Blizzard Warning 1, NWS Albany, NY

450 
WWUS41 KALY 252038
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
338 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

NYZ032-260100-
/O.NEW.KALY.WC.Y.0005.190226T0500Z-190226T1300Z/
/O.CON.KALY.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190226T0000Z/
Northern Herkimer-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, 
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, and Northwood
338 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 1
  to 2 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph. Significant
  blowing and drifting snow expected. Drifts in excess of a foot
  possible. Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as
  20 below zero expected.

* WHERE...Northern Herkimer County.

* WHEN...For the Blizzard Warning, until 7 PM EST this evening. 
  For the Wind Chill Advisory, from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST 
  Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Strong 
  winds could cause tree damage. The cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded, stay with your vehicle. 

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frostbite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves. 

&&

$$

NYZ038-260100-
/O.CON.KALY.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190226T0500Z/
Southern Herkimer-
Including the cities of Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, 
Frankfort, and Dolgeville
338 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 2
  to 5 inches. Storm total accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with
  the higher amounts north of Interstate 90. Significant blowing
  and drifting snow expected. Drifts in excess of a foot
  possible. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Southern Herkimer County.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas 
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Very 
  strong winds could cause extensive tree damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded, stay with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

NYZ033-260100-
/O.NEW.KALY.WC.Y.0005.190226T0500Z-190226T1300Z/
/O.CON.KALY.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-190226T0000Z/
Hamilton-
Including the cities of Long Lake, Sabattis, Hoffmeister, 
and Wells
338 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one to two 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 65 mph. Very cold wind chills 
  expected. Wind chills as low as 20 below zero expected.

* WHERE...Hamilton County.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 7 PM EST this 
  evening. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from midnight tonight to 
  8 AM EST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.  Very 
  strong winds could cause extensive tree damage. The cold wind 
  chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 
  minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frostbite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves. 

&&

$$

NYZ082-260000-
/O.CON.KALY.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-190226T0000Z/
Northern Fulton-
Including the city of Caroga Lake
338 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of one to two inches
  with some blowing and drifting snow. Winds gusting to 60 to 65 
  mph.

* WHERE...Northern Fulton County.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas 
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Very 
  strong winds could cause extensive tree damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

&&

$$

130 
WWUS41 KALY 260007
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
707 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

NYZ032-260815-
/O.EXP.KALY.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190226T0000Z/
/O.CON.KALY.WC.Y.0005.190226T0500Z-190226T1300Z/
Northern Herkimer-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, 
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, and Northwood
707 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
8 AM EST TUESDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...Occasional snow showers with poor visibility will be
  possible this evening, with additional snow accumulations up to
  1 inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph, causing blowing and
  drifting snow. Drifts in excess of a foot possible. Very cold
  wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 20 to 25 below zero
  expected.

* WHERE...Northern Herkimer County.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The cold 
  wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little 
  as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frostbite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves. 

&&

$$

NYZ082-260500-
/O.EXP.KALY.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-190226T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KALY.WW.Y.0020.190226T0007Z-190226T0500Z/
Northern Fulton-
Including the city of Caroga Lake
707 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow showers will continue this evening, with additional
  snow accumulations of one to two inches with some blowing and
  drifting snow. Winds gusting to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Fulton County.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

&&

$$

NYZ033-260815-
/O.EXP.KALY.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-190226T0000Z/
/O.CON.KALY.WC.Y.0005.190226T0500Z-190226T1300Z/
Hamilton-
Including the cities of Long Lake, Sabattis, Hoffmeister, 
and Wells
707 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
8 AM EST TUESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...Occasional snow showers will continue this evening, with
  additional snow accumulations of up to one inch. Winds gusting
  as high as 50 mph. Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills 
  as low as 20 to 25 below zero expected.

* WHERE...Hamilton County.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The cold 
  wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little 
  as 30 minutes. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frostbite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves. 

