Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
403 PM AKST Wed Jan 9 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ Complex weather pattern
across the area with strong outflow winds over the northern inner
channels, and snow over the south. The storm system that is
advancing N over the southern panhandle is the cause for most of
what is happening now, and will happen over the next few days.
First, its approach has increased pressure gradients across the
coast mountains today that produced high outflow winds across the
northern inner channels. Storm force winds have been observed in
Lynn Canal all day and gusts to 60 mph or more have been seen at
Skagway and downtown Juneau and Douglas. The high wind warnings
will now expire later this evening as outflow should continue to
diminish through later tonight.

Meanwhile, the storm system itself is spreading precipitation
across the southern half of the area. It has been arriving in
pulses since last night. The first pulse, which brought snow to
much of the southern panhandle this morning is weakening over the
central panhandle at the current time. Pulse two is just arriving
in the extreme southern panhandle and along with another band of
precipitation is also bringing a stronger shot of warmer air.
Many areas south of Sumner Strait have warmed up above freezing
and changed over to rain around midday which allowed the winter
weather advisory that was up to expire. Winter weather advisories
remain up for zones 25 and 26 as this second pulse moves north and
a further third pulse moves in as well. Snow guidance still shows
a broad range over the event ranging any where from several
inches to only a few inches, so remain with middle of the road
thinking for snow amounts around the area.

As for up toward the NE gulf coast, the question remains on how
far west the precipitation will stretch over the next few days.
An upper trough is dropping SE from western alaska and may stop
the westward progression of the precipitation and push it off to
the NE rather then allow it to get as far west as Yakutat. Still
have some snow in the forecast for Yakutat for Friday but it may
end up being light if they get any at all.

Overall changes were minimal.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/...Active weather pattern
will continue for Southeast Alaska through the medium range
period. Model guidance shows upper ridge over the Gulf Friday
will likely build across the Alaskan interior, forcing out a mid-
level low. Multiple shortwave features will lift into the eastern
Gulf, one right after the other, dragging occluded fronts across
the panhandle through early next week. Warmer air will also be
advected in from the south into the weekend, with snow levels
likely rising and temperatures warming to above freezing across
most areas by Saturday.

Friday, a surface low in the SE Gulf will move north towards the
panhandle. The associated occluded front will continue to bring
rain to the southern panhandle, with snow likely from Angoon
northward. Snow accumulations Friday are still uncertain as
models remain inconsistent with QPF values, but currently
thinking an additional 2 to 6 inches could be possible before the
changeover to rain occurs. The rain/snow line is expected to
gradually move northward late Friday through early Saturday.
Outflow winds should decrease Friday as the pressure gradient
slackens Most areas should then be seeing rain or a mix of rain
and snow by sometime Saturday. Main adjustments to the forecast
were focused on Friday, using a blend of GFS and ECMWF for winds.
Also preferred the GFS and Canadian models for PoP and QPF through
early Saturday. Any minor updates to the latter parts of the
forecast were nudged toward the WPC solution. Forecast confidence
is average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ026.
     High Wind Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM AKST
     Friday for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ019.
     High Wind Warning until 9 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ018.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ018.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST
     Friday for AKZ029.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ012-013.
     Gale Warning for PKZ022-031-032-034.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-033-035-036-041>043.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ051.

&&

EAL/DDH

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1251 AM AKST THU JAN 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG JUNEAU                  58.39N 134.13W
01/09/2019                                      AK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            COMMUNICATIONS MAST BROKEN OFF KTOO BUILDING WEDNESDAY.

&&

PBOYD