Beach Hazards Statement 1, NWS Wakefield, VA

302 
WHUS41 KAKQ 091556
CFWAKQ

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1156 AM EDT Thu May 9 2019

NCZ102-VAZ098-091700-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.BH.S.0001.000000T0000Z-190510T0000Z/
/O.CAN.KAKQ.RP.S.0001.000000T0000Z-190510T0000Z/
Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-
1156 AM EDT Thu May 9 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has cancelled the Beach
Hazards Statement. The High Rip Current Risk has been cancelled.

There remains a moderate rip current risk at Virginia Beach and 
the northern Outer Banks this afternoon. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
152 AM EDT Thu May 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary stalls over the area tonight before lifting back
north as a warm front Thursday. Another cold front moves into the
region late Friday, then stalls across the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 955 PM EDT Wednesday...

A cold front is lingering from central VA to the VA Ern Shore
this evening. Isolated to scattered showers continue near the
boundary. However, the heavier rain from late aftn/early evening
has ended. 20-40% PoPs continue through 06z, mainly from the
Piedmont and n-central VA, and then diminish overnight as the
boundary lifts nwd as a warm front. Some patchy fog or stratus
is possible for locations that received rain and remain N of the
boundary, and this will mainly be from the Nrn Neck to the MD
Ern Shore. Forecast lows tonight range from the mid/upper 50s N
to the low 60s S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday...

Models now show the boundary rather slow to drift north Thursday not
reaching the lower Md ern shore until late. Local area into the warm
sector results in a dry and warm day. Exception will be across the
nwrn most zones where a stray tstm possible in the aftn as
convection drifts east off the mts. Morning clouds break most
areas with a pt to mstly sunny aftn. May stay mstly cldy ern
shore until the aftn. Highs 70-75 ern shore, upr 70s-lwr 80s
west of the bay.

Pt to mstly cldy but remaining dry Thurs nite. Lows 60-65. The next
front approaches Fri with chc PoPs in the aftn across the west
and north. Highs mid-upr 70s ern shore, 80-85 west of the bay.
The front crosses the area Fri night before settling into NC
Sat. Will carry chc PoPs, tapering off across the nw after
midnite. Lows 60-65.

Sat looks cooler/wetter as an overrunning scenario sets up due
to low pressure apprchg from the sw. Still some uncertainty as
to how far north pcpn gets but will carry chc PoPs most areas
ramping up to likely PoPs across the sw after 18Z. Left thunder
out given the onshore flow, but it will depend on where the
front stalls. Highs near 70 far north to near 80 far south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

Latest model runs show unsettled weather conditions acrs the CWA
Sat night into Mon morning. Low pressure and an associated warm
front followed by a cold front will provide high chance to
likely PoPs (50-70%) for showers and possible tstms during this
period. Dry weather conditions then expected later Mon aftn thru
Wed, as high pressure builds into/over the region, then slides
offshore.

Highs will mainly range thru the 70s to around 80 Sun, in the
lower to mid 70s Mon and Tue, and in the mid 70s to lower 80s
Wed. Lows Sat night and Sun night will mainly range fm the upper
50s to mid 60s, and ranging thru the 50s to around 60 Mon night
and Tue night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Thursday...

A cold front extends from central VA to the VA Ern Shore early
this morning. Showers to the NW of RIC terminal in vicinity of
the front are gradually diminishing early this morning and
should remain clear of terminals. The front will retreat back
to the N as a warm front later this morning. VFR CIGs at
majority of terminals attm will give way to MVFR cigs ~1.0 kft
AGL are expected to re-develop at SBY with onshore flow on the
cool side of the boundary, and will potentially fall to IFR as
the front nears overnight. RIC will potentially have some MVFR
vsby at around sunrise this morning. Otherwise, partly cloudy
to mostly clear and dry conditions are expected at PHF/ORF/ECG.
The wind will become SSE at 5-10kt today with decreasing
clouds.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions will continue tonight into
midday Friday as high pressure prevails offshore. A cold front
approaches from the NW later Friday, and this will likely
produce some showers/tstms later Friday aftn into Friday
evening. There is a higher chc of showers and tstms and degraded
flight conditions Saturday into Sunday as the front settles
into the area. Unsettled conditions potentially continue into
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 935 PM EDT Wednesday...

Have extended the SCA for ANZ650-ANZ652 zns until 400 AM Thu
morning, as seas remain between 4-6 ft due to long period
swells. Seas should subside to 3 to 4 ft by around daybreak Thu
for all coastal zones.

Previous Discussion:

Latest sfc analysis shows a cold front positioned from the central
VA Piedmont ENE to near Wallops Island. Winds are mainly out of the
E at around 10 kt N of the front, with SE winds of 5-15 kt across
the majority of the waters S of the front (highest across the srn
Ches Bay). Seas are around 4 ft in most areas (due to long period
swell). However, Buoy 44009 has consistently shown 6 ft seas
throughout the day today. Given that NWPS/WaveWatch guidance is
predicting steady/gradually diminishing seas this evening (and
guidance is underestimating seas across the far nrn coastal waters),
opted to extend the SCA through 02z/10 PM this evening for ANZ650.

The weak cold front is forecast to slowly drop southward into the
area this evening and perhaps make it as far south as Cape Charles
before stalling by late evening/early tonight. SE winds are expected
to briefly remain around 15 kt across the srn Ches Bay this evening
(a few gusts to 20 kt possible at elevated sites) before diminishing
tonight. Otherwise, winds will be E-SE at around 10 kt over most of
the waters through tonight. The front will slowly return northward
as a weak warm front on Thursday. Winds will be SSE at 10-15 knots
during the day on Thu. Winds veer to SSW on Friday and increase
slightly (~15 kt on the Ches Bay/~20 kt over the ocean) ahead of a
cold front approaching from the NW. The cold front crosses the CWA
on Sat before stalling late in the day in response to low pressure
approaching from the W. Winds turn to the N then NE on Sat, but
remain below SCA thresholds. Low pressure potentially tracks across
the waters late Sun-Mon. Seas remain in the 3-4 ft range from Thu-
Thu night with waves of 1-2 ft on the bay. Seas could build above
SCA levels offshore late Friday and early Saturday (especially N)
but winds most likely remain below SCA thresholds in both
southwesterly flow ahead of and northeasterly flow behind the cold
front on Sat.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ650-652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...AJZ/MAM
MARINE...ERI/TMG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
832 PM EDT Wed May 8 2019

MDZ021>024-NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>097-509>525-100045-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Northampton-Hertford-
Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
832 PM EDT Wed May 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-NCZ102-VAZ098>100-100045-
Maryland Beaches-Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-Accomack-
Northampton-
832 PM EDT Wed May 8 2019

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.