Wind Chill Advisory 13, NWS Fairbanks, AK

774 
WWAK41 PAFG 302317
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
217 PM AKST Wed Jan 30 2019

AKZ204-310030-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190131T0700Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
217 PM AKST Wed Jan 30 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds are now decreasing. Visibility is expected to remain above
one half mile. 


$$

AKZ203-310030-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-190131T2200Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
217 PM AKST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminished and wind chills have become less severe.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
409 PM AKST Tue Jan 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Northern Alaska is now phasing into a colder and drier pattern.
A cold front from Inuvik to the the Yukon Delta will push
southeast over the next day bringing an end to the snow, and
ushering in much colder air over the North Slope and Eastern
Interior which will settle in by Thu and then persist into the
weekend. The West Coast will remain closer to normal in terms of
temperatures.

Aloft...
A long wave ridge over NW Canada and Mainland Alaska is splitting
apart now as a short wave trough drops south along the Alcan
Border over the next several days. The ridge will move over
Western Alaska over the next several days and then persist over
into next week. The ridge will weaken next week as severals
strong short waves make their way out of the deep long wave over
the Bering Sea and cut into the ridge, but there seems to be model
disagreement as to timing and strength.

A short wave trough from Deadhorse to Fairbanks to the Yukon
Delta will move to Inuvik to Northway by 3pm Wed then continuing
east. This will push the cold front SE.

A second trough over the high Arctic will move to the NE Alaska
by 3am Thu, over the SE INterior by 3pm Thu, and to near Yakutat
by 3am Fri. This type of feature has a propensity to develop a
"Yakutat Low" at the surface which can be a very persistent
feature, and often cause the long wave to linger longer than
models would indicate and cause cold air to remain over the
Eastern Interior longer than models might indicate.

Surface...
A 1030 mb high pressure over the Chukchi Sea will strengthen
through Thu. A 1010 mb low 300 NM north of Prudhoe Bay will move
to 300 NM north of Demarcation Point as a 1019 mb low by 3pm Wed,
and then weaken in place through Thu. A low pressure trough
from the low to Prudhoe Bay will move to Demarcation Point by 3am
Wed, then continue east. West winds 20g30kt along this trough will
cause blowing snow. As this feature moves past Barter Island
tonight winds will increase to 40 mph with blizzard conditions.

An Arctic cold front from the low to Inuvik to Old Crow to the
Yukon Delta will move to Eagle to Fairbanks to the Yukon Delta by
3am Wed, to Northway to the Yukon Delta by 3pm Wed, to Beaver
Creek to the Yukon Delta by 3ma Thu, and then south of the Alaska
Range. Snow along the front will drop another 1-3 inches through
tonight over the SE interior, heaviest along the Alaska Range.
Expect north winds 15 mph with the front, then clearing and
cooling north of the front. North winds will gust to 40 mph
through passes of the Brooks Range and Alaska Range, causing low
vsby in blowing snow in passes.

A very strong low south of Shemya will move into the southwest
Bering Sea today. Another strong low will move to the southwest
Bering Sea on Thursday. This will keep east winds across the
Bering. A front stretching east from the second low will move to
the northeast Bering Sea Fri and bring increasing east winds to
most of northern AK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At h500 mb at 12Z, models all initialize 20-30m too low on
heights at Fairbanks. McGrath and Yakutat, indicating the the
ridge is a bit stronger than models indicate. This stronger ridge
will likely slow short wave moving through the ridge just
slightly. The NAM moves this short wave south along the Alcan
Border slightly faster and deeper than the GFS, ECMF and Canadian.
Due to the stronger than initialized ridge, favor slower and
weaken GFS and ECMF solution over the NAM.

Models verify well at the surface analysis at 18z, with the
exception of the low south of Shemya which is significantly deeper
than any models initialize it. For Northern Alaska it looks like
models have finally caught up with the strength of the surface low
and high along and north of the North Slope.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ218-AKZ220-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB JAN 19