Flood Watch 4, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
344 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of showers will transition towards periods of moderate
to heavy rainfall through Thursday night across the region as a
potent storm approaches. Occasional gusty winds will accompany
this storm system. As strong cold front will cross and exit the
region Friday with windy conditions expected. Cooler and mainly
tranquil weather for most of the region this weekend, however,
some lake effect activity may impact portions of the western
Adirondacks.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT...Long wave positive tilted trough axis
extending from Hudson Bay through the panhandles of TX/OK is
resulting with a prolonged southwest flow regime across the
eastern third of the conus. Rather deep sub-tropical moisture
across the southeast conus where PWAT anomalies were already
3-4 standard deviations above normal moisture flux values were
near 6 deviations above normal. So the initial surge, with
strong isentropic lift, occurs tonight along the warm front
lifting northward. A period of showers, drizzle and rain will
overspread the area from south to north through the night. As
warm advection will be well underway, temperatures may not drop
too much tonight as lows will likely remain well into the 50s.
Low level jet magnitudes at or above 50kts are progged as well
where the higher terrain may be susceptible to a few higher
wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Potent storm becomes closed off across the mid-Mississippi River
Valley on Thursday as deep moisture transport advects northward.
As initially isentropic lift advances northward, there might be
a lull in the precip Thursday morning with drizzle before the
next impressive surge arrives later in the day. Moisture flux
magnitudes and anomalies are expected to exceed 6 deviations
above normal and PWAT anomalies up to 5 deviations above
normal. Rainfall could become heavy at times and combine that
with local research, favored upslope areas of the Dacks and
southern Greens can be a beneficiary of higher rainfall
totals/rates. For these reasons, along with river points
forecasts (see Hydro section below), we will issue a Flood Watch
for the I90 corridor and points northward. As for those wind
magnitudes, with southerly wind components and if we get a few
breaks and lowering jet core, could see a few wind gusts
approach or exceed wind advisory criteria. Per coordination,
this headline will also be issued for the entire region.

Rainfall, heavy at times, will impact the region Thursday
evening and through the night. Impressive cross sections suggest
slantwise convective potential increasing with lowering H850
LI's. Per coordination with SPC, the 'marginal risk' has been
extended northward as a narrow, but potential strong, cold
frontal convective rain band sweeps from west to east. Low level
jet magnitudes increase even further to greater than 60kts as
magnitude transfers to the surface may occur as well. The fropa
is expected to occur aoa 06Z as winds are expected to abruptly
shift toward the westerly direction with fropa. Increasing
mixing layer heights within the cold advection may touch 60kts
for a period of time at the top of the mixing layer, especially
toward sunrise. Temperatures will likely drop as well as those
H850 temperatures fall back below 0C.

Friday, in the wake of the storm and associated frontal passage,
wrap around moisture and some enhancement from Lake Ontario
with increasing delta t/s will keep the PoPs/Wx going for a
period of time. However, increase subsidence will eventually
lead toward breaks in the overcast to partly sunny conditions
across most of the region through the day. Brisk/Windy
conditions will prevail with a gradual decrease into the
afternoon hours. Temperatures within the cold advection will
likely not change too much during the day with highs into the
lower 50s for Hudson River Valley locations and mainly 40s
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As low pressure departs across Atlantic Canada on Friday night, high
pressure will be building into the area.  This will allow for winds
to diminish and skies to clear out.  With the clearing and light
winds, temperatures should fall quickly for the overnight, with lows
below freezing across the majority of the area with temps in the mid
20s to low 30s.

During the day Saturday, high pressure will depart off to the east
and there will southwest flow in place ahead of an advancing
shortwave trough over the Great Lakes.  After a clear and cold start
to the day, temperatures should rise to near normal levels for early
November, with highs near 50 in valley areas, and in the 40s across
the high terrain.  Skies should be fairly sunny through the day, but
clouds will start to increase by late in the day and into the
evening hours.

