Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
403 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough of low pressure will persist across the area
through Wednesday. A strong cold front moves across the area
Thursday night then stalls across North Carolina Friday. High
pressure builds into the area for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 335 PM EDT Tuesday...

Thunderstorms have developed across the MD Eastern Shore along
a weak boundary that has been situated east-west across the
area. Latest surface obs suggest that another weak trough is
developing across the I-64 corridor with obs north showing a
weak easterly wind while obs across the southern tier showing
S-SW winds. Models have been consistent in showing convection
developing along this boundary from the I-64 region from the
Tidewater through Richmond into Farmville late this afternoon
into this evening. As such, have maintained the highest PoPs in
this area this evening, although in reality any location could
see a pop up thunderstorm though this evening. Best DCAPE values
above 1000 j/kg remain across the northern tier and the
Piedmont per the SPC mesoanalysis, so it would see that this
area would have the best chance for any severe wind gusts. Still
think the main threat this afternoon will be from any heavy
rain. As seen with the storms currently over the Delmarva,
movement is slow at best so any storm that persists could lead
to some minor flooding in spots.

Otherwise, expect the storms to dissipate soon after sunset due
to loss of daytime heating. Another weak upper disturbance
currently over Georgia and South carolina will move northeast
tonight. This may bring an isolated shower across the far
southern tier late tonight and have introduced 20 PoPs in this
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM EDT Tuesday...

The above mentioned short wave will slowly move across the
forecast area on Wednesday. This disturbance combined with the
lee trough will allow for another day of widely scattered pop up
thunderstorms. Best activity may be in the east just ahead of
the short wave, but one could not rule out storms closer to the
lee trough in the Piedmont either. As such, will go with chance
pops everywhere once again, but focus the highest pops to the
east and to the west during the afternoon.

A cold front approaches the area later Thu and slowly moves
through the area through Friday. Will need to maintain chance
pops Thu aftn through Thu night. Indications that the front
nearly stalls across the area on Friday, which may allow for
some training of storms Friday afternoon especially across the
southern half of the area. As such, will go with likely pops
across the south on Friday.

Temperatures will remain seasonable with low-mid 90s for highs
and upper 60s-mid 70s for lows. Temps do drop back into the mid
80s on Friday with the frontal passage and increased cloudiness.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Tuesday...

Model consensus is slightly slower with the frontal passage than it
was yesterday, as the latest 12z/20 GFS has come into better
agreement with the ECMWF/GEM. The GFS is forecasting the front to be
invof srn VA/NE NC by early Sat AM. The latest ECMWF/GEM both have
the front positioned slightly further N. As a result, expect
showers/tstms to continue across the CWA (mainly S of I-64) for much
of Fri night with the front nearby. The cold front very slowly moves
southward next weekend as high pressure over the Great Lakes slowly
builds toward the region. Shower/tstm chances continue this weekend
over S/SW portions of the CWA as ridging aloft sets up off the SC/GA
coast and our region goes under moist WSW-SW flow aloft while sfc
ridging builds into the area. Have a mainly dry weekend forecast for
nrn zones w/ 30-40% PoPs for srn VA/NE NC. Continued chances for
mainly aftn-evening showers/tstms early next week as weak troughing
tries to re-establish itself from the Great Lakes to the Deep South
and deep layer moisture continues to stream into the region from the
SW.

Highs mainly in the low-mid 80s through the weekend with lows in the
60s (except for some low 70s in coastal SE VA/NE NC). Slightly
warmer by next Tuesday with highs mainly in the mid 80s.&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Another day of pop up thunderstorms. Best storms are currently
near SBY where we will carry tempo TSRA for the next few hours.
Meanwhile, the corridor from RIC to ORF may see some
thunderstorm development later this afternoon and have included
VCTS for now. Any storm could see brief IFR conditions and gusty
winds. Otherwise, it should remain VFR through the next 24 hr
although more storms are expected Wed.

OUTLOOK...
CHC for diurnal convection conts Wed then increases Thu as a cold
front approaches from the NW. The potential for showers/tstms lingers
into Fri if the cold front slows down or stalls over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

No headlines through at least today and most of Wednesday. Early
this afternoon obs continue to show generally a S/SW flow of 5-10
kts. Waves are 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft. Wednesday night winds and
seas will increase ahead of an approaching cold front. SW winds gust
15-20 kts, and seas build 3-5 ft. SCA may be needed late Wednesday
into Thursday. Latest model guidance continues to show the front
crossing through the area early on Friday, resulting in a N/NW flow
behind the front. Winds will then shift to onshore flow this
weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...MPR/MRD
MARINE...CMF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
348 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-
093-095>100-509>525-212000-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-
Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Accomack-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
348 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Widely scattered strong thunderstorms are possible through this
evening. The main threat will be strong wind gusts but heavy
downpours may cause some minor flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas. Frequent lightning will also be possible in any
storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday and
Thursday ahead and along a cold front that will move into the area.
This cold front will lead to additional thunderstorms with locally
heavy rain on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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