Gale Warning 50, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
233 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday night through Friday/ Two forecast
concerns are present in the short term. The first is the ongoing
snowfall for the southern Panhandle, which will persist into
early tomorrow morning. Winter weather advisories remain in
effect through 6 AM tomorrow for areas south of Frederick Sound,
with another 2 to 4 inches expected across these areas before the
precipitation is pulled to the south.

As the snowfall ceases and the surface low pressure tracks further
south, strong northerly winds will build over the inner channels
and especially for the northern interior Panhandle. These winds
are expected to peak on Thursday for Skagway, Juneau, Downtown
Haines, and Lynn Canal before diminishing slowly on Friday. Cold
air advection will occur associated with the northerly wind
pattern, which will usher in much cooler temperatures by Friday.

Overall little change was made to the existing short term
forecast. Fridays highs were trended down a few more degrees and
winds were increased to gales earlier this evening within Lynn
Canal. Overall forecast confidence is above average through the
short term.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday to Tuesday / Through Sunday models are in
general agreement that a low will track across the northern gulf,
however they are not in all that solid of agreement on the
timing. A frontal band should be sweeping into the panhandle area
Monday. The overall timing should be close to the previous
thinking as models have only slightly sped up the feature moving
across the gulf.

Longer range solutions hinting at a second low behind the Sunday-
Monday one for early next week and rebuilding Gulf of Alaska ridge
into midweek.

Nudged the later time frames for the forecast towards the WPC
solution which adjusted part of early next weeks forecast for a
low position and the resulting outer coast winds. The Friday to
Sunday forecast only got minimal changes done to the forecast.

Saturday should see strong Small Craft to Gale force winds while
interior passes will be gusting with the possibility of Strong
Wind headlines, before the gradient slackens. Temperatures should
stay on the cooler side until early next week as the Sunday/Monday
system brings some warmer air back northward to the southern and
coastal areas. Will keep watch the Northern panhandle forecast as
it should start as snow, and could be a more significant snow
fall.

Confidence in the longer range forecast is above average lowering
average for the early part of next week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ026>028.
     Strong Wind through Thursday afternoon for AKZ018-019-25.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031>033-041.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-034-035-042-043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ052.

&&

JB/Bezenek

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