Winter Storm Warning 43, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
347 PM AKST Thu Dec 5 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will move north along the west coast this weekend
bringing a mixture of snow, freezing rain, strong winds and
blowing snow. Cold temperatures will persist tonight across
Interior tonight; however, a warming trend is expected for the
weekend as southerly flow develops over the Alaska Range for the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Overall the models are in decent agreement in the short term with
the synoptic scale pattern; however there are still differences
with the low that will north along the west coast this weekend,
both in terms of the strength and the placement of the low moving
north along the west coast.

Central and Eastern Interior: High pressure will persist across
the Interior tonight. This should help to keep skies mostly clear
around the Interior tonight. The clear skies will keep
temperatures in the -20 to -40 range overnight. Some ice fog is
expected across the Yukon Flats where the temperatures will be the
coldest. Cloud cover will increase across the Interior early
Friday morning. The flow aloft over the Interior will become more
southerly for the weekend. This will allow temperatures south of
the Yukon River to warn into the 20s by Sunday. Southerly gap
winds will develop in the Alaska Range on Friday. By Saturday we
expect wind gusts around 50 mph in the passes of the Alaska Range
which will persist into Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior: The west coast will receive a
quick one-two punch Friday into the weekend. A front associated
with a low in the western Bering will push into the Yukon Delta
Friday evening and will continue to move north along the coast
Saturday. A 962 mb low will move into Bristol Bay Friday evening.
By Saturday morning this low will be over Nunivak Island. During
the day the low will track towards St. Lawrence Island; however,
there are still some differences in the exact track. The NAM has
the low passing over St Lawrence Island Saturday afternoon while
the GFS tracks the low a two hundred miles to the south of St.
Lawrence Island. These systems are expected to bring expected to
snow and stronger winds on Friday and Saturday for fro areas south
of the Seward Peninsula and Saturday and early Sunday for areas
from the Seward Peninsula north. Warmer air will move in aloft
over the Yukon Delta tomorrow evening. This will cause snow to
change over to freezing rain There is still some uncertainty in
the exact placement of the heaviest snow minor differences in the
track will impact where the heaviest snow will fall. At this time
the heaviest snow is expected to fall in and near the Nulato Hills
while the greatest risk for freezing rain and sleet remains in
the Lower YK Delta. At this time 4 to 8 inches of snow is expected
in the Nulato Hills with 2 to 4 inches expected elsewhere. Ice
accumulations of a glaze to 5 hundredths of an inch are expected
in the Yukon Delta Friday evening and Saturday. As the front moves
north on Friday, south to southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts
to around 55 mph are expected to develop along the Norton Sound
Coast and over St Lawrence Island, with the winds expected to
continue into Saturday. Another system looks to move north along
the coast on Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Temperatures will remain
seasonably cold for Friday, A warming trend will begin on Saturday
as low pressure moves north along the West Coast. Southerly flow
will support further warming into early next week. The strong
southerly flow will cause strong strong southerly gap winds to
develop in Alaska Range passes late Saturday into Sunday. A low
moving north over the southern Chukchi Sea will cause strong
easterly winds to develop along the Arctic Coast Saturday evening.
These winds will continue into early Sunday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...At this time the track of
the storm system Friday and Saturday is expected to produce
mostly offshore winds or wind directions over a relatively short
fetch of open water which will limit the threat for coastal
flooding, high surf and sea ice pushes onto shore. Coastal
residents should however continue to monitor this situation for
the latest forecasts on the storm and be prepared to take actions
to protect property near the shore should the track of the storm
change.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ245.
&&

DEC 19