Wind Advisory 27, NWS Fairbanks, AK

677 
WWAK73 PAFG 161242
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
442 AM AKDT Fri Aug 16 2019

AKZ218-170800-
/O.EXA.PAFG.WI.Y.0027.190816T1400Z-190817T0800Z/
Southeastern Brooks Range-
Including Arctic Village, Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp, 
and Iniakuk Lake
442 AM AKDT Fri Aug 16 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect until midnight AKDT tonight. 

* LOCATION...near Passes. 

* WINDS...North gusting to 40 mph.

* TIMING...Strong winds will develop this afternoon and continue
  into this evening.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Recent rainfall will cause the ground to soften and
trees may be blown down. Secure loose objects which may be blown
about by the wind.

&&

$$

AKZ219-170800-
/O.EXA.PAFG.WI.Y.0027.190816T1400Z-190817T0800Z/
Upper Koyukuk Valley-
Including Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain, 
and Gobblers Knob
442 AM AKDT Fri Aug 16 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect until midnight AKDT tonight. 

* LOCATION...Summits of the Dalton Highway.

* WINDS...gusting to 40 mph.

* TIMING...Strong winds will develop this afternoon and continue 
  through this evening. 
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Recent rainfall will cause the ground to soften and
trees may be blown down. Secure loose objects which may be blown
about by the wind.

&&

$$

AKZ220-170800-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0027.190816T1400Z-190817T0800Z/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
Including Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle, Stevens Village, 
Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek, Circle Hot Springs, 
Eagle Summit, and Twelvemile Summit
442 AM AKDT Fri Aug 16 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...Summits along the Steese highway.

* WINDS...gusting to 40 mph.

* TIMING...Strong winds will develop this afternoon and continue
  through this evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Recent rainfall will cause the ground to soften and
trees may be blown down. Secure loose objects which may be blown
about by the wind.

&&

$$

AKZ222-170800-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0027.190816T1400Z-190817T0800Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester, 
North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika, 
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
442 AM AKDT Fri Aug 16 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...Fairbanks and surrounding uplands.

* WINDS...West winds will gust to 25 mph in Fairbanks, and up to
  35 mph over Summits north and east of Fairbanks. 

* TIMING...Strong winds will develop this afternoon and continue
  through this evening.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Recent rainfall will cause the ground to soften and
trees may be blown down onto power lines causing power outages. 
Secure loose objects which may be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

AKZ224-170800-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0027.190816T1400Z-190817T0800Z/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, 
Chicken, and Boundary
442 AM AKDT Fri Aug 16 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...Alaska Highway from Dot Lake to Northway and over
  higher terrain of the Taylor Highway. 

* WINDS...Northwest winds gusting to 40 mph.

* TIMING...Strong winds will develop this afternoon and continue 
  through this evening. 
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Recent rainfall will cause the ground to soften and
trees may be blown down. Secure loose objects which may be blown
about by the wind.

&&

$$

925 
WWAK73 PAFG 170802
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1202 AM AKDT Sat Aug 17 2019

AKZ218-171400-
/O.EXP.PAFG.WI.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-190817T0800Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WI.Y.0029.190817T0802Z-190817T1400Z/
Southeastern Brooks Range-
Including Arctic Village, Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp, 
and Iniakuk Lake
1202 AM AKDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect until 6 AM AKDT early this morning. 

* LOCATION...near Passes.

* WINDS...North gusting to 40 mph.

* TIMING...Strong winds will continue through early Sat morning. 
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Recent rainfall will cause the ground to soften and
trees may be blown down. Secure loose objects which may be blown
about by the wind.


&&

$$

AKZ224-171400-
/O.EXP.PAFG.WI.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-190817T0800Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WI.Y.0029.190817T0802Z-190817T1400Z/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, 
Chicken, and Boundary
1202 AM AKDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect until 6 AM AKDT early this morning. 

* LOCATION...Alaska Highway from Dot Lake to Northway and over 
  higher terrain of the Taylor Highway. 

* WINDS...Northwest winds gusting to 40 mph.

* TIMING...Strong winds will continue through early Sat morning. 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Recent rainfall will cause the ground to soften and
trees may be blown down. Secure loose objects which may be blown
about by the wind.

&&

$$

AKZ219-220-222-170915-
/O.EXP.PAFG.WI.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-190817T0800Z/
Upper Koyukuk Valley-Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain, 
Gobblers Knob, Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle, 
Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek, 
Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Fairbanks, 
Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, 
Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
1202 AM AKDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds are now decreasing. 

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
607 AM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain now occuring across the southern and western Interior and
West Coast today will become heavier late tonight across the
southern Interior and Western Brooks Range, and remain heavy over
the Southeast Interior Fri before tapering off Fri night. Through
Fri pm, expect 1-2 inches or more rain over the southern Interior
with the heaviest amounts from Denali Park to Salcha. Most of
that rain will be on Fri, expect in Denali to Salcha area where
rain will be heavy at times today and tonight as well.
This will likely cause flooding of some streams in Denali today
through Sat, and for streams in zones 221 222 223 on Fri and Sat.
The Chena river upstream of the Moose Creek Dam can expect
significant flooding from Fri through the weekend, as can the
Little Chena River, the Salcha River, and possibly the Goodpaster
rivers.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a strong ridge over the North
Pacific and southern Alaska, with a trough over Western Canada
and another deep trough from NE Russia to the NW Pacific. This
second trough is causing moist SW flow into the West Coast and
Interior of Alaska. This has pushed high moisture air into Nome
where Precipitable water values are 1.15 and McGrath where values
are 1.33, and 0.96 in Fairbanks.