&&

$$

NYZ038-260500-
/O.CON.KALY.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190226T0500Z/
Southern Herkimer-
Including the cities of Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, 
Frankfort, and Dolgeville
707 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 1
  to 2 inches. Storm total accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with
  the higher amounts north of Interstate 90. Significant blowing
  and drifting snow expected. Drifts in excess of a foot possible.
  Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Southern Herkimer County.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded, stay with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

641 
WWUS41 KALY 260240
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
940 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

NYZ038-260500-
/O.CON.KALY.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190226T0500Z/
Southern Herkimer-
Including the cities of Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, 
Frankfort, and Dolgeville
940 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations of up
  to one inch. Storm total accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with 
  the higher amounts north of Interstate 90. Significant blowing 
  and drifting snow expected. Drifts in excess of a foot possible.
  Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Southern Herkimer County.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas 
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded, stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

NYZ082-260500-
/O.CON.KALY.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-190226T0500Z/
Northern Fulton-
Including the city of Caroga Lake
940 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow showers will continue this evening, with additional
  snow accumulations of up to one inch with some blowing and 
  drifting snow. Winds gusting to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Fulton County.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas 
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

NYZ032-033-261100-
/O.CON.KALY.WC.Y.0005.190226T0500Z-190226T1300Z/
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, 
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, 
Hoffmeister, and Wells
940 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 20
  to 25 below zero expected.

* WHERE...Northern Herkimer County.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite
  on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frostbite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

&&

$$

611 
WWUS41 KALY 260456
WSWALY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
1156 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

NYZ038-260600-
/O.EXP.KALY.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190226T0500Z/
Southern Herkimer-
Including the cities of Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, 
Frankfort, and Dolgeville
1156 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

Lake effect snow showers and gusty winds are starting to diminish
across the western Mohawk Valley. As a result, dangerously low
visibility is no longer expected for the rest of the night and the
Blizzard Warning will be allowed to expire. Additional snow
accumulation will generally be under an inch.  

$$

NYZ082-260600-
/O.EXP.KALY.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-190226T0500Z/
Northern Fulton-
Including the city of Caroga Lake
1156 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

Lake effect snow showers are starting to diminish across northern
Fulton County. Up to an additional half inch is expected over the
next few hours before the snow showers move south and weaken. 

$$

NYZ032-033-261300-
/O.CON.KALY.WC.Y.0005.190226T0500Z-190226T1300Z/
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever, 
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis, 
Hoffmeister, and Wells
1156 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 
  20 below zero expected.

* WHERE...Northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frostbite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves. 

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
630 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air rushing into the region behind a powerful storm
system will allow for damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph today. In
addition, lake effect snow will impact the region as well,
especially across the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley,
where a moderate accumulation is expected. Dry but breezy conditions
with below normal temperatures are expected for Tuesday before a
widespread light snow impacts the region for Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 630 AM EST...Strong surface low continue to track across
west-central Quebec, while secondary surface low continues to
quickly move across Atlantic Canada, with 3 hr pressure falls
of nearly 10 mb offshore eastern Canada. Meanwhile, pressure
rises also of around 10 mb are occurring on the backside of the
main low across eastern Ontario and western Quebec. This is
making for a rather impressive pressure gradient in place over
the Northeast for today.

In addition, strong cold advection behind the departing frontal
boundary is allowing for good mixing and very strong winds are
in place aloft. KENX VWP is already showing winds around 50 kts
at 4 kft. Even stronger winds are upstream of the region over
western/central NY and these winds are heading our way, with 925
hpa winds expected to reach 50 kts and 850 hpa winds of around
60 kts (about 3 to 4 STD above normal according to the 00z GEFS)
during the day today.

Although mixing has been somewhat tame overnight due to plenty
of lingering clouds, light precip and nocturnal impacts, deep
mixing is expected to occur through the day today. Although
there is still some degree of how deep mixing will be (GFS shows
mixing almost all the way to 700 hpa, while NAM is more closer
to 800 hpa), strong winds will mix down to the surface during
the day today, especially between the late morning and afternoon
hours.

Although westerly winds have only been gusting to 20 to 35 mph
earlier in the overnight across much of eastern NY and western
New England, wind gusts have been increasing over the last few
hours. The Mohawk Valley and Catskills are now seeing gusts
around 50 mph and by late morning into the afternoon, gusts of
50 to 65 mph can be expected, with the highest gusts across the
Mohawk Valley, Helderbergs, eastern Catskills, and southern VT.
Even the Capital Region should see some top gusts of around 60
mph. These winds will be causing some downed tree limbs, trees
and power lines, which will result in numerous power outages
across the region today. High Wind Warning remains in effect for
the entire region through the day today.

