Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
329 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will move east along a cold front that drops south
across the area tonight. A stronger cold front crosses the area
late Sunday. High pressure builds into the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Svr Tstrm watch remains in effect thru 11 PM as convection continues
due to low pressure moving east along a southward moving cold front.
Shaping up to be a rather active evening so will keep chc to likely
PoPs for now as the upr lvl systm tracks se across the Piedmont with
shwrs/tstrms dvlpng late this aftrn / eve. High res data suggests
large hail / damaging wind scenario along with lclly hvy rainfall.
Frequent lightning possible as well. Activity shifts south after
midnight with lingering PoPs across the south thru the nite. Dry
ovr the lwr Md ern shore. Lows in the mid-upr 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Upper low is slow to leave Sat morning. Lingering moisture along
a sfc trof results in keeping chc PoPs across the south with any
thunder mainly confined to NC in the aftrn (no svr expected).
Mstly sunny north to pt sunny south. Highs in the low-mid 80s.
Fair to pt cldy Sat nite with slght chc PoPs over the far north.
Lows in the 60s.

Trough aloft amplifies into the region pushing a stronger cd front
across the region late Sun before moving offshore Sun nite. Pt
sunny Sun with chc PoPs increasing north to south during the
day. Highs in the 80s. PoPs shift east toward the coast Sun eve
before ending after midnite. Lows upr 50s nw to upr 60s se.

Sunny / cooler Mon. Highs in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure will move off shore tonight. Winds overnight will be 5-
10 kt and seas will come down to around 1 ft in the bay and 2-3 ft
in the Atlantic. As a cold front approaches from the north,
southwesterly winds will increase tomorrow afternoon. Not going with
any SCA for tomorrow afternoon because conditions will be marginal.
Gust may exceed 25 kt for a short period of time and waves will
touch 5 ft off the Eastern Shore's Atlantic coast(mostly far
offshore edge of our zones). Farther south in the Atlantic, winds
will between 15-20 kt with waves 3-4 ft. In the Chesepeake Bay and
rivers, winds Thursday afternoon will be 10-15 kt and waves will be
around 1-2 ft.

Behind the cold front on Friday, high pressure will build back into
the area for the holiday weekend. Looks like winds and seas will
stay below SCA criteria through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions to start off the forecast period despite being in a
svr tstrm watch until 03Z. MVFR CIGS along with lcl IFR VSBYS in any
tstrm this eve along with gusty winds. Frequent lightning possible
as well. Added a TEMPO at RIC amd ECG btwn 22Z-02Z based on
confidence for the latest high res model data. VCTS at ORF/PHF. S BY
stays dry.

Outlook... Lingering showers possible at ORF/PHF/ECG Sat as the
system is slow to pull offshore. More shwrs/tstrms by late Sun as
the next cold front drops south into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Low pressure will track eastward along a stalled frontal boundary
over central/eastern NC this afternoon and tonight before moving
offshore early Sat AM. Winds will remain from the E-SE 5-15 kt late
this aftn-evening as the low tracks from central to ern NC. Winds
turn to the NNE at similar speeds by 12z Sat as the low slowly
deepens as it moves offshore. Seas stay around 2-3 ft through the
day on Sat but may build 4 ft S by Sat aftn (due to NNE winds in the
wake of the low). While forecast winds/seas are below SCA criteria
through Sat, tstms late this aftn-tonight across the south will
prompt the issuance of SMWs/MWSs to cover locally higher gusts due
to convection. Winds are forecast to remain aob 10 kt late Sat-Sat
night as the low moves well offshore of the region. Sub-SCA
conditions are expected through Sun aftn before a stronger (for
early June) cold front crosses the waters Sun night-early Mon AM.
There is a chc of SCA conditions across most of the waters (due to
gusty N winds behind the front) Sun night-Mon AM. Seas 2-4 ft; waves
2-3 ft on the Bay.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

* A top 3 warmest May is expected at Richmond, Norfolk,
  Elizabeth City given the expected heat to finish the month
  (good chance for Norfolk and Elizabeth City to be the #1
  warmest). Current projections are for Salisbury to be either
  5th or 6th warmest.

* Number of Days of 90F+ in May:

* Site        Avg 2019 (thru 5/30)          Most (Year)

* Richmond:   2 days   7 days              11 days (1962)
* Norfolk:    2 days   8 days              13 days (1880)
* Salisbury:  1 day    3 days               7 days (1991)
* Eliz City:  2 days   8 days               9 days (1944)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
334 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

VAZ048-062-064-083>086-100-509>512-515>522-011945-
Fluvanna-Goochland-Caroline-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-
Northampton-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-
Eastern Henrico-Western King William-Eastern King William-
Western King and Queen-Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-
334 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and
evening. Storms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts, hail,
frequent lightning and locally heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ060-061-065>068-079>081-087>089-092-093-
095>098-011945-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Prince Edward-Cumberland-
Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-
Prince George-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-Southampton-Isle of Wight-
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
334 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
evening. The main threats will be damaging winds...large hail...frequent
lightning and locally heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

VAZ069-082-090-513-514-523>525-011945-
Powhatan-Charles City-James City-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
334 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and
evening. Storms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts, hail,
frequent lightning and locally heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MDZ021>025-VAZ075>078-099-011945-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Accomack-
334 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, east
central Virginia, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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