 7349 4204 7373
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 303DEG 30KT 4244 7375 4238 7382 4232 7400

BGM

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