With plenty of cold air rushing into the region, there has
already been plenty of lake-enhanced and upslope snow showers
due to the cyclonic flow in place. Some of this moisture even
originates off Lake Erie and is making it all the way into our
area and some narrow bands of snow have been occurring across
the Capital Region and Taconics this morning, leaving a quick
coating of snow. These narrow bands of lake effect snow will
continue to become more organized through the day and the lake
effect will start to become more of a single band across the
western Adirondacks during the morning hours thanks to the
westerly flow over Lake Ontario. By this afternoon, this single
band will be shifting southward across the Mohawk Valley. With
the strong winds in place aloft and a good multi-lake
connection, this band of snow should have a far inland extent,
so we expect this band of extend all the way into the Saratoga
and Capital Region and perhaps even as far as the
Taconics/Berkshires as well for later today. In addition to the
lake effect, the moist, westerly flow should be allowing some
upslope snow showers to impact western New England, as well as
the western Adirondacks and parts of the eastern Catskills.
Although anywhere seeing lake effect may see at least a dusting,
the best accumulation will occur across the western Adirondacks
and Mohawk Valley, where 2 to 6 inches will occur. A few spots
in central Herkimer County near the Oneida County border may see
locally up to 8 inches. In addition, the strong winds will
allow for plenty of blowing snow, which will also be reducing
visibility.

Strong cold advection should keep temps fairly steady or slowly
falling through the day today. Temps will mainly be in the 20s
(some teens over the Adirondacks).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Although the damaging winds should be subsiding this evening, it
will still be pretty windy into the overnight for tonight, with
gusts of 30 to 50 mph through midnight, and gusts still 25 to 40
mph after midnight as well. We will likely need to either extend
current High Wind Warning or issue Wind Advisory for part of
tonight to account for these continued gusty winds.

Otherwise, lake effect band will continue to drop southward.
Some lake effect snow showers or flurries may reach into
Schoharie County, Helderbergs and the eastern Catskills
overnight, but the best accumulating snow will remain west of
the area across central New York for tonight, with just an
additional coating to inch for our area. Overnight lows will be
in the single digits and teens, and with the gusty winds, wind
chill values look to below zero for much of the area. Wind Chill
values could come close to advisory criteria over parts of the
central Adirondacks, but this looks to isolated to need a Wind
Chill Advisory at this time.

Lake effect snow (mainly for central New York) will still be
ongoing for Tuesday, but it should be start to diminish, as
inversion heights will be lowering through the day thanks to the
approach of a high pressure area. Little to no additional lake
effect snow accumulation is expected for our area Tuesday, with
a partly to mostly sunny sky. It will be fairly cold for
Tuesday, with temps only in the mid teens to mid 20s for most
areas. It will still be somewhat breezy even for Tuesday due to
good mixing (until inversion heights lower late in the day) with
some gusts up to 30 mph at times.

Dry and cold weather will continue for Tuesday night as high
pressure passes over the area. Winds will finally subside and
lows will fall into the single digits to low teens (some below
zero readings for the Adirondacks).

The next storm system will be quickly approaching for Wednesday,
as a northern stream shortwave heads towards the area from the
Great Lakes. Although the day should start dry, clouds will
quickly increase and some light snow looks likely by afternoon
with highs only in the teens and 20s. Still some question about
the exact track of the low and how much QPF will occur due to
limited moisture, but a period of steady light snow looks to
occur by late in the day, which may impact the evening commute.
A light accumulation is possible by evening for much of the
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rather active period of weather as we head into the start of
meteorological spring that will likely offer unseasonably chilly
temperatures into the start of March.

We begin with Wednesday night as a strong baroclinic zone will set
up along or just to the north of I80 Wednesday night.  NCEP Model
Suite and international global guidance suggest a weak wave of low
pressure will transverse this baroclinic zone from west to east with
some light snow potential for the region.  QPF and ensembles suggest
a tenth to one-quarter of an inch Wednesday night which suggests 1-
4" of snow without the mention of where the best Fgen will occur.
However, this is a rather progressive system as snow should end
rather quickly from west to east overnight with the departure of the
surface wave off the southern New England coastline.  Overnight lows
range from the single digits to lower 20s in the mid-Hudson Valley.

