Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
331 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is slowly progressing through the area today. The front
will nearly stall over the Carolina coast over the weekend. High
pressure will build in behind the front. Low pressure is expected to
develop along the front early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Issued a flash flood watch for portions of SE VA and NE NC through
late tonight. The cold front is slowing its progression through VA
this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along
and out ahead of the front. SPC has the region in a slight risk for
severe wx with damaging winds being the primary threat. The mean
flow across SE VA and NE NC is parallel to the front, and PW values
are around 2 inches so WPC has this part of the region in a slight
risk for excessive rain.

By Saturday morning the front is expected to be just off the
Carolina coast. High pressure builds in behind the front. NE flow
and plenty of low level moisture will be available that additional
showers will be around, especially in far SE VA and NE NC where pops
will still run 50-70 percent. High temps on Saturday will be much
cooler, only reaching the upper 70s in most locations, possibly
cooler in areas where rain persists. There will be a noticeable drop
in humidity especially from I64 north where dewpoints will be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds behind the front will be out of the
N/NE generally 5 to 10 mph, and a bit higher right along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Friday...

The models continue to push the sfc cold front southward toward
the Carolina Coast by Saturday evening and then stall it along
the coast as the surface high builds eastward into New England
with a good set up for a wedge to develop along the eastern
seaboard. The big adjustment was to continue to slow the
progression of the pops southward on Sat night as another
shortwave rotates through the exiting trough over northeast and
Mid-Atlantic. By Sunday morning, the surface high looks like it
will push the moisture far enough south to limit the chances for
any showers to mainly NE NC and the VA Tidewater with drying of
the mid and upper level expected to continue through the day on
Sunday suppressing the pcpn farther south through the day.
However, the low level moisture should remain in place with
strong easterly flow through about 850 mb. That may be enough to
hold clouds in place and could limit the day time heating. For
now have gone close to 80s most areas, but if those lower clouds
do hold together could see readings more in the mid 70s toward
the Southern Va Piedmont.

The forecast for Sunday night into Monday could change rapidly
over the next few days depending on the potential development of
a tropical system of the SE US coast. The models are struggling
with the development and location of the system with the 12z GFS
quicker to develop the system and move it northward into the
Carolinas by Monday afternoon while the 12 ECMWF is slower and
farther to the SE off the coast with much less impact to the
region. So for now have maintained a low chance pops for showers
with the moisture overrunning the wedging high and getting
temperatures back toward the lower 80s with good onshore flow.
Again will need to monitor the potential tropical development
along the SE US coast this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

The early part of the extended forecast will depend much upon any
development and potential track of the tropical disturbance
currently off the FL coast. Latest NHC outlook suggests that
this system will stay well off the local coast. Despite that,
given the proximity to the tropical system and the potential for
some tropical type showers to move across the area, and some
reinforcing moisture/lift from weak upper disturbances moving
across the Mid Atlc and NE states in the W-SW flow aloft, will
maintain low chance PoPs Mon night through Thu. However, if the
tropical system stays further offshore it is conceivable that
much of the middle of next week will be dry other than perhaps
some widely scattered afternoon/evening storms. Otherwise, by
Friday the GFS and ECMWF both show drying across the area as a
ridge axis builds in from the west. As such, have kept Friday
dry.

Temps on Tuesday will trend slightly below normal due to the
extensive cloudiness (although it will be muggy), but then rise to
near normal for Wed-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Cold front is currently across central VA roughly from Lynchburg
over to Richmond and Ocean City. Winds have turned to the N/NE
in those locations, and still W/SW ahead of the front. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening
bringing periods of MVFR/IFR conditions to the TAF locations. As
the front slows its progression towards the VA/NC line, MVFR
ceilings are likely to persist even after the heaviest of the
rain tapers off overnight. Even after the front pushes through
the area on Saturday, it will likely linger off the Carolina
coast over the weekend. A low pressure developing along the
front and a high building in to the north will keep an easterly
flow with ample moisture for the chance of additional showers
especially at eastern TAF locations.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Sfc cold front continues to drop south across waters this aftn.
Latest observations reflect NNEly flow over northern waters just
north of the front, with SSW flow over southern waters 10-15 KT just
ahead of the boundary. Sfc cold front will continue to slowly drop
south through central and southern waters late today through this
evening, before slowing down further/nearly stalling near the VA/NC
this evening...eventually pushing south of the region by Saturday
aftn. Ahead of the front, SW will continue ~10 to 15 knots. Behind
the front, winds veer around to the NNE at around 10 to 15 knots.
Still expect a round of showers and T-Storms, with numerous SMW/MWS
likely with convection along the frontal passage this evening over
the Bay, Rivers and northern/central waters. A short-lived surge
likely as cooler air initially settles across the waters. Seas this
aftn and tonight will generally range from 2 to 3 feet, and waves in
the Bay around 1 to 2 feet.

As surface high pressure builds in from the north and low pressure
develops along the Southeast coast on Saturday, NE winds will likely
increase to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Small Craft
Advisories have been issued for Saturday night and Sunday over the
Bay and lower James, and may be needed with into early next week as
onshore flow persists. NE flow will allow for seas to build to 5 to
6 feet (potentially 7 feet out 20 nm) and waves at the mouth of the
Bay to build to as high as 4 to 5 feet. Winds and seas look to
diminish by mid-week.

High pressure will continue to nose in from the north as the cold
front becomes quasi-stationary offshore Late Sat through Sunday
aftn. By Sunday night, sfc low pressure begins to take shape and
eventually slides NE along the front offshore into early next week.
Pressure gradient becomes more compressed with time Mon/Tue. While
considerable model differences persist, Probabilistic models all
seem to show sfc low tracking along the front. The GFS is a bit
weaker/slower and closest to the coast, while the ECMWF and its
ensemble mean stronger and farther offshore. Upshot for the moment
is strongest winds will remain offshore and will reflect as much for
now. NNW wind orientation should keep seas on the lower side of the
envelope and will stay just below Wavewatch.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ092-093-095>098-
     524-525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 PM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 6 PM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ638.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CMF
NEAR TERM...CMF
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...CMF
MARINE...MAM

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