The long wave ridge will build over north over the Eastern Bering
Sea and Western Alaska and NE Russia tonight through the weekend.
This will shut of the supply of additional moisture tonight, but
the high moisture air will remain over the Interior through Fri.

A vertically stacked low over NE Russia will move into the Western
Chukchi Sea by 4pm Thu, to Cape Lisburne by 4am Fri, to near Ft
Yukon by 4pm Fri, and to near Whitehorse by 4am Sat. Expect heavy
rain just south of the track of this low. See surface section
below for weather with this feature.

Several short waves trailing this low will south over NE Alaska on
Fri and Sat, bringing a chance of snow to the NE part of Alaska.

Surface...
A 1006 mb low over the MacKenzie River Delta will move south today
and tonight. This is causing NW winds 25 kt near Barter Island
today that will tapper off tonight.

A warm front stretching east from a low south of Shemya to Norton
Sound then to Fairbanks and Northway will remain quasi-stationary
through Fri, then weaken. High moisture air is pushing NE across
the Bering Sea and into Alaska and causing light to moderate rain
along this front. Upslope areas such Denali Park and the Chena and
Salcha basins will heavier rain amounts along this front through
tonight.

A 1015 mb low NE Russia will move into the Western Chukchi Sea as
a 1017 mb low by 4pm Fri, then to near Cape Lisburne as a 1018 MB
low by 4am Fri, and then move east along the Brooks Range to near
Ft Yukon as a 1014 mb low by 4pm Fri, then to near Whitehorse by
4am Sat. A cold front trailing west of this low will move to Cape
Lisburne to Ambler to Gambell by 4am Fri, then to Ft Yukon to
Denali to Kaltag by 4pm Fri, and to Northway to Tanana by 4am Sat,
then weakening sat. As this low and cold front moves east across
Alaska, it will cause heavy rain as it interacts with the high
moisture air along the stationary front over the southern
Interior late tonight through Fri pm. Is will also cause heavy
rain in NW Alaska tonight and Fri along the low track as well.
Rain will taper off west of the cold front Fri over the Western
Interior, and Fri night over the Eastern Interior. Expect NW winds
15 gusting to 30 mph with the cold front over the Eastern
Interior on Fri. With saturated soils, some trees will blow over
with this strength of wind.

High pressure building over the North Slope Fri night will build
over the Interior on Sat. Expect clearing skies and much cooler
temperatures on Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 00Z and show similar solutions
through Sat. Precipitation fields are similar in location of heavy
precip, though the GFS is a bit higher that the ECMF and NAM.
Give that Bethel RAOB has 1.4 inch Precipitable water and Nome
has 1 inch, which are both way above seasonal normals and
represent the very moist airmass moving northeast over INterior
Alaska, we will opt to go with the higher amounts shown by the
GFS.

At the surface at 06Z, all models verify well except that the low
near Demarcation Point was a bout 3 mb deeper than models show. To
account for this we will boost winds over NE Alaska today by about
3 kt.

Bottom line is that we will go with the GFS model for most fields,
especially the precip location and amounts, but we will bump up
winds today in NW AK by 3 kts.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wetting rain through Fri all but the area NE of Ft Yukon and South
of Anvik. Expect NW winds 20g30 mph Fri which could push over
trees.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Through Fri pm, expect 1-2 inches additonal rain over the
southern Interior with the heaviest amounts from Denali Park to
Salcha. This rain is falling onto already high rivers in the
Denali and Fairbanks Areas. Most of the heavy rain will be on Fri,
except in the Denali to Salcha area where rain will be heavy at
times today and tonight as well. This will likely cause flooding
of some streams in the Alaska Range from the Wood River West to
Denali today through Sat, and for streams in zones 221 222 223 on
Fri and Sat. The Chena river upstream of the Moose Creek Dam can
expect significant flooding from Fri through the weekend, as can
the Little Chena River, the Salcha River, and the Goodpaster
River. These rivers will crest Sat and Sun.

Rivers on the North Slope from the Kuparuk River will remain high
through the weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch for AKZ225-AKZ226.
Flood Warning for AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224
Flood Advisory for AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.
&&

JB AUG 19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1254 PM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2019

AKZ203-205-206-161400-
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-Northwestern Brooks Range-
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, Kuparuk,
Singiluk, Umiat, Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake,
Sagwon, and Franklin Bluffs
1254 PM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Rivers across the North Slope draining the Brooks Range are
expected to continue rising through Friday and remain high into
the weekend. Rain is now tapering off over the eastern mountains,
but will flow into rivers and cause them to rise through Friday.
Another round of heavy rain is expected for the western Brooks
Range tonight. The Sag River and Colville River, in particular,
have risen quickly this morning and are expected to crest this
afternoon. People along rivers draining the Brooks Range should
be prepared for rising river levels this week.