Wind Advisory 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

089 
WWAK73 PAFG 032254
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
154 PM AKST Sun Feb 3 2019

AKZ226-040000-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-190204T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
154 PM AKST Sun Feb 3 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Wind
Advisory.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
238 PM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...Strong weather system to the west has pushed a weather
front to the West Coast with Blizzard conditions being reported
in several locations. Front will continue to work its way east
tonight with blizzard conditions ending, but stalls over the
Western and Central Interior as it bumps into high pressure over
the Eastern Interior and will bring heavy snow to the area.
Heaviest snow will fall in the area east of a line from Ambler to
McGrath, north and west of the Elliott Highway and west of the
Dalton Highway. Strong winds continue in the Brooks Range, and
Tanana Valley Jet will continue to bring strong winds to the Delta
Junction area through Sunday afternoon.

Models...02/12Z solutions continue the trend of good agreement
short term, but diverge significantly in the extended periods.
Solutions continue to have trouble defining the shortwaves moving
through the flow up the western flank of the ridge, and most of
the issue is timing them. For the short term will lean mostly on
the NAMDNG solution with a nudge from the SREF for the
precipitation again today. Going with the NAMDNG for the winds as
well. Surface solutions initialized well against the 02/18Z
surface with the major features about 4 mb too low across the
board. Warming temperatures will require quite a bit of work with
the lows Sunday most likely at midnight tonight.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over mainland Alaska will slowly
lean over today as shortwaves to the west move up the western
flank of the ridge. Ridge axis lies over 140W in the Arctic to
Nuiqsut to Minchumina to the southern tip of Kodiak Island this
afternoon and will move to lie over the Eastern Beaufort Sea to
Dawson YT then southwest over the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday
morning. A 498 dam low has move to the Gulf of Anadyr and a
shortwave associated with it lies from the low over St Lawrence
Island and the Lower Yukon Delta. The shortwave moves to lie over
the Central Arctic then south over Deadhorse to Manley Hot Springs
as it push into and over the ridge. A second shortwave will move
over St lawrence Island and the southwest coast by Sunday morning,
and by Sunday afternoon it will move to lie from a 516 dam low
that develops over the Western Brooks Range over Indian Mountain
to McGrath as it pushes east into the ridge. The low will continue
northeast to MacKenzie Bay by Monday morning at 514 dam with the
shortwave extending southwest over the Fortymile Country. Ridging
build over the Bering Sea Sunday and will rotate northeast over
the Southwest mainland and Seward Peninsula by Monday afternoon.
At 850 hpa...The -10C isotherm lies along the Upper Yukon River to
Howard Pass, then east over the Brooks Range as a pocket of cold
air persists along the south slopes of the Brooks Range. The -10
Isotherm wobbles around a bit, but generally will lie from Eagle
to the Bering Strait through mid week.

Surface...1044 mb high has anchored in over the Central Yukon
Territory with a 1035 mb high in the Upper Yukon Flats. A 968 mb
stacked low has moved to the western Gulf of Anadyr and front has
moves to lie from southwest Chukchi Sea to Tin City to Cape
Romanzof to Dutch Harbor. Strong pressure gradients have developed
in the Upper Tanana Valley, the Western Alaska Range, and the
Brooks Range as troughing has developed on the leeside of the
Ranges. By Sunday morning the low moves to the Southwest Arctic at
995 mb with the front pushing north in the Arctic, but stalling
over the central part of the state. A second front will move to
the West Coast and bring some enhancement of the snow in the
Interior on Sunday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Snow spreading to the Northwest
Coast this evening, then east across the Arctic. This will tighten
the pressure gradient across the Brooks Range with the high
staying in the Upper Yukon Flats, so strong gusty winds will
continue and increase in strength for a few hours tonight. Snow
moving across the area will produce blowing and drifting snow
problems that will impact travel, especially along the Dalton
Highway. Winds diminishing Sunday night.

West Coast and Western Interior...Strong front is bringing
Blizzard conditions to a few areas, with strong winds, snow, and
blowing snow in most areas today. Front will move pretty rapidly
inland, then stall around the Middle Yukon Valley with heavy snow
developing and continuing into Monday morning before it tapers
off. Warning or Advisories for all zones so check them out for
further details.

Central and Eastern Interior...Increasing clouds, with high
pressure anchored to the east, the front to the west will stall
out in the central part of the state with heavy snow generally
west of Manley Hot Springs, north of the Elliott Highway, and
from the Dalton Highway west. Heavy snow will impact travel along
the Dalton Highway, and may impact travel on the Elliott Highway.
Heaviest snowfall expected in the Bettles, Coldfoot, and Wiseman
areas and along the Koyukuk River to Hughes. See the Winter Storm
Warnings for details. Strong gusty winds continue in the Delta
Junction area as the Tanana Valley Jet has set up with the cold
high pressure over the Yukon Territory but winds will diminish
Sunday evening. Some gap winds in the Alaska Range with south
winds gusting to around 50 mph near Healy, and along the
Richardson Highway winds will be gusting to around 45 mph south
of Black Rapids.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Several fronts will move
across the area through the week. Short lived clearing skies
Monday as another front will move northeast into the state
bringing snow to the Interior south of the Yukon River, and most
of the West Coast Tuesday afternoon. A short break Wednesday,
with yet another front spreading snow northeast over the West
Coast and into the Interior late Wednesday. Expect a mix of rain
and snow to the Lower Yukon Delta. Periods of light snow or
flurries in the Arctic with some occasional breaks in the clouds.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ211-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-
AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ221.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ212-
AKZ220-AKZ222.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ230.

&&

SDB FEB 19