High Wind Warning 12, NWS Juneau, AK

388 
WWAK77 PAJK 210251
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
651 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

AKZ025-210600-
/O.EXT.PAJK.HW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190921T0600Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
651 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...Juneau.

* WINDS...Gusts around 60 mph.

* TIMING...Gusty winds will continue and begin to diminish late this
  evening. 

* IMPACTS...Loose objects will be blown around in the wind. 
  Prepare for possible power outages. Travel will be difficult. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring.

&&

$$

991 
WWAK77 PAJK 210555
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
955 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

AKZ025-210700-
/O.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190921T0600Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
955 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

Winds will be diminishing across the area during the late evening
to early overnight hours. May see gusts to 50 mph through
midnight, before winds drop off more quickly overnight.

This will be the final statement on this event.

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
606 AM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...A strong weather front is over the eastern gulf and
panhandle this morning and will continue to affect the region
through the short-term forecast period. Many locations have
already seen moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds of 35mph. The
Cape Suckling buoy (46082) has already seen a peak gust of 51kt,
so the Storm Warning remains in effect for that area early this
morning. Expect both wind and rainfall to increase throughout the
day, with peak conditions in Yakutat now thru mid-day; Sitka mid-
morning thru afternoon; Juneau mid-morning thru early evening;
southern panhandle late afternoon thru evening. The Haines/Skagway
area will see wind gusts increasing to 40 mph by late afternoon,
then continuing through the night as the pressure orientation
becomes more favorable with wind there after the main part of the
front has passed.

Still looking at 2-4 inches of rain with this system through
tonight. Based on how rivers/streams reacted to the last front, some
nearing bankfull is a possibility. The Taiya River has the greatest
likelihood of going above flood stage, so a watch remains in effect
for that area. Otherwise, ponding of water in low lying areas and on
roadways is likely.

The low pressure center assoc with today's front will approach PWS
late tonight, then linger just offshore through Saturday. This low
position will keep the region under SWLY onshore flow. This along
with CAA behind the front, typically is a set up for numerous
showers, so look for wet weather to continue into the weekend.

Models remain in good agreement with the front. They deepened the
low slightly, so confidence in strong wind is high. Increased some
wind gusts and fine-tuned timing of peak winds.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday as of 10 pm Thursday/
The weather will be most active during the first half of the long
range period, then a quieter pattern is becoming more likely
during the latter part. A strong occluded front will move NE into
the area Sun night into Mon. Looking like a significant low will
form and move NNE into the gulf by Mon morning, then curve back
to the W and merge with the original parent low that will be
moving E into the gulf during Mon. This combined low should move
across the gulf and through SE AK Tue. After that, there may be a
couple of weaker systems that might move in toward midweek, then
looking like late week into the weekend will see upper ridging
developing over much of the gulf and SE AK. Used mainly the 12z
GFS to handle things through 00z Tue, then WPC/NBM after that. Did
use 21z SREF to help with POPS through late Sun night.

One of the main model issues is how far E the developing low will
track before it curves back and merges with the parent low. 12z GFS
represented a middle ground compromise, taking low into the
central gulf, with the 12z Canadian further W and the 12z ECMWF
further E. The timing of the occluded front moving onshore was
slowed some. Overall, system looks fairly wet and windy, but with
the main upper level jet sinking S fairly early in the period, a
prolonged heavy rain event is less likely with the front. May get
some heavier precip Mon night into Tue as the combined low moves E
and onshore flow increases.

Precip chances look like they will decrease for the latter half
of the long term as upper ridging takes over across the area.
Still some important amplitude and positional differences to work
out with the placement of the ridge axis, so cannot completely
remove mention of precip further out yet.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon
     for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind through this evening for AKZ021.
     Strong Wind from 4 PM AKDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for AKZ019.
     Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for
     AKZ018.
     Strong Wind from 4 PM AKDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind through this evening for AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ013-031>036-041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-012-021-022-053.

&&

Ferrin/RWT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
900 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 10 NW JUNEAU            58.40N 134.62W
09/20/2019                                      AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SECTIONS OF FENCE DAMAGED AND BLOWN DOWN.

&&

CM