Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2019
Gale Warning 2, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this gale warning at Jan 20, 2019, 2:05 PM AKST. It was in force for 37 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 20, 2019, 2:05 PM AKST (23:05 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 22, 2019, 3:28 AM AKST
- In force
- 37 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted.
679 FZAK67 PAJK 202305 OFFAJK Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Juneau AK 205 PM AKST Sun Jan 20 2019 Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ398-211715- 205 PM AKST Sun Jan 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A broad area of low pressure will dominate the Gulf of Alaska through Monday morning. A gale force low will approach the panhandle from the southwest Monday night, then stall off the southern outer coast on Tuesday. $$ PKZ310-211715- Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees West- 205 PM AKST Sun Jan 20 2019 ...GALE WARNING MONDAY... .TONIGHT...Winds light increasing to S 15 kt late. Seas 7 ft. S swell. .MON...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. .MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming NW 25 kt late. Seas 12 ft. .TUE...SE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. .TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas 12 ft. SW swell in the evening. .WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. .THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. .FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. $$
3 follow-up statements
741 FZAK67 PAJK 211223 OFFAJK Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Juneau AK 323 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019 Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ398-220630- 323 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A broad area of low pressure will dominate the Gulf of Alaska through Monday morning. A gale force low will approach the panhandle from the southwest Monday night, then stall off the southern outer coast on Tuesday. $$ PKZ310-220630- Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees West- 323 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019 ...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. .TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 12 ft. .TUE...SE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. .TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE 20 kt late. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. .WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. .THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. .FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. $$
959 FZAK67 PAJK 212355 OFFAJK Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Juneau AK 255 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019 Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ398-221800- 255 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A gale force low will approach the panhandle from the southwest Monday night, then stall off the southern outer coast on Tuesday. $$ PKZ310-221800- Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees West- 255 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming NW 35 kt late. Seas 10 ft. .TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. .TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. .WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. .WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Rain late. .THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. .FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. .SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. $$
956 FZAK67 PAJK 221228 OFFAJK Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Juneau AK 328 AM AKST Tue Jan 22 2019 Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ398-230630- 328 AM AKST Tue Jan 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A low just west of Prince of Wales Island will slowly drift east through Tue night weakening as it comes. A ridge of high pressure will build into the eastern gulf Tue night. $$ PKZ310-230630- Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees West- 328 AM AKST Tue Jan 22 2019 .TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. .TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. .WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. .WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE late. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Rain late. .THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. .FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. .SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 20, 5:13 AM AKST, 8 hours 52 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 20, 5:13 AM AKST, 8 hours 52 minutes before
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
513 AM AKST Sun Jan 20 2019
.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday/...Satellite imagery and surface
analysis Sunday morning show the remnants of a low pressure system
spread across the southern and central panhandle. Snow is
currently being reported from Wrangell to Juneau, with rain
continuing to the south. A weak area of surface low pressure
across the eastern gulf will remain Sunday along with mid-level
onshore flow. This should keep light precipitation ongoing
throughout the day. A weak shortwave over the northern gulf will
move east over the northern panhandle Sunday night, helping to
develop more precip across the northern areas through Monday.
Precip type is expected to stay as snow through Sunday night near
and north of the Icy Strait corridor, with snow totals ranging
from 1 to 3 inches. Temperatures will slowly be warming today
across the central panhandle as a southern push makes its way
further north. This will likely drive the freezing line north of
Icy Strait by Monday afternoon.
Upper ridge will build over southeast AK early Monday followed by
strong SW'rly jet. A developing strong low pressure system will
approach the southeastern gulf by Monday evening and move towards
the outer coast late Monday night. Model agreement has improved
with the location and strength of this low, but still uncertainty
remains whether it will move towards the central or southern
coast. Currently leaning towards the more middle ground approach
of the 00z GFS. Likely the southern panhandle will be impacted by
a gale force front and heavy rain Monday night. Winds over the
northern inner channels will likely flip back to the north late
Monday with an increasing northerly gradient. Forecast confidence
is average through the short term period.
.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday as of 10 pm Saturday/...One
word description of the long range forecast: uncertain.
A reason for the uncertainty is split flow at 250 mb jet level.
Have seen major shifts in each model run, including ensembles.
Latest GFS has been showing deepest lows moving into the gulf
(resulting in stronger winds) but also had more breaks in precip
through the week.
What consensus there is indicates above average predictably with
mid level ridging over the eastern AK gulf and panhandle with
troughing to the west over the tip of the Aleutians and N Bering
Sea. Low confidence in the embedded smaller scale waves. The
interaction of these waves moving eastward and riding over the
ridge will determine practical weather. Where these waves will
track, when will they move and and how strong they are depend on
which model and model run you look at. Do expect southerly flow
with very warm air moving into the region which will mix to the
surface (850 mb temps +1-2 standard deviation above normal
resulting in temps as high as 6c) and potential for significant
QPF (most likely in the form of heavy rain) mid week.
Decided to keep with the inherited forecast with some use of
WPC/NBM and stay away from deterministic models until a more
stable pattern becomes established or at least better indication
of superior model initialization. Expect the forecast to change
as we get a better handle on the advancing waves (timing and
strength of winds and precip). However, it is unlikely that any
changes will drop temps enough for a significant snow event.
Forecast confidence is very low.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013.
Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041-042.
&&
DDH/PRB
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/JuneauIn the hours before
Local storm report, Jan 20, 12:14 PM AKST, 1 hour 51 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1214 PM AKST SUN JAN 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0840 AM HEAVY SNOW WRANGELL 56.47N 132.40W
01/20/2019 M5.0 INCH AK CO-OP OBSERVER
NEW SNOW TOTAL 5.0 INCHES AT WRANGELL AIRPORT
&&Local storm report, Jan 20, 12:18 PM AKST, 1 hour 47 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1218 PM AKST SUN JAN 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0850 AM HEAVY SNOW PETERSBURG 56.81N 132.96W
01/20/2019 E0.0 INCH AK CO-OP OBSERVER
NEW SNOWFALL 6.0 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND STILL SNOWING.
&&Local storm report, Jan 20, 12:23 PM AKST, 1 hour 42 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1223 PM AKST SUN JAN 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1215 PM HEAVY SNOW 9 SE PETERSBURG 56.72N 132.79W
01/20/2019 M0.0 INCH AK TRAINED SPOTTER
NEW SNOWFALL 3.0 INCHES TODAY. HAS CHANGED TO RAIN.
&&The office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 3:16 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Jan 20, 3:32 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 20 hr | |
| Jan 20, 8:55 AM AKST | Winter Weather Advisory | AJK | 4 hr | |
| Jan 20, 2:06 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 37 hr | |
| Jan 20, 2:06 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 37 hr | |
| Jan 20, 2:06 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 3 days | |
| Jan 20, 2:06 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 4 days |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.