High Wind Warning 11, NWS Juneau, AK

233 
WWAK77 PAJK 180305
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
705 PM AKDT Sat Aug 17 2019

AKZ019-181400-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-190818T1400Z/
Haines Borough and Lynn Canal-
Including the city of Haines
705 PM AKDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT SUNDAY...

* LOCATION...Downtown Haines and the Chilkat Peninsula.

* WINDS...North winds with gusts to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will rapidly increase Saturday evening, before
  slowly subsiding through Sunday morning. Peak winds are expected
  after midnight.
 
* IMPACTS...Loose objects may be blown around. Improperly moored 
  boats may break free. Downed trees and tree limbs are possible 
  and may cause power failures. Travel may be hazardous. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring.

&&

$$

259 
WWAK77 PAJK 180603
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1003 PM AKDT Sat Aug 17 2019
 
AKZ019-180715-
/O.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-190818T1400Z/
Haines Borough and Lynn Canal-
Including the city of Haines
1003 PM AKDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Juneau has cancelled the High
Wind Warning. 

Winds have not come up as much as expected. While wind gusts to 40
mph will be possible, mainly along the Chilkat Peninsula south of
Haines, gusts to warning levels are no longer expected.

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
218 PM AKDT Fri Aug 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...Marine layer clouds over the Gulf are combining with
cloudiness ahead of a short wave moving through the interior
toward the region will continue to lead to increasingly cloudy
conditions over the panhandle. Winds are currently light, but
should begin increasing in most locations overnight as the
pressure gradient increases ahead of the main low that is closing
in on the region from the northwest. The exception to these winds
is that the thermal gradient through Lynn Canal to land will
briefly spur some SCA winds through late afternoon, before
reducing for a bit before the main event arrives.

As the aforementioned low hits the Gulf and strafes the coast
overnight into tomorrow, it will begin to deepen causing
additional strengthening to the pressure gradient. This should
bring winds up to gale force through Lynn Canal and Chatham Strait
Saturday, with a smattering of SCA wind through the other channel
from Frederick Sound and areas north. Gale force winds can also be
anticipated in the coastal waters Saturday and also penetrating
into Cross Sound. Very gusty winds are also anticipated through
the localities of PAGY, PAHN, and PAJN.

Rain will move through the region in mainly a north to south
fashion tonight and through Saturday. Some light showers have
already begun in PAYA and these type of light showers are what can
mainly be expected along the coast as the low passes through. The
main slug of rain will be orographically enhanced along the
coastal mountain range where many locations could easily see a
quarter to a half an inch with a few people perhaps being able to
measure up to the one inch mark. Chances for precip in any given
location should last on the order of about 12 hours from onset,
and after the rain has passed, there should actually be some
clearing behind it.

Winds will diminish through Sunday before finally subsiding below
SCA criteria at all locations during the afternoon, but will hold
on the longest through Lynn Canal, Cross Sound, and the coastal
waters.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday as of 10 pm Thursday/
Amplification of an upper trof will be ongoing over the eastern
gulf and SE AK at start of the period. There remain some important
differences handling shortwave energy within the trof, and
interaction with energy moving by the trof in the southern stream
flow over the eastern Pacific. This has critical impact issues for
the area, mainly with handling a system that might affect the
area around Tue-Wed. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble means suggest the
upper trof axis may be far enough W to allow a potentially strong
storm to move into the SE gulf during Tue-Wed. However, the tricky
part is the further W track of the main low is relying on the
northern and southern streams phasing, which the models typically
struggle with in the mid to long term. At this point, given the
differences, have not introduced the system to the forecast.
Decided to limit any forecast changes to the Sun-Mon periods.

The strong northerly/outflow wind event going on over the N and
central areas should be quieting down as the high over NW
Canada weakens Sun and Sun night. Does look like remnant of the
low across the far S will drift NW Mon as a trof, which could
bring in some precip further N than previously forecasted for
then. After the potential system for Tue-Wed, models differ on
the larger scale pattern evolution, which was another reason to
stick with the current forecast that far out.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Saturday afternoon for AKZ025.
     High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday
     night for AKZ019.
     Strong Wind Saturday afternoon for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-032-043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-031-033-034-041-042-053.

&&

JDR/RWT

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