Gale Warning 75, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
251 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/ Two incoming fronts are the
main story for the short range today. Not much to say about the
first one that is currently moving through the northern panhandle
at the moment. Any precip has been rather light and mostly in the
form of rain as temperatures have warmed into the upper 30s and
low 40s this afternoon. There are some increased winds with this
front but nothing more then 25 kt at this time. Southern
panhandle still expected to stay dry as the southern part of the
front has already sheared apart.

Front number two is the one to watch with strong dynamics, strong
jet support, and more moisture to work with. Temperatures are
expected to remain above freezing for most places overnight so
when the heavier precip starts most sea level areas will see it
start as rain. There are two main exceptions, White Pass (due to
elevation), and Hyder (due to lingering colder air). There is a
winter weather advisory out for White Pass from midnight tonight
to 1 pm tomorrow for 4 to 6 inches of snow and some possible
blowing snow. Hyder is tricky. The clearer skies there should
allow temperatures to cool off this evening before the clouds and
precip move in. Decided to add more snow for there for Sun morning
as well as into Sun night though confidence is moderate. Expect
anywhere from 2 inches to 7 inches through Sun night. Winds will
also be high with this front. Gales expected for the gulf and
many inner channels areas and strong wind gusts to 40 mph for some
land areas.

After the front moves through, SW flow takes over and showers will
be the rule of the day for the entire panhandle. Some cooler air
will also be working in which may be enough to changes some of
those rain showers to snow during the nighttime hours. There is a
small area of instability coming across the gulf on Sun as well.
Decided to add an area of slight chance of thunder into the
forecast in light of this.

Short range guidance in decent agreement though the period. used
mainly Nam and GFS for guidance.

.LONG TERM.../ Monday to Friday / as of 10 pm Friday. Post active
weather front from Sunday will lead to onshore flow and shower
activity expected to continue for Southeast Alaska. A secondary
trough aloft will moving through the area early Tuesday will
provide a second focus of precipitation and and a source to end
showers as well. The end the precipitation over the panhandle will
assisted by a sharp ridge building over the eastern gulf Tuesday
night.

The ridge will be transitory and will be east over British
Columbia by midday Wednesday. A new low that has indications that
it will be moderately strong as it moves into the western gulf
headed towards Kodiak Island late Wednesday. The associated
frontal band is expected to move into Southeast Alaska Thursday.

The flow pattern aloft is expected to southwest to west through
next week. The temperatures are expected to stay in range where
a snow to rain mix in the northern at the lower levels and rain
for the rest of the panhandle. Think that only the higher
elevations should have a chance to accumulate snowfall. The
remainder of the panhandle looks to be a few degrees to warm for
any accumulations of snow. Forecast confidence is average through
the later portion of the forecast.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ019-025.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Sunday morning
     for AKZ022-023.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight AKST tonight to 1 PM AKDT
     Sunday for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Sunday morning
     for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-053.

&&

EAL/Bezenek

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