Northern stream shortwave trough will be moving across the area for
Saturday night into Sunday.  Moisture is very limited with this
system and the only areas that look to see precip is across the
western Adirondacks, where upslope and lake enhancement will aid in
producing precipitation.  There could be some rain showers (mixed
with snow showers across the high terrain, especially at night) for
the western Adirondacks, otherwise, it just look to be partly to
mostly cloudy.  Sat night lows will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s and
highs on Sunday will only be in the 40s (except mid to upper 30s for
the Adirondacks, Greens and Catskills).

Another high pressure area will move across the area for Monday.
This will allow any lake-enhanced precip to end and skies to
partially clear out.  Temps should be chilly, with daytime temps
still only in the 40s, despite some sunshine.

By Tuesday into Wednesday, the next system will be approaching from
the Great Lakes.  Although the best upper level forcing looks to
pass northwest of the region, there could be some southern stream
moisture that gets pulled northward towards the region. Most of
Tuesday may wind up being dry, but some showers look possible for
Tuesday night into Wednesday.  P-type will generally just be rain
showers, but some mixing with light wet snow will be possible for
behind the storm's cold front by late Wednesday across the higher
terrain.  Temps should be mild ahead of the front, with highs in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread BKN-OVC skies with ceiling heights in MVFR range in
place at the terminals this afternoon. With an inversion and
increasing low level moisture, these cigs are expected to
prevail through the daylight hours. Vsby/Cigs are expected to
deteriorate overnight, with widespread rain developing between
04Z-05Z. MVFR conditions will likely occur at the onset of the
rain, lowering to IFR within a few hours after the rain
commences. There looks to be a break in the steadier rain
starting around mid morning Thursday. However, there will still
MVFR/IFR conditions with a few lingering light showers around
as well.

Will start mention of low level wind shear late tonight through
Thursday morning, as a strengthening low level southerly jet
around 40-50 kt moves overhead.

Surface winds will be south-southeast less than 8 kt this
afternoon through tonight, increasing to 5-10 kt Thursday
morning.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy Definite SHRA...RA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Periods of rain, heavy at times, will impact the region tonight
through Thursday night. This will result with minimal to no fire
weather related impacts during this time period. Drier weather
returns later Friday and into most of the upcoming weekend, with
the exception of the Adirondack region where some lake effect
activity with showers and clouds may linger.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood watch issued for areas along the Interstate 90 corridor
and points northward.

Latest rainfall forecast totals and river forecast guidance from
the River Forecast Center point toward 1 to 3 inches of rain for
portions of the Adirondacks and southern Greens with 1 to 2
inches elsewhere. Given our recent wet pattern and elevated
river levels, points along the Mohawk, upper Hudson, Adirondack
head waters, Walloomsac and Hoosic may approach or exceed flood
stage. Furthermore, where poor drainage due to blocked storm
drains from fallen leaves may lead toward minor flooding as
well. The bulk of the heaviest QPF is expected to fall later
Thursday into Thursday night where rainfall rates up to one inch
within an hour is possible.

Drier weather returns Friday and into most of the area into the
weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
October rainfall through the 29th:

Albany NY: 6.71 inches (+3.26 inches). Wettest on record 13.49
inches 1869 and 2nd wettest 9.00 inches 2005. We need to get
another 0.19 inches this month to make it into the top 10 so
looks like October 2019 will make into the record books.

Glens Falls NY: 6.28 inches (+2.99 inches). Wettest on record
8.49 inches 2005. So far October 2019 is the 7th wettest on
record with more rain on the way.

Poughkeepsie NY: 4.57 inches (+0.36 inches). Wettest on record
17.59 inches 2005. We need to get another 1.03 inches this month
to make it into the top 10 so it's possible.

Bennington VT: 5.82 inches (+2.32 inches)

Pittsfield MA: 7.75 inches (+3.23 inches)

For more climate data/records go to our climate page:
www.weather.gov/climate

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ001-
     013.
NY...Wind Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ032-
     033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...Wind Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ001-
     025.
VT...Wind Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     VTZ013>015.
     Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for
     VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
CLIMATE...NWS ALY

www.weather.gov/albany

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