Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1059 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will drop south through the local area during
today, reaching North Carolina late this afternoon. The front
then becomes nearly stationary over the Carolinas this weekend
as high pressure resides over New England.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1050 AM EDT Friday...

Late this morning, a frontal boundary was dropping south thru
the CWA, helping to be a focus for enhancing showers over
central and scentral VA. That boundary will sink southward and
into NC later this aftn, and will continue to be a focus for
more showers and possible tstms over most of the area. The VA
nrn neck, and the Lower MD and VA ern shore locations will have
the lower chances for pcpn, esply the Lower MD ern shore. The
remainder of the CWA will have likely PoPs, and any heavier
showers could cause minor street flooding or minor flooding of
poor drainage areas. Highs today will range from the mid 70s to
lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1050 AM EDT Friday...

Frontal boundary will push farther south thru NC tonight,
resulting in higher PoPs and heavier showers getting shunted
farther SSW. Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s to near
70.

Sat will be the drier of the 2 days this weekend. The front
will still remain stalled over the Carolinas, while a NE or E flow
will continue over the region, as high pressure remains over or
just off the New England coast. A sfc low will develop along
the stalled front just off the northern NC coast late tonight
thru Sat, then it weakens during Sun as the flow becomes ESE.
This continued moisture flow will help to maintain at least chc
to likely PoPs over srn half of the region during Sat, then
increasing PoPs for all locations again during Sun. Highs will
range from the mid 70s to lower 80s Sat and Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...

The best chance for rain acrs the entire area this weekend still
looks to be during Sun/Sun night, as the New England ridge
finally starts to break down as the upper low over the MS Vly
opens up and starts to slowly move east. This will cause the
flow to become more southerly across the area which should allow
for the moisture over the southeastern states to finally move
north. Will generally maintain similar PoPs to the previous
forecast with chance PoPs Saturday Night across much of the area
except likely southwest. Will go with likely PoPs for the
entire forecast area Sunday as the best moisture and lift moves
across the area. Some drying tries to move into the SE part of
the forecast area Sunday night which may allow for decreased
chances for precip for areas SE of Richmond. However, onshore
flow will persist across the MD eastern shore as the GFS
suggests a weak surface low may develop along the front just
offshore and the 850mb front will be over the southern
Chesapeake Bay. As such, will go with likely pops across the MD
eastern shore and west of I-95, and chance Pops across the
Tidewater and NE NC. Will increase PoPs again Monday afternoon
to likely for this area as there will likely be some
afternoon/evening convection in response to the daytime heating.

Latest 00z guidance from both the GFS and ECMWF show the front
moving across the forecast area Tuesday, although the ECMWF is
faster. Will therefore maintain the likely pops, but will decrease
PoPs to chance in the afternoon across the MD eastern shore where
FROPA will be first.

Temps will generally be in the low-mid 80s for highs Sun-Tue,
although Monday will be the warmest day especially across the
southeast. Lows will be quite mild with upper 60s/lower 70s. .

Some lingering showers (mainly along the coast) on Wednesday,
and will keep Chc PoP in place. Pattern looks to calm down a bit
as we get into the later stages of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions are present tonight with linger mid-level clouds
at KPHF/KORF/KECG. More showers and possible tstms will be
likely over the srn half of the region during Fri, esply
affecting PHF/ORF/ECG, as the frontal boundary sags thru the
area into NC. MVFR Cigs possible in these areas.

Outlook...Pattern stays active for the next several days with
high chances for pcpn affecting the srn portions of the region
Fri night thru Sun, and increasing chances for nrn/NE portions
late Sat thru Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

A frontal boundary will sag slowly south across the waters
today, reaching the southern coastal waters around midday, then
pushing south of the local waters this afternoon. Early this
morning, winds are generally out of the WSW 5-15 kt, except NE
along the MD coast where the front is just starting to enter the
local waters. As the front moves south today, NE winds behind it
will increase to 10-15 kt. Seas 2-3 ft; waves in the Bay 1-2 ft.
Winds will remain onshore for an extended period into the
weekend with high pressure to the north and a coastal trough
developing along the Carolina coast. ENE winds of 10 to 20
knots expected through the weekend. In addition, increased onshore
flow will also allow for seas to build to 4 to 7 feet (highest
north) and waves in the Bay of 2 to 3 feet with up to 4 feet at
the mouth of the Bay. SCAs will likely be needed by later
Saturday into Sunday given the elevated winds and seas.
Unsettled conditions and elevated seas likely continue into
early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Persistent ENE flow develops this weekend leading to increased
water levels along the Atlantic coast and eventually up the
Chesapeake Bay. There's the potential for minor tidal flooding
by late Sunday or Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MAM/MRD
AVIATION...TMG/CP
MARINE...AJB/JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1122 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

MDZ021>024-VAZ048-062-064-075>078-082>086-090-509>512-515>525-081530-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Fluvanna-Goochland-
Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Charles City-
New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-James City-Western Louisa-
Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
1122 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-081530-
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
1122 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ060-061-065>069-079>081-087>089-092-093-
095>098-513-514-081530-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Prince Edward-Cumberland-
Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-
Prince George-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-Southampton-Isle of Wight-
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
1122 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Moist onshore flow coupled with a frontal boundary over the area
and into the Carolinas will result in showers and scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Rainfall may be locally
heavy at times. This may cause some minor flooding, especially in
poorly drained areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
146 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

NCZ014>017-031-032-071830-
Pasquotank-Camden-Gates-Perquimans-Western Currituck-Chowan-
146 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
CAMDEN...PASQUOTANK...PERQUIMANS...SOUTHEASTERN GATES...CENTRAL
CURRITUCK AND EASTERN CHOWAN COUNTIES...

At 144 PM EDT, thunderstorms with heavy rain were clustered from
Whitehall Shores to near Belvidere. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Elizabeth City, Camden, Hertford, Winfall, Elizabeth City State
University, Weeksville, Chapanoke, Snug Harbor, Nixonton, Shiloh,
Belvidere, Indiantown, Burgess, Old Trap, Whitehall Shores,
Pasquotank, Saint Johns, Parkville, Yeopim Station and Jacocks.

If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of these storms.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy
rain could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor
flooding of ditches and poor drainage areas.

LAT...LON 3601 7653 3641 7661 3641 7591 3617 7589
      3616 7593 3618 7600 3614 7600 3615 7606
      3614 7607 3614 7610 3613 7611 3612 7617
      3610 7621 3611 7627 3608 7633 3608 7644
      3607 7641 3602 7647
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 271DEG 12KT 3630 7613 3631 7650

EI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WNW GLEN ALLEN        37.68N 77.54W
06/07/2019                   HENRICO            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED PONDING OF WATER ON
            ROADWAYS IN GLEN ALLEN NEAR I-295 AND
            STAPLES MILL ROAD.

0200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE SHORT PUMP        37.66N 77.57W
06/07/2019  M2.32 INCH       HENRICO            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR.

&&

EI

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