Gale Warning 19, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
555 AM AKST Thu Jan 10 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ Split flow with confluent
zone across the far N panhandle and S Yukon will continue through
tonight, then northern stream trof will lift NE of the area during
Fri and Fri night. Several southern stream shortwaves will move N
across the area through Fri. Models in fair agreement on this
scenario, although NAM appeared to be too slow to return precip N
today.

Made some adjustments to WWA headlines. Given that zone 25 will
remain in a good overrunning situation with some frontogenetic
enhancement to precip, have upgraded to a winter storm warning.
Think the cold air will hang tough as low level northerly flow
will keep lowest levels cold enough to remain snow through at
least Fri afternoon in the Juneau area. Have also upgraded zone 29
to a warning as they will be in heavier precip rates while low
level flow remains blocked, maintaining a deep isothermal layer
near Hyder through at least Fri afternoon. Issued winter weather
advisories for zone 21 and 24, and extended zone 26 out to 21z
today. Think precip will transition to rain in 26 by late morning
or early afternoon, then transition in zone 24 by late this
afternoon or early this evening. Areas further S should remain all
rain through the period. Have lighter snowfall for zones 18, 19,
20, and 22, with 20 and 22 just remaining below advisory levels.
If the main snow band over the N does shift only slightly NW of
current forecast, zones 20 and 22 would likely need winter weather
advisories.

Strong northerly winds will very slowly decrease through Fri over
the N half of the area. Think gale force winds over much of the N
will drop to SCA levels tonight. Still cold and windy enough near
White pass to keep wind chill advisory going until 18z today.
Locally heavy freezing spray over the N will decrease in intensity
as winds decrease and temps warm slowly.

Looks like the Yakutat area will stay out of the precip from the
systems to their SE. However, upper trof digging over the N gulf
will increase snow threat tonight into Fri morning, although the
most snow may stay to their W. Do not see more than a couple of
inches of snow in Yakutat through Fri.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/...Warmer air will move N
during the weekend as upper ridge builds over W Canada and trof
moves into the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN area. More shortwaves
and occluded fronts will move NE across SE AK during the weekend
into early next week, keeping mild and wet weather going. Models
hint that flow aloft will become more SE by midweek, which would
diminish the precip threat, especially over the N and E areas.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ026.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ024.
     Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 4 PM AKST Friday for
     AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 9 AM AKST Friday for
     AKZ021.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ018.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM AKST Friday for AKZ029.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ013.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-031-032-034.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-033-035-036-041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ043-051.

&&

RWT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1107 AM AKST THU JAN 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 AM     SNOW             PETERSBURG              56.77N 132.86W
01/10/2019  M5.5 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5.5 INCHES BETWEEN 5 PM WEDNESDAY AND 4 AM THURSDAY. 10
            INCHES ON THE GROUND. CURRENTLY SNOWING AND 29 DEGREES.

0700 AM     SNOW             EDNA BAY                55.95N 133.65W
01/10/2019  M6.8 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6.8 INCHES FOR A STORM TOTAL. SNOW CHANGED TO RAIN WED
            EVENING.

0930 AM     SNOW             PETERSBURG              56.77N 132.86W
01/10/2019  E10.0 INCH                          AK   PUBLIC

            SECOND HAND REPORT OF 10 INCHES IN PETERSBURG.

0930 AM     SNOW             14 S PETERSBURG         56.57N 132.86W
01/10/2019  E12.0 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 INCHES ON SOUTHERN MITKOF ISLAND.

1000 AM     SNOW             PETERSBURG              56.77N 132.86W
01/10/2019  M10.5 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT PETERSBURG AIRPORT.

1000 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST HYDER                   55.98N 130.06W
01/10/2019  M5.00 MPH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

1000 AM     SNOW             WRANGELL                56.36N 132.27W
01/10/2019  M7.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL AT WRANGELL AIRPORT. CURRENTLY CHANGING TO
            RAIN.

&&

EAL

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