Wind Advisory 53, NWS Fairbanks, AK

028 
WWAK73 PAFG 150850
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1150 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

AKZ226-151000-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0053.000000T0000Z-191215T0900Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1150 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds are now slowly decreasing. 

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
613 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Highlights are:
Most of Northern Alaska will remain warmer and drier than normal
into next week, with a cooling trend towards normal in the second
half of next week. The exception will be the West Coast from the
Bering Strait south where snow will occur at times now through
Sun. Southeast winds 20-30 kt over Western Capes will become east
15-25 kt along most of the West Coast today and continue into Sun.
East winds will gust to 40 mph near Delta Junction today,
decrease slightly tonight, then increase to 40 mph again on Sun
and continue into Mon. South winds gusting to 40 mph will develop
through Alaska Range Passes today, decrease tonight, then increase
again Sun into Mon. East winds will increase to gusts to 40 mph
at Barter Island on Mon and cause blowing snow there Mon.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a high amplitude ridge over
Eastern Alaska and Western Canada and a high amplitude trough
over the Bering Sea and North Central Pacific. This pattern will
persist through the weekend, with the trough building east across
the Gulf of Alaska early next week and undercutting the ridge,
with the ridge pushing north of Alaska late next week. This means
that the southerly flow now occuring along the West Coast of
Alaska will continue through tonight, and then become more
southeast on Sun. This will allow snow that is now occuring along
the West Coast to continue today and tonight, and then taper off
Sun into Mon. This also means that the Interior and North Slope of
Alaska will remain dry under the ridge with above normal temps
and strong inversions with hills and windy areas in the 20s today
and Sun. There will be a cooling towards normal in the second half
of next week as the ridge aloft build north.

Surface...
A 993 mb low near Wrangel Island will move north today. A low
pressure trough stretching east from this low to just north of
Barter Island will move along the Arctic Coast of Alaska by 3pm
Sat, and then move to just south of Barter Island to Point Lay by
3am Sun and then persist into Mon. Flow along the Arctic Coast is
now southwest blowing offshore towards the trough and keeping the
Arctic Coast mainly clear. As the trough moves back onshore this
afternoon/evening the low level winds will turn east and bring
stratus and fog back to the Arctic Coast.

High pressure well north of the Arctic Coast will build south
tonight through Mon. This will cause the gradient to increase Sun
through Mon, with east winds increasing to 20-30kt by Mon, with
gusts to 40 mph and blowing snow possible in zones 203 and 204
late Mon.

A 990 mb low 50 NM west of Gambell will move to 150 NM west of
Point Lay as a 1002 mb low by 3am Sun, then continue moving north.
A weather front stretching from this low to the YK Delta will move
to the Bering Strait to the YK Delta by 3pm Sat, and then
remaining  into Sun, and then drifting west to Gambell to St Paul
by Mon. Expect snow along this front through Mon, which means
that zones 211, 213 and 214 will have snow today, then zones 213
and 214 tonight and Mon, and then moving west to just zones 214 by
Sun night. Expect 1-3 inches of snow in these zones.

A strong low in the southeast Bering Sea will move into Bristol
Bay Sun and then weaken into Mon. This will cause weak southerly
chinook winds across the Alaska Range today this this evening,
then turn decreasing and turning SE tonight. This will cause east
winds gusting to 40 mph from Delta Junction to Nenana today, and
south winds gusting 40 mph through Alaska range Passes today.
Winds in both areas will decrease tonight as flow aloft turns SE
and weakens.

As this low moves into Bristol Bay Sun, this will tighten the
gradient across the West Coast and Interior, with east winds 15-25
kt along the West Coast, and 15 mph across the Interior, with
gusts to 40 mph again developing near Delta Junction.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft and show similar solutions through
Mon. Precipitation has slight differences in location and timing,
and we will use a blend of the NAM/GFS/ECMF for precip through
Mon, with zones 211 213 and 214 having precip likely from today
into Sun, with a chance of less at other times and in other areas
of the West Coast. At the surface models verify well at 06Z with
the exception of the trough just north of the Arctic Coast that has
lower pressure than models indicate at 06Z. Expect trough will
remain a bit deeper than models indicate Sat and Sat night, partly
due to the , and that winds will be 3 kt stronger than models
indicate.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ225.

&&

JB DEC 19