Gale Warning 21, NWS Juneau, AK

941 
FZAK51 PAJK 191208
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast FOR Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
308 AM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-200400-
308 AM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low will move into Dixon Entrance Saturday afternoon, weaken 
over the central Panhandle Saturday night, and slide W into the 
eastern gulf Sunday. Strong high pressure will persist across NW 
Canada. 

$$

PKZ011-200400-
Glacier Bay-
308 AM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow and rain. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-200400-
Northern Lynn Canal-
308 AM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 8 ft
subsiding to 5 ft late. Freezing spray in the evening. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-200400-
Southern Lynn Canal-
308 AM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...N wind 45 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. Snow in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-200400-
Icy Strait-
308 AM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 3 ft late. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-200400-
Cross Sound-
308 AM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 
7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 12 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-200400-
Stephens Passage-
308 AM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 40 kt. 
Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-200400-
Northern Chatham Strait-
308 AM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-200400-
Southern Chatham Strait-
308 AM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 5
ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-200400-
Frederick Sound-
308 AM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-200400-
Sumner Strait-
308 AM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-200400-
Clarence Strait-
308 AM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas building
to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming S late. Seas 5 ft. Near ocean
entrances, seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

417 
FZAK51 PAJK 200016
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast FOR Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-201500-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 990 MB Low over eastern Dixon Entrance will rapidly weaken
over the southern Panhandle tonight then dissipate off Cape 
Edgecumbe on Sun. Weak high pressure will remain over the Yukon 
through Sun but will strengthen on Mon. 

$$

PKZ011-201500-
Glacier Bay-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or
less. Snow showers and rain showers late. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-201500-
Northern Lynn Canal-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 8 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Snow
showers. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-201500-
Southern Lynn Canal-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 9 ft 
subsiding to 5 ft late. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-201500-
Icy Strait-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Strongest 
winds near Point Couverden. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft late. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft in 
the morning then 2 ft or less.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind increasing to 15 kt late. Seas building to 
3 ft late. Rain and snow showers. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-201500-
Cross Sound-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing late. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt late. Seas 5 ft.
Rain showers. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. SW swell. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-201500-
Stephens Passage-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft late. Snow showers and rain showers late. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow showers in the
morning. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Rain
and snow showers. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-201500-
Northern Chatham Strait-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Strongest winds
north of Freshwater Bay. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft late. Snow 
showers and rain showers late. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. Snow showers in the morning. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Rain
showers. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-201500-
Southern Chatham Strait-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers late. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Near
ocean entrances, seas 7 ft. Rain showers in the evening. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except
11 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-201500-
Frederick Sound-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft late. Snow showers in the evening. Rain and 
snow showers late. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Rain
showers. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-201500-
Sumner Strait-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing late. Seas 3 ft in the 
evening then 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Rain
showers. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-201500-
Clarence Strait-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 19 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt late. Seas 4 ft. Rain 
showers.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 18 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday/ Upper trof will remain across
interior AK and the Yukon through Sun. A series of shortwave trofs
will move into the area through Sun. First shortwave will move N
across the central area tonight before dissipating by early Sat
morning. A stronger shortwave will move N into the southern
panhandle Sat, then weaken as it moves NE of the southern area Sat
night. A third shortwave trof will move into the northern gulf Sat
night, then move toward the northern panhandle Sun. At the
surface, a trof over the southern panhandle will drift N and
dissipate over the N-central area tonight. A low will move N to
the far southern panhandle by Sat evening, then weaken to a trof
as it continues N into the central panhandle Sat night. this trof
will merge with another trof moving NE across the gulf, and reach
the northern panhandle by Sun evening. 12z GFS was main model of
choice, but most others were very close (except the 12z NAM).

Main forecast concerns will be precip potential/ptype/snow amounts,
and winds. Some light snow is falling over much of the central
panhandle late this afternoon as some weak overrunning enhanced by
mid-level deformation was occurring. This will continue through
the evening hours, then diminish rapidly overnight tonight as
offshore flow increases ahead of the low moving N toward the
southern area. Could see an inch or 2 of snow across the central
area tonight. Precip should be rain across the S tonight,
although there may be a break in the precip during the late
evening. After another break for much of Sat, more rain should
push in late in the day and continue Sat night across the S with
low moving in. Eventually, by Sun afternoon, the combined trof
that forms will spread some precip back across the central and N
areas. Think most of the precip should remain snow from Juneau
northward, while areas to the S will be rain or a mix. Could see a
couple inches of snow sun afternoon over the N-central area.

Strongest winds will remain in Lynn Canal through Sat evening.
Gales should continue there during that time, then lower to SCA
levels Sat night. The central inner channels will see SCA level N
winds diminish by Sat evening. Could see SCA level winds across
the SE gulf tonight as well. Some of the outflow into the NE gulf
could also reach SCA levels through Sat.

Otherwise, lowered temps some across the N through the period, as
colder airmass will take longer to erode away.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday night through Thursday, as of 10 pm
Thursday/ Overall pattern for the long range looking rather warm
and wet for the most part. A ridge over the Pacific NW with a
trough over the Bering Sea keeps SW flow over the gulf and
panhandle for the entire period. Funneling warmer marine air and
wetter conditions into the panhandle. Several short waves are
embedded in the flow but the timing of these short waves remains
rather uncertain at this time.

At the surface, the uncertainty in the upper level short waves
translates into the surface features as well. The first of these
approaches the panhandle from the SW Mon night. Whether this
feature will be in the form of a low or an open trough is
debatable. As is where it will actually track if it is a low
(with suggestions ranging from the central gulf to the Dixon
Entrance area). Decided to leave the depiction of it as a trough
but increase winds in the eastern gulf to 25 kt and have pops
remain at categorical to get a little more of an indication that
something is moving through at that time.

Second feature appears to be actually two fronts that will mainly
focus on the northern gulf coast Wed into Thu. Noticeable
differences on timing and how far east various models tend to take
the precipitation, but general trends favor a wet mid week period
especially for the northern gulf coast and northern panhandle.
There are some indications that this may turn into an atmospheric
river event for the northern gulf coast into Thu, but where
exactly this will set up is not clear. Forecast confidence as a
result is rather poor for mid next week.

Throughout all of the long range the main message remains that the
forecast will be wet and rather warm with most areas likely
melting at least part of their present snow pack. Forecast updates
used mainly the WPC data.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-021-022.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ031>033-036-041>043.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ051-052.

&&

RWT/EAL

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