Wind Chill Advisory 8, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
155 AM AKST Fri Jan 11 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A couple more days of cold before a significant warm up over
portions of northern Alaska.

An inverted trough over the central interior continues to weaken
with light snow and clouds diminishing through the day today as
the trough moves to the northeast. As the snow and cloud cover
diminish temperatures will struggle to reach 30 below today in
Fairbanks and much of the interior. Temperatures will drop into
the 40s below over much of the interior and fall into the 50s
below in the coldest spots. Temperatures will remain in the 30s
below in the interior where cloud cover remains.

A pressure gradient between a 1045 mb high pressure system along
80N and an inverted low pressure trough in the interior and a low
pressure system moving north through the Aleutians will continue
to produce very low wind chill values on the North Slope and
Brooks Range today but will begin to improve tonight as winds
diminish. A trough of low pressure develops along the northern
slopes of the Alaska Range as upper level winds turn southerly
and begin to develop a lee side trough on Saturday. Will need to
monitor the Delta Junction area for wind chill values Saturday and
Saturday night as a weak Tanana Valley Jet develops and cold air
pours out of the upper Tanana Valley into the area.

Southerly winds aloft continue to increase on Sunday with gap
winds through the Alaska Range passes and a weak chinook
developing over the southern portions of the central and eastern
interior that will bring and end to the cold snap. Expect strong
inversions over valley locations in the interior with cold air
remaining trapped in the valleys and warmer air moving in aloft.
Computer models continues to indicate a strong mountain wave
developing over the northern slopes of the Alaska Range on Monday
as a front wrapping around a low in the Bering Sea approaches the
Alaska Range from the south. The northern slopes of the Alaska
Range will likely need wind headlines Sunday night and Monday.
Continue to monitor.

Clouds, winds and snow are expected to move north over the West
Coast and Western Interior Sunday and Monday with a front moving
north along the coast rotates around a strong low pressure system
moving into the southern Bering Sea. The lower YK Delta, Seward
Peninsula, and St Lawrence Island are currently in the cross hairs
for snow and blowing snow Sunday night and Monday and will likely
need winter weather headlines, however significant differences on
the low track, and strength remain in the computer models.
Continue to monitor.

The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis.
The models display significant spread as early as Saturday morning
on the position, track and strength of a low pressure system
moving north out of the northern Pacific and into the Southern
Bering Sea Saturday night and Sunday. Continue to monitor.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ207.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ217-AKZ218.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CCC JAN 19