Thursday, a narrow ridge of high pressure is expected to crest
across the region to keep the weather tranquil.  Temperatures will
remain chilly as H850 temperatures will generally be at or below -
10C.  Highs should average into the 20s to the lower half of the
30s.  Thereafter, global models diverge toward the end of the week
as a complex interaction with pv-anomaly over the eastern Pacific
Ocean and the polar vortex attempting to protrude southward across
the Plains States.

Friday through Sunday, the GFS and GFS-FV3 latch onto the Pacific
system and attempt to phase this feature with the digging polar
vortex with a strengthening storm across the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes into the first weekend of March.  The ECMWF is a bit more
progressive with a reduce impact of QPF across the region.  Due to
low confidence forecast, we will keep PoPs in the 30-50% categories
with the highest values set for Saturday with some form of a frontal
passage.  Regardless of QPF, seems likely unseasonably chilly
temperatures are expected this weekend as H850 temperatures and
ensemble means point toward values close to -20C.  Some lake effect
snow will be probable into portions of the Dacks and western Mohawk
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main impact the next 12-18 hours will be the strong wind gusts
at the TAF sites, along with the potential for some snow
showers/squalls due to lake effect.

Wind gusts will occasionally gust above 40kts then approach or
exceed 50kts during the day. As for snow showers/squalls, latest
guidance points toward a lake effect band to develop and move down
the Mohawk and may impact KALB-KPSF with brief IFR conditions.  We
will place this within a TEMPO group into this morning. Otherwise,
sct-bkn VFR/MVFR ceilings.

Winds will slowly subside into tonight but still remain gusty with
25-35kt gusts from the west-northwest.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SN.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the week.

Some lake effect snow showers will impact the region today,
especially western parts of the area, but total liquid
equivalent will be under a quarter of an inch and this
precipitation will have no immediate impact on rivers and
streams. Temperatures will generally be below normal for the
next few days, and with rather cold temperatures expected at
night, river and lake ice may increase and thicken for some
areas.

Another period of light snowfall is expected Wednesday into
Thursday, but this also won't have any immediate impact as it
will be completely frozen precip. Temperatures may finally
return to near normal late in the week. Another storm system may
impact the region with snow or rain late Friday into Saturday,
but amounts and exact types are still quite uncertain with this
storm.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ032-
     033-038-082.
MA...High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...Frugis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
412 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084-
VTZ013>015-261200-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Northern Warren-Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
412 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, the Lake George Saratoga Region, Taconics,
central and eastern Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital Region, eastern
Catskills, Helderbergs, Schoharie Valley, mid Hudson Valley of east
central New York, and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

Scattered bands of lake effect snow will occur through the day today.
A light accumulation of snow is possible, and this may lead to
locally slippery travel, especially across the higher elevations.
Gusty winds may allow for blowing of snowfall, resulting in reduced
visibility.

Gusty winds may continue into the overnight hours and an additional
Wind Advisory (or extension of the current High Wind Warning) may be
needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A storm system will bring light snow accumulation for Wednesday into
Wednesday night. If a more moderate accumulation appears likely, a
Winter Weather Advisory would be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report measured high wind gusts, wind damage and snowfall
accumulation to the National Weather Service by phone, social media
or email at ALB.stormreport@noaa.gov.

NYZ032-033-038-082-261200-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Northern Fulton-
412 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Herkimer, Hamilton and northern
Fulton Counties in eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

Gusty winds may continue into the overnight hours and an additional
Wind Advisory (or extension of the current High Wind Warning) may be
needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A storm system will bring light snow accumulation for Wednesday into
Wednesday night. If a more moderate accumulation appears likely, a
Winter Weather Advisory would be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report measured high wind gusts, wind damage and snowfall
accumulation to the National Weather Service by phone, social media
or email at ALB.stormreport@noaa.gov.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
742 AM EST MON FEB 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 AM     SNOW             1 WNW WILMINGTON        42.87N  72.88W
02/25/2019  M1.0 INCH        WINDHAM            VT   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0600 AM     SNOW             4 NNW DOLGEVILLE        43.16N  74.81W
02/25/2019  M2.0 INCH        HERKIMER           NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0600 AM     SNOW             3 NE HOUSATONIC         42.29N  73.32W
02/25/2019  M1.0 INCH        BERKSHIRE          MA   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1901406
EVENT NUMBER ALY1901407
EVENT NUMBER ALY1901408

TAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
814 AM EST MON FEB 25 2019

NYZ033-041>043-083-084-251400-
Hamilton-Northern Washington-Southern Washington-Southeast
Warren-Northern Warren-Northern Saratoga-
814 AM EST MON FEB 25 2019

...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...CENTRAL
WARREN AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 813 AM EST, a band of heavy snow was located over Lake George
Village and northern Warren County, moving east southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this band of snow.

