Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
149 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front accompanied by showers and thunderstorms,
some strong to severe, will move across the region this afternoon.
In the wake of the frontal passage, a cooler and drier air mass will
move into eastern New York and western New England. Fair and mainly
dry weather is expected heading into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...Severe Thunderstorm Watch #634 in effect for the Lake George
Saratoga Region, Greater Capital Region, Schoharie Valley,
Eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Helderbergs and Taconics
in eastern NY, and all of western New England until 9 PM EDT...

As of 149 PM EDT...

A severe thunderstorm watch was coordinated with SPC and issued
as of 1254 pm EDT. Clusters or lines of showers and
thunderstorms will impact most of the forecast area into the
mid to late pm. The threat will diminish northwest of Albany
after 3 pm. MLCAPE values are around 1000 J/kg with mid level
lapse rates steepening to 6.5-7C/km. The 0-6 km shear is strong
at 40-50+ kts. The updrafts may not be tall enough for
widespread severe due to limited instability and the fast flow,
but certainly some marginal large hail and damaging winds due to
bowing segments and wet microbursts are possible. Sfc dewpts
have jumped into the 60s ahead of the prefrontal trough and cold
front. An isolated tornado is possible (can not be ruled
out)...from an isolated mini-supercell or of the QLCS variety.
The activity should diminish by 5-6 pm south and east of Albany.

Finally, an 18Z balloon launch is underway in support of
Hurricane Dorian, but it will be a two for one hit due to the
severe weather threat for the forecast area. Be on the lookout
for that sounding!

Previous near term...

Updated at 1050 am. Initial batch of showers and thunderstorms
has been moving across the southern Adirondacks this morning.
Convection evolved into a line as it moved east, however no
damaging wind reports or reports of strong gusts were received
and it seems most likely that the winds remained aloft above a
low-level stable layer. Concern for severe storms will be
increasing over the next several hours as a broken line of
storms is currently moving east toward the Catskills and Capital
District while another line of storms is developing to the west
over central NY. These storms are developing in association with
the pre-frontal trough that will be moving across our area this
afternoon. Instability will be increasing with diurnal heating
ahead of these storms and we are expecting MLCAPE values of 1000
to 1500 J/kg ahead of these storms by early afternoon with
strong wind fields resulting in 30 kt 0-1 km shear and 50 kt 0-6
km shear values in place ahead of an approaching mid- level
trough. Low- level lapse rates will also be steepening as latest
SPC meso- analysis is showing DCAPE values already up to around
800 J/kg into the southwest Catskills late this morning. These
factors all point toward multiple lines of storms moving across
our area through this afternoon with a damaging wind and large
hail threat. Storms may initially be discrete and will be
rotating, however we expect that ultimately there will be lines
of storms along the pre- frontal boundary as it moves east. SPC
has placed our area in the slight risk for severe storms
through this afternoon.

Tonight...Frontal passage is expected to clear our southeast
zones around 22Z/6 pm, as low level flow becomes west-
northwest. This should also allow for clearing skies and gradual
decrease in dewpoints. Just how fast this occurs remains to be
seen as patchy fog, especially where rainfall occurs earlier in
the day, may become problematic as the boundary layer decouples.
Overnight lows fall from the mid 40s to mid 50s across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thursday-Thursday Night...Weak high pressure builds in from
southeast Canada and the Great Lakes Region with a late
summer/early Fall air mass. As H850 temperatures fall back into
the high single digits we will will run 5-10 degrees below
normal for actual high temperature. Highs will be in the 60s to
lower 70s with an abundance of sunshine expected. Lows will be
in the 40s to lower 50s with some patchy radiational fog
possible. Humidity levels will be comfortable with a light
northwest breeze.

Friday...We continue to watch the track of Hurricane Dorian.
Track guidance keeps this storm southeast of the CWA. The ECMWF
is the most aggressive model with QPF developing in the
afternoon hours to the southeast of Albany with all available
guidance dry. Timing of the upstream short wave trough axis
moving through the Great Lakes region will be key to the track
and any QPF from Dorian. For now, per NHC tracks, we will slow
down the PoPs and keep the morning hours dry with the chance
PoPs in the afternoon to the southeast of Albany. Clouds will
increase across the entire region with highs remaining in to the
60s for most areas with lower 70s for valley locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Global models continue to differ with how far north and west
rainfall from Dorian makes it into the forecast area. The best
chance for any of this rainfall would be into the mid-Hudson
valley, Litchfield county, CT, and Berkshire county, MA Friday
night into Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts look fairly
limited as even the wetter ECMWF solution has about half of an
inch of rain in Litchfield county. Whether or not rainfall from
Dorian makes it into the region or not, the cloud cover from the
system will be expansive with the region being mostly cloudy
into Saturday morning. Temperatures overnight will be in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

An upper shortwave and weak surface cold frontal boundary will cross
the Great Lakes during the same time frame and help kick Dorian
further northeast of the region. The boundary may also spark off a
few showers in western areas through the day Saturday but most
locations should remain dry. Afternoon highs may reach the mid 60s
to lower 70s.

For the rest of the period, the weather should remain dry with
northerly surface flow in place. Temperatures will feel fall-like
with afternoon highs barely reaching the 70 degree mark Sunday
through Tuesday. Overnight lows will average in the 40s. Surface
flow turns towards the southeast Tuesday night as the next weather
system approaches the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A Cold front will move through the area this afternoon and
evening. Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area
from northwest to southeast between 2PM and 6PM. Ceilings and
vsibilities will generally be VFR, but may drop to IFR in
thunderstorms. By 00Z, expect clearing and VFR visibilities.
Will include BR across most sites after 06/08z with low level moisture
and calm to light winds.

Expect southwest winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 22kts this
afternoon. By 21z expect winds to shift to the west north west
at 10 to 15 kts once the cold front moves through. After 05z
expect light and variable winds.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front accompanied by showers and thunderstorms, some
strong to severe, will move across the region today. In the wake
of the frontal passage, cooler and drier air mass will move
into eastern New York and western New England. We continue to
watch the track of Hurricane Dorian as it tracks parallel and
off shore to the Atlantic seaboard through the end of this
week.

Max RH values will lower to 55 to 75 percent during the
afternoon, and then recovery back 80 to 100 percent overnight.
Those values fall back into the 40 percentile range on Thursday.

The winds will increase from the south to southwest at 5 to 15
mph and increase to between 10-20 mph during the afternoon with
some gusts to 30 mph expected. The winds will shift to the west
to northwest at 10 to 20 mph in the wake of the cold front late
in the day and become light from the north to northwest at less
than 10 mph tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydro problems are expected on the main stem
river the next several days.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will bring some localized
heavy rainfall with a few point amounts around an inch today.
Most locations will receive up to a quarter of an inch.

Cooler and drier conditions return tonight as high pressure
will bring mainly dry weather into Friday morning. Some showers
with the approach of the next upstream front and what, if any,
impacts from Dorian to the southeast of Albany late Friday into
Friday night.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BGM/Wasula
NEAR TERM...MSE/BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JLV
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
109 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ041>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084-
VTZ013>015-051100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
109 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, Lake George Saratoga Region, Capital Region,
Schoharie Valley, eastern Catskills, Helderbergs, eastern Mohawk
Valley, Taconics and Mid Hudson Valley of east central New York and
southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NYZ032-033-038>040-082-051100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Fulton-
109 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the southern Adirondacks and
western Mohawk Valley of eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Some isolated thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small hail
this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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