Wind Advisory 34, NWS Fairbanks, AK

255 
WWAK73 PAFG 172046
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1246 PM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2019

AKZ224-181645-
/O.EXB.PAFG.WI.Y.0034.190918T1400Z-190919T0800Z/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, 
Chicken, and Boundary
1246 PM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN DOT LAKE AND TOK...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 6 AM Wednesday to midnight AKDT
Wednesday night. 

* LOCATION...along the Alaska Highway Between Dot Lake and Tok.
 
* WINDS...Southwest 30 mph gusting to 40 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase Wednesday morning and diminish 
  Wednesday afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

AKZ226-181645-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0034.190918T1200Z-190919T0000Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1246 PM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...In Passes of the Alaska Range.

* WINDS...South 30 mph gusting to 55 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase early Wednesday morning and 
  diminish Wednesday afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

501 
WWAK73 PAFG 181227
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
427 AM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2019

AKZ224-190000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0034.190918T1400Z-190919T0800Z/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, 
Chicken, and Boundary
427 AM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT 
BETWEEN DOT LAKE AND TOK...

* LOCATION...Along the Alaska Highway Between Dot Lake and Tok.

* WINDS...Southwest 30 mph gusting to 40 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will diminish late this evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

AKZ226-190000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-190919T0000Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
427 AM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...Near Alaska Range Passes.

* WINDS...South 30 mph gusting to 55 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will diminish later this afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

443 
WWAK73 PAFG 182337
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
337 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2019

AKZ226-190045-
/O.EXP.PAFG.WI.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-190919T0000Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
337 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON...

Winds are now decreasing. South winds are still gusting to 40 mph
in passes but will be decreasing this evening. 

$$

AKZ224-190800-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-190919T0800Z/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, 
Chicken, and Boundary
337 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT 
BETWEEN DOT LAKE AND TOK...

* LOCATION...Along the Alaska Highway Between Dot Lake and Tok.

* WINDS...Southwest 30 mph gusting to 40 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will diminish about midnight tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

236 
WWAK73 PAFG 190529
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
929 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2019

AKZ224-190630-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-190919T0800Z/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, 
Chicken, and Boundary
929 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 


$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
215 PM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Significant snow fall now occuring in the Central and Eastern Brooks
Range will spread south over the Northern Interior above 2000 ft,
which will affect Dalton Highway Summits north of the Yukon
River. Expect 4-6 inches of snow in the Central and Northeast
Brooks Range through 4pm Tue, and 4-6 inches above 2000 feet in
the Northern Interior from midnight tonight through midnight Tue
night. In the Alaska Range and over the Taylor Highway expect
several inches of snow above 3500 feet tonight and through Tue.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a trough over Mainland Alaska, a
ridge over the Eastern Bering Sea, and a second trough over the
Western Bering Sea. The ridge and second trough move east with the
ridge moving over the Gulf of Alaska and S Central Alaska by 4pm
Tue. By 4pm Wed the ridge will move to be centered over Western
Canada and SE Alaska, with the two troughs merging into one very
broad long wave trough over Mainland Alaska and the Bering Sea
which will persist into the weekend.

For Nrn Alaska this will mean a change to much cooler temperatures
for the North Slope and West Coast, and dropping to near normal
in the Interior. This will bring mixed rain and snow to the North
Slope and West Coast of Alaska, while the Interior has high
elevation snow with snow level lowering through the weekend.

A short wave trough that lies from Fort Yukon to Delta Junction
will move to Old Crow to Northway by 10pm Mon, then continue east
of the Alcan Border. There are showers along this trough that will
spread east with the trough. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms this evening SE of Tok as a result of this trough.

