Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
433 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will drop into North Carolina tonight, then
remain nearly stationary over the Carolinas through Sunday. That
boundary will lift back north across the area as a warm front
during Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 400 PM EDT Friday...

Late this aftn, a frontal boundary dropping thru the area
combined with ample low level moisture and lift was producing
numerous showers and tstms over most of the CWA. Slow moving
or nearly stationary showers and tstms were causing heavy rains
and flooding across central and SE VA and NE NC. This activity
will gradually weaken and shift farther SSW twd NC later this
evening into early tonight, as the boundary gets pushed that way
also. So, flooding could still be a problem with heavier showers
thru this evening. Please monitor for any flood warnings or
advisories. PoPs will gradually diminish from NE to SW tonight
into Sat morning. Lows tonight in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 420 PM EDT Friday...

Sat will be the drier of the 2 days this weekend. The front
will still remain stalled over the Carolinas, while a NE or E
flow will continue over the region, as high pressure remains
over or just off the New England coast. A sfc low will develop
along the stalled front just off the nrn NC coast Sat morning,
then it weakens during Sun as the flow becomes ESE. This
continued moisture flow will help to maintain at least chc to
likely PoPs over srn/SW counties during Sat, then increasing
PoPs for all locations again late Sat night and Sun. Highs will
range from the mid 70s to lower 80s Sat and Sun.

High chance to likely PoPs will continue acrs the entire area
Sun night thru Mon. Upper/sfc low pressure from the OH/TN
valley into the Gulf coast states will continue to provide a
moist E-S flow into the region. This combined with the return of
the frontal boundary as a warm front, will help to produce more
showers and possible tstms. Lows Sun night in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Highs on Mon 80 to 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...

Continued unsettled wx/rain chances throughout much of next
week as a deep upper trough amplifies over the MS Valley by midweek
before slowly moving E toward Atlantic Coast by the end of next
week. Latest 12z/07 GFS/ECMWF continue to show the cold front moving
across the forecast area during the day on Tuesday as an area of low
pressure tracks to our N. This should lead to a break in the rain
for the northwestern half of the CWA. However, rain likely continues
across the SE from Tue-Tue night as a srn stream shortwave
approaches the region and another area of sfc low pressure develops
to our SSW. As the aforementioned shortwave/sfc low move toward the
region on Wed, expect rain and perhaps a few tstms (best chc of
tstms is in SE VA/NE NC) to overspread the area once again. The low
exits to the NE by Thu, but there will be a chc of aftn-evening
showers/tstms across the area as another (weak) cold front
approaches the region. Perhaps drying out by Fri as the weak cold
front crosses the region and high pressure builds in from the W.

High temperatures will generally be in the upper 70s-low 80s from
Tue-Thu (although Wed could potentially be a bit cooler w/ rain
potentially persisting for a good portion of the day). Lows will
mainly range from around 60F NW-around 70F SE through the extended
period.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Showers and tstms into much of this evening will cause MVFR to
possibly isolated IFR conditions at RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG. Then,
expect VFR to MVFR CIGs at these sites with isolated to sctd
showers late tonight into Sat morning. Mainly just sctd showers
and isolated tstms expected at RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG during Sat with
VFR to MVFR conditions.

Outlook...Pattern stays active for the entire region late Sat
night thru Mon, with high to likely chances for pcpn which will
cause flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

SCA is in effect for increasing E and NE wind Saturday and
building seas.

The frontal boundary has pushed south just south of the NC/VA
border with winds east at 10 to 15 kt across the lower Bay and
coastal waters from Cape Henry north. Waves over the ocean
remained around 2 ft, but were slowly building from Cape Henry
north to Ocean City. Over the Bay waves remained around 1 ft
starting to build to 2 ft through the evening.

Marine conditions deteriorate late Sat morning and into early
afternoon as E/ENE winds increase to 20 kt over the coastal
waters and 15 to 20 kt over the bay. Expect seas and waves to
increase quickly late Sat morning into early Sat afternoon. The
onshore flow will allow for seas to build to 4 to 7 feet
(highest north) and waves in the Bay of 2 to 3 feet with up to 4
feet at the mouth of the Bay. SCAs are in effect for Saturday
and into Sunday. Conditions do not improve much Sunday as high
res models intensify a coastal trough along the Carolina coast
which will extend north to off the SE VA coast. This could
resultin a decease in wind from Cape Henry south, but winds
north of Cape Henry will persist at 20 kt. Overall expect SCA
conditions from the NC/VA border north and across all the Bay
through much of the weekend.

Seas of 5 ft will linger in the coastal waters into Monday as
winds become more SE and weaken. &&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 400 PM EDT Friday...

Persistent ENE flow develops this weekend leading to increased
water levels along the Atlantic coast and eventually up the
Chesapeake Bay. There's the potential for minor tidal flooding
by late Sunday or Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652-654-656.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/JAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1122 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

MDZ021>024-VAZ048-062-064-075>078-082>086-090-509>512-515>525-081530-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Fluvanna-Goochland-
Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Charles City-
New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-James City-Western Louisa-
Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
1122 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-081530-
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
1122 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ060-061-065>069-079>081-087>089-092-093-
095>098-513-514-081530-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Prince Edward-Cumberland-
Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-
Prince George-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-Southampton-Isle of Wight-
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
1122 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Moist onshore flow coupled with a frontal boundary over the area
and into the Carolinas will result in showers and scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Rainfall may be locally
heavy at times. This may cause some minor flooding, especially in
poorly drained areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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