This band will be near...
  Comstock around 835 AM EST.
  Hartford around 840 AM EST.
  Granville around 850 AM EST.

Other locations impacted by this band of heavy snow include Thurman
Station, Cleverdale, Girards Sugarbush, Smiths Basin, Adamsville,
North Granville, South Bay Village, South Granville, Truthville and
Oneida Corners.

This includes Interstate 87 between exits 20 and 23.

Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a quarter of a mile in
this squall.

Icy roads are possible as the snow melts on the roads then quickly
refreezes.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4353 7324 4327 7326 4342 7432 4365 7435
TIME...MOT...LOC 1313Z 274DEG 33KT 4343 7372

KSL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
819 AM EST MON FEB 25 2019

NYZ058>061-064-065-251400-
Eastern Columbia-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Western
Greene-Western Dutchess-Eastern Ulster-
819 AM EST MON FEB 25 2019

...A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
ULSTER...NORTH CENTRAL DUTCHESS...SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA AND GREENE
COUNTIES...

At 818 AM EST, an area of heavy snow was located over Hunter, moving
east at 55 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this area of heavy snow.

This area of heavy snow will be near...
  North-South Lake Campground around 830 AM EST.
  Saugerties around 835 AM EST.
  Catskill around 840 AM EST.
  Hudson, Claverack, Livingston, Clermont and Claverack-Red Mills
  around 845 AM EST.
  Philmont around 850 AM EST.
  Ancram around 855 AM EST.

Other locations impacted by this area of heavy snow include West
Settlement, Kerleys Corners, Manorville, North Lexington, Katsbaan,
Burden, Kiskatom, Cairo Junction, Jackson Corners and East Jewett.
This includes Interstate 87 between exits 20 and 21.

Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a quarter of a mile in
this area of heavy snow.

Icy roads are possible as the snow melts on the roads then quickly
refreezes.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4237 7438 4236 7434 4236 7432 4225 7358
      4199 7362 4200 7370 4199 7370 4207 7409
      4210 7408 4211 7423 4213 7436 4218 7447
TIME...MOT...LOC 1318Z 279DEG 47KT 4222 7424

TAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
837 AM EST MON FEB 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 AM     SNOW             JEFFERSON               42.46N  74.58W
02/25/2019  M3.0 INCH        SCHOHARIE          NY   WEATHERNET6

            WEATHERNET6

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1901409

TAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
840 AM EST MON FEB 25 2019

NYZ033-041-042-082>084-VTZ013-251430-
Hamilton-Northern Fulton-Southern Washington-Southeast
Warren-Northern Warren-Northern Saratoga-Bennington-
840 AM EST MON FEB 25 2019

...AN BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
HAMILTON...SOUTHERN WARREN...NORTHERN SARATOGA...NORTHEASTERN
FULTON...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN BENNINGTON COUNTIES...

At 838 AM EST, an band of heavy snow was located near Corinth, or 11
miles west of Glens Falls, moving east at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible within this band of heavy
snow.

This band of heavy snow will be near...

  Glens Falls, West Glens Falls and Glens Falls North
  around 850 AM EST.
  Hudson Falls and Fort Edward around 855 AM EST.
  Salem around 915 AM EST.
  Manchester, Dorset and Manchester Center around 930 AM EST.

Other locations impacted by this band of heavy snow include
Chiselville, Lake Luzerne, Northumberland, Whitehouse,
Conklingville, East Kansas, Shushan, Hope Falls, Danielstown and
Benson.

This includes Interstate 87 between exits 16 and 20.

Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a quarter of a mile in
this area of heavy snow.

Icy roads are possible as the snow melts on the roads then quickly
refreezes.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4350 7459 4333 7331 4331 7324 4331 7302
      4305 7308 4328 7465
TIME...MOT...LOC 1338Z 278DEG 41KT 4327 7388

KSL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
905 AM EST MON FEB 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST HESSVILLE               42.87N  74.69W
02/25/2019  M69 MPH          MONTGOMERY         NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1901410

JEC