Severe Thunderstorm Warning 313, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
409 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak stationary boundary over northeast NC pushes south late
tonight as high pressure builds across the Northeast through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

This afternoon the surface high remains over to just east of
the Great Lakes while a stalled surface cold front draped over
the southern third of the forecast area from Hampton Roads west.

There has been a break in showers and storms this early
afternoon, however, with heating the HRRR and other high res
guidance suggests the sct development of showers and a few
storms generally either side of I95 and east into western
Tidewater. Have reduced POPs about 5 percent or so to middle to
high end chance for a narrow area, but otherwise slight to low
end chance pops. SPC is maintaining the Marginal Risk for a few
strong storms late this afternoon and evening based on the CAPE
and limited shear. Deep layer shear is not overly impressive at
around 30 knots. Chance for thunder will decrease tonight as
forcing aloft moves away to the east. Will maintain low chance
PoPs over the southeast through 06Z. Highs today will be
tempered somewhat by clouds and showers, ranging from the low
to mid 80s. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s N to
right around 70 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Surface high pressure builds into the region on Tuesday with
decreasing cloud cover. Highs will be similar to Monday in the
low to mid 80s with continued onshore flow. Overnight lows will
be mild with mid 60s inland to right around 70 near the coast. A
significant warming trend will commence on Wednesday and last
into Thursday as the aforementioned ridge aloft over the Gulf
Coast expands north and east toward the region. Surface high
pressure will also migrate offshore and allow low level winds
to become increasing southerly on Wednesday, bringing plenty of
low level moisture to the region. Highs in the upper 80s and low
90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. By
Thursday afternoon high reach mid 90s across inland areas with
low 90s closer to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

Large scale pattern from Fri-early next week will feature an
upper level anticyclone off he Carolina coast, with the main
westerly belt (and several shortwave troughs) passing from the
nrn Plains to the Northeast US. Low pressure (sfc-aloft) diving
SE from Quebec-Nova Scotia Thu night-Fri will drag a backdoor
cold front into the region by Fri AM. Latest 12z/09 GFS/ECMWF
are slightly more aggressive with the front on Fri, as they are
forecasting it to cross much of the region by Fri evening. The
aforementioned front is progged to stall near our CWA, and this
will serve as the focal point for shower/tstm development Fri
aftn, with the highest PoPs (30-40%) over srn/wrn zones. Cooler
on Fri with highs around 80F north/east with mid 80s south/west.
Lows Fri night in the mid 60s NW to around 70F SE.

Our region will be in SSW-SW flow aloft from this weekend-early
next week with the upper level anticyclone offshore. This will
lead to a slight chc of showers/tstms (highest during the
aftn/evening) each day as tropical moisture filters into the
area. Highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s from Sat-Mon, with lows
mainly in the upper 60s-low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

Generally VFR conditions had developed this afternoon with some
marginal MVFR at times with SCT-BKN cu. Expect scattered showers
and a few storms to develop this afternoon and evening but most
of this activity should remain inland though a shower or storm
could impact any of the terminal briefly. Do not expect a lot of
activity at any of the terminal sites though. Around sct
showers and storms expect reductions to MVFR/IFR into the
evening.

Overnight guidance is suggesting low stratus and some fog, so
anticipate IFR conditions before daybreak which will likely
last a few hours into Tue morning before mixing can improve
conditions.

Outlook: The front sags south of the area tonight with high
pressure building in for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

No marine headlines anticipated through the end of the week. A
boundary remains INVOF the Albemarle Sound this afternoon.
North of this boundary winds are generally ENE 5-10 kt around
the local waters. Waves 1 foot or so on the Bay with 2-3 ft seas
for the coastal waters.

The aforementioned boundary will push S into east-central NC
this evening/tonight...resulting in ENE winds no higher than
10-15 kt over all marine zones. Rather weak sfc high pressure
traverses nrn New England through Tue...keeping winds out of the
ENE (and remaining around 10 kt sustained). Winds become
light/VRB before veering back to the SSE on Wednesday, then SSW
on Thursday as the area of high pressure shifts offshore and low
pressure approaches the nrn Plains. Seas will remain in the 2-3
ft range (w/ 1-2 ft waves on the bay) through Thursday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...RHR/JAO
MARINE...JDM

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