Winter Storm Warning 23, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
513 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A front will bring precipitation to the to the west coast and the
western Interior today. This, along with strong gap winds in
Alaska and Brooks Ranges will be the main forecast challenge for
the day. Elsewhere, well above normal temperatures will continue
today for the much of the central and eastern Interior. The models
generally initialize well and are in good agreement with the
overall synoptic scale pattern out through Tuesday.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 500 dam low is currently situated over St.
Lawrence Island while a strong ridge stretches along the Canadian
Border into the Beaufort Sea. The result of the two aforementioned
features is southerly flow over much of the forecast area. The low
over St. Lawrence Island will move to the northwest today, and
will reach Wrangel Island by Monday morning where will persist
into Wednesday. The ridge will push west into the central Bering
Sea Tuesday night.

Central and Eastern Interior: Strong winds will be the main issue
today in the southern part of the Interior. A trough of low
pressure on the north side of the Alaska Range will keep strong
southerly gap winds in place this morning in the passes of the
Alaska Range. The pressure gradient will slack off a bit this
afternoon as the trough moves to the north. This will cause the
gap winds to slightly diminish for a bit during the afternoon.
Winds will pick up again this evening as a front moves north over
the range with the gusty winds continuing into early Monday.
Elsewhere in the Interior today, temperatures will be above normal
again today. Fairbanks was with one degree of the record high
temperature on both Friday and Saturday. We expect that Fairbanks
will be close to the record high again today with highs in the 40s
(this is close to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year).
A front will move north across the Interior this evening into
early Monday. From Fairbanks south to just north of the Alaska
Range we expect that the downslope winds will limit the
precipitation associated with the front from making it to the
ground. From just north of Fairbanks to the Yukon River, the
precipitation is expected to be a mixture of rain and snow. North
of the Yukon River snow is expected with 2 to 5 inches of snowfall
expected (the heaviest snow is expected closer to the Brooks
Range).

West Coast and Western Interior: A front is currently bringing
snowfall to the west coast. This front will push into the western
Interior this afternoon. This front will bring 2 to 7 inches of
snow to the western Interior through, with the higher amounts
expected in the preferred upslope regions. Snowfall will taper
off early Monday. A second front will bring another round of
snowfall to the western Interior Monday night. A 987 mb surface
low that is currently over the northern Seward Peninsula will move
north into the Chukchi Sea today. As the low moves north it will
cause the winds along the Chukchi Sea coast to increase today
resulting in blowing snow along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range: The main issue during the day today
will be winds in the eastern Brooks Range. A tight pressure
gradient across the range will bring southerly gap winds (along
with blowing snow) to the north side of the eastern Brooks
Range. The winds in the Brooks Range will die down this evening. A
front A front will bring snowfall to the Brooks Range and the
Chuckchi Sea coast tonight into early Monday. In the Brooks range
we expect 3 to 7 inches of snow with this system, with the
heaviest amounts expected to the west of the Dalton Highway. One
to three inches of snow is expected along the Chukchi Sea coast
with this front as well. Monday morning a low will spin up over
the Arctic Plain south of Nuiqsut. Initially, when the low forms
it will cause the strong southerly gap winds to develop again in
the eastern Brooks Range. The low quickly moves to the north, with
high pressure building in behind it. By Monday afternoon, the low
will be north of Prudhoe Bay. The tight pressure gradient over
the Beaufort Sea coast Monday afternoon will result in the
development of gusty east to southeasterly winds along the coast.
Near Barter Island winds could gust as high as 45 mph. I opted to
issue a Winter Storm Watch for zone 204 in anticipation of near
blizzard conditions as the winds increase Monday afternoon. Winds
should die down Monday night as the low moves north and high
pressure build in over the coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ225.

High Wind Warning for AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ215-
AKZ216-AKZ217.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

MAR 19