A low aloft over Atqasuk will move over Anaktuvuk Pass by 4am
Tue, over Coldfoot by 4pm Tue, to near Barter Island by 4am Wed,
then moving north of Barter Island on Wed. There will be
significant preciptiation with this feature, with another 4-6
inches of snow in the Central Brooks Range through 4pm Tue, and
4-6 inches of snow above 2000 feet in the Northern Interior from
midnight tonight through midnight Tue night. Over the Northern
Interior below 2000 feet, expect mixed rain and snow with little
accumulation. A short wave trough extending south from this low to
McGrath will move to Ambler to Denali by 4am Tue, to Bettles to
Eagle to Dawson by 4pm Tue, then dissipating. There will be
showers along this trough moving east with the trough. Could see
several inches of snow in the Alaska Range and Interior above 3500
feet, which may affect the highest points on the Denali Park
road, Eagle Summit on the Steese Highway and the Taylor Highway
tonight and Tue.

Surface...
A 1003 MB low 100 NM north of Barter Island will move to near
Umiat as a 1008 MB low by 4am Tue, then to near Coldfoot as a 1006
mb low by 4pm Tue, then near Barter Island as a 1005 mb low b 4am
Wed, and 100 NM North of Barter Island as a 1004 mb low by 4pm
Wed. Will see winds 20 kts around this low center through
tonight, then decreasing. A broad area of precipitation will
track with this low center.

An Arctic front stretching from this low to Old Crow to Gambell
will move to Arctic Village to Tanana to Bethel by 4am Tue, to
Arctic Village to Coldfoot to Denali by 4pm Tue, and to Barter
Island to Old Crow to Bethel by 4am Wed, then quasi-stationary.
Will see snow level drop to 2000 ft close to the Brooks Range, and
to 3500 feet over the Southern Interior along and west of this
front. Surface temperatures will fall into the 40s northwest of
this front. There are N-NE winds 15-25kt along and just north of
the front over the Brooks range and West Coast will spread south
along the West Coast with the front tonight, but little wind will
move inland with the front.

A low south of Shemya will move into the southeast Bering Sea as a
988 MB low by 4pm Tue, to Nunivak Island as a 985 mb low by 4am
Wed, and to Shageluk as a 990 mb low by 4pm Wed, and to near
Barter Island as a 1001 mb low by 4pm Thu. A front stretching east
of this low will move to Bethel to Denali to Northway by 4am Wed,
to Shageluk to Tanana to Eagle by 4pm Wed, then continuing east.
Expect widespread rain along the front to spread over the
southern Interior Wed. There will be a brief downslope event over
the SE INterior with south winds 30g45 mph along the Alaska Range
Wed morning, before winds turn west and rain moves in on Wed PM.
Most of the Interior will get rain from this system Wed-Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z, and show similar solutions
through 4pm Wed. After that time, the ECMF moves the NW Alaska low
to the NE more quickly than the NAM/GFS/Canadian. At this time,
favor the GFS for Thu night and Fri.

with precipitation, models in general agreement through Wed on
areal coverage and amounts, with fair agreement between the NAM
and GFS through 4pm Thu. Will use a blend of the NAM and GFS for
precipitation areal coverage and amounts.

At the surface at 15Z, all models verify 3-4 MB too weak on the
surface low near Barter Island, and also 3-4 mb too weak on the
low in the northern Gulf of AK. Expect winds to be 3-5 kt stronger
than models indicate over zones 203 204 through tonight as a
result. Otherwise, models verify well and show similar solutions
through 4pm Wed. After 4pm Wed, the ECMF moves surface lows to the
NE faster than other models. At this point will go with the GFS
solution after 4pm Wed to be consistent with the pattern aloft.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
NW-SW winds 15-25 kt over the southern Chukchi Sea Thu into Sat could
cause elevated surf along zone 207 Thu into Sat.

Fire Weather...
Min RH looks to remain above 40% for the remainder of the week.
Expect highs in the 40s and 50s this week, with generally cooler
and wetter conditions through the week. May see southerly winds 30
gust to 45 mph along the Alaska Range Passes Tue night and Wed.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
All rivers continue to remain steady or falling slowly.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ206.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218-AKZ219.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JB SEP 19