Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Juneau, AK

127 
WWAK67 PAJK 090257
RFWAJK

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
657 PM AKDT Thu Aug 8 2019

AKZ018-020-025-090400-
/O.EXP.PAJK.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190809T0300Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-Glacier Bay-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the cities of Skagway, Gustavus, and Juneau
657 PM AKDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

Warm and dry conditions persist through this evening, however the
winds are beginning to lessen across the northern panhandle. The
Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire at 7 pm, however the
fire danger remains elevated. 

Relative humidities will continue to hover in the 20 to 30 percent
range for a few more hours until the cooling temperatures allow 
the humidities to increase. Locally gusty winds 20 to 25 mph will 
also continue in the mid evening. 


$$


For more information from NOAA/National Weather Service Visit...
http://weather.gov/arh/fire  for fire weather information or 
http://weather.gov/Juneau

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
546 AM AKDT Thu Aug 8 2019

.SHORT TERM.../through Friday night/ A series of shortwave trofs
diving SE through the area will help develop a weak upper trof
over the eastern gulf and SE AK by Fri afternoon. At the sfc, a
weak low will form W of Haida Gwaii, with a trof extending NE
across the southern panhandle by late tonight. This trof will
merge with another trof currently across the S-central area that
will drift S through Fri. Forecast adjustments were fairly small
for the most part.

For today, Shortwave moving SE will interact with the low level
trof over S-central AK, which will increase cloud cover and bring
threat for precip across the southern third of the area. Appears
the best lift will be in the Misty Fjords area, so have highest
POPS there. Over the N, offshore flow will mean another very warm
day, but temps aloft are a few degrees cooler, so temps should not
be as warm as they were Wed for most places. Exceptions to this
include the northern outer coast, where better offshore low level
flow will mean somewhat warmer temps than they had Wed. Still some
SCA level N flow over the northern inner channels that should
weaken late in the afternoon. There are some fire weather concerns
now that the fuels have dried out across the N, but not confident
red flag criteria will be completely met, so maintaining the
current SPS for elevated fire concerns.

For tonight, main focus was on the Juneau area, where a weak mtn
wave event is looking more likely. Have put in a strong wind
headline for downtown Juneau and Douglas from 06z tonight to 18z
Fri. Cross barrier flow will be maximized during this time, with
an inversion present just above mtn tops. The most questionable
aspect is the critical level, which varies amongst the models.
Given some cold advection aloft and a deep mixed layer, felt
getting the stronger winds to transport down would be easier than
usual. Other than this, looks like the precip threat will diminish
over the S as shortwave moves past them. Temps in the windier
locations across the N could remain unusually warm tonight,
possibly above 70 degrees, if the wind remains coupled to the
flow aloft. Have bumped up min temps some for those locations,
and later shifts may need to bump them up further.

For Fri and Fri night, looks like it will be a few degrees cooler
across the N with further cooling aloft. The S will see an
increasing threat for precip Fri night as upper trof and sfc low
forms offshore and the two low level trofs merge over the far
southern area.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday as of 10 pm
Wednesday/...An upper level trough will be tracking south over the
Panhandle and eastern Gulf of Alaska at the start of this extended
range forecast period. At that same time, a small upper low will
have formed on another upper level short wave over the Bering
Strait. This feature will move southeast across the interior and
act to depress an upper ridge building in from the northern
Pacific. As the low makes its way over the Gulf, the upper ridge
will build sharply over the western interior on Tuesday morning.
The ridge will then tip over to the east under the influence of a
strong polar jet stream. The ridge will keep this large and strong
polar jet north of the panhandle and aide in maintaining somewhat
quiet weather over Southeast Alaska through the end of this long
range forecast period.

At the surface, a narrow surface ridge will extend north along
165W across the Aleutians, west of Bristol Bay, and the west
coast. To the east, a very broad and weak area of low pressure
will dominate the Gulf. to the west, a strong late summer low will
remain in the southern and central Bering Sea where it will weaken
and fill. As that happens, the surface ridge will re-orient
northeast-southwest and build into a very strong surface high that
will dominate the entire Gulf by Wednesday evening.

Resultant sensible weather will consist of scattered shower
activity across various parts of Southeast Alaska through the
weekend and into next week offering little in the way of relief
from drought conditions. By Tuesday, there is a possibility that
a front may work its way over the top of the surface high and
spread rain across Southeast Alaska from northwest to southeast
through late week, but confidence in that is well below normal.
850mb temperatures will have cooled a bit by the start of this
extended range forecast period. We probably will not be seeing
more 80 degree temps, but daytime highs will still be running
above normal for this time of the year.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from this evening through Friday morning for AKZ025.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013.

&&

RWT/Fritsch

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