Wind Advisory 22, NWS Fairbanks, AK

917 
WWAK73 PAFG 262302
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 PM AKDT Sun May 26 2019

AKZ223-271730-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-190528T0200Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
302 PM AKDT Sun May 26 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT MONDAY...

* LOCATION...Along the Richardson Highway south of Delta 
  Junction.

* WINDS...South 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase today, and become strong this
  evening. Strong winds will continue through Monday afternoon, 
  then decrease Monday evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

AKZ226-271730-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-190528T0200Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
302 PM AKDT Sun May 26 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT MONDAY...

* LOCATION...Along Richardson Highway from Donnelly Dome north.

* WINDS...South 40 mph with gusts to 55 mph.

* TIMING...Strong winds will continue through Monday afternoon,
  then decrease Monday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

136 
WWAK73 PAFG 271147
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
347 AM AKDT Mon May 27 2019

AKZ223-280200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-190528T0200Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
347 AM AKDT Mon May 27 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...Along the Richardson Highway south of Delta 
  Junction. 

* WINDS...South 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will decrease this afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

AKZ226-280200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-190528T0200Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
347 AM AKDT Mon May 27 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...Along Richardson Highway from Donnelly Dome north.

* WINDS...South 40 mph with gusts to 55 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will decrease this afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

372 
WWAK73 PAFG 272144
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
144 PM AKDT Mon May 27 2019

AKZ223-280200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-190528T0200Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
144 PM AKDT Mon May 27 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...Along the Richardson Highway south of Delta 
  Junction. 

* WINDS...South 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will decrease this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

AKZ226-280200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-190528T0200Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
144 PM AKDT Mon May 27 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...Along Richardson Highway from Donnelly Dome north.

* WINDS...South 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will decrease this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
427 PM AKDT Sat May 25 2019

HIGHLIGHTS...
Warm and dry conditions over the Eastern Interior continuing into
Mon.
The West Coast and Western Interior will see rain developing
tonight and Sun, with heavy rain possible Sun night and Mon.

Moderate downslope winds developing tonight will become stronger
Sun. This could cause strong winds along the Alaska Range Sun.

Expect high winds and heavy snow on the south side of Denali above
7000 ft Sun through Mon.

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
Looks like the long wave pattern of a trough over the Bering and N
Pac and a ridge over Wrn Canada and NE AK progresses slightly
through Mon as the ridge weakens. Several strong short wave will
make their way north over Northern Alaska over the next several
days causing the ridge to weaken, and causing southerly chinook
flow to increase tonight and Sun over the Alaska Range. This will
keep Nrn AK warmer than normal, with isolated to scattered
showers in the Eastern INterior, Periods of heavy showers along
the West Coast and Western INterior, and a chance of rain over the
North Slope.

Moderate downslope winds developing tonight will become stronger
Sun night and Mon. This could cause strong winds along the Alaska
Range Sun night and Mon.

Surface...
A 1003 mb low in the northern Beaufort Sea will move east
tonight. This is causing west winds at Barter Island which will
decrease tonight.

High pressure over the North Slope will move just north of the
Arctic Coast tonight, then move further north of the Coast Sun but
persist into Tue. This will cause stratus and fog form east of
Wainwright tonight and persist through Tue.

A thermal low pressure trough from Northway to Galena will move
to Northway to Point Hope 4pm Sun, and then move to Eagle to
Arctic Village by 4pm Mon. Hot and dry conditions will continue
along and northeast of this trough through Sun with high in the
70s and low 80s, and Min RH in the 20-30%.

A weather front in Bristol Bay will move north over Norton Sound
by 4am Sun, then to the southern Chukchi Sea by 4pm Sun, and then
weaken Sun night. Expect a broad areas of rain to spread north
over the West Coast and SW Interior tonight, and to NW AK on Sun.

A second weather front moving north into Bristol Bay on Sun will
move over Norton Sound by 4am Mon, to the YK Delta to Galena to
McGrath by 4am Mon, and by 4pm Mon to the YK Delta to a developing
998 mb low forming near Point Hope to Anaktuvuk Pass to Delta
Junction, then over the North Slope and Alcan Border Tue. This
will spread heavy rain north over the West Coast and Western
Interior Sun night and Mon, with one half inch of rain most areas,
and up to one inch over the Western Brooks Range. This could
cause more river issues in NW AK by the middle of next week.
Expect a chance of rain over the Eastern Interior with this
system late Mon into Tue, and with snow/rain and possibly
freezing rain over the North Slope. This front will bring
southwest winds 15 mph to the Eastern INterior Mon, which could
lead to red flag issues south and east of Fairbanks.

Southerly Chinook winds now developing across the Alaska Range will
increase tonight and remain strong through Sunday night. This is
bringing Red Flag Conditions to zones 223 and 226 near Delta Junction
now, and will last through Sun evening, and could possibly last into Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 12Z, models initialize 10-15M too weak on the ridge over
Interior AK as shown by the RAOB H500 heights being higher than
model initializations at Fairbanks, Nome, McGrath, Anchorage and
Yakutat. Models similar solutions through 4pm Sun, then GFS
maintains a slightly higher ridge heights over Eastern AK than
the NAM and ECMF. Given that the ridge was initialized too weak
to begin with, prefer the GFS solution that maintains the higher
heights. These differences are reflected in other fields as well,
with the GFS having much warmer H850 temps in the Eastern Interior
than other models, which is a result of the stronger ridge aloft
shown by the GFS, and of stronger chinook winds show by the GFS.
GFS also keeps the precip more west of the other models through
Mon due to its stronger downslope winds.

At the surface at 15Z all models verify well, and show similar
solutions through 4am Mon, then the GFS keep a surface low in NW
Alaska while than NAM develops a low further east. Again Favor the
GFS since the stronger ridge aloft over Ern AK would keep energy
to develop a surface low further west.

Bottom line is that we favor the GFS solution through Tue. GFS
MOS appear reasonable.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions across the Eastern Interior today, will
persist into Mon. Moderate downslope winds developing tonight
will become stronger on Sun. This will cause Red Flag conditions
to develop in zones 223 and 226 near Delta Junction this afternoon
and continue through Sun evening and possibly into Mon. Windy
conditions will occur in zone 225 as well near Healy, but slightly
cooler temperatures and slightly higher RH there should keep
conditions from hitting Red Flag in 226.

A second weather front will move north over the Western INterior Sun night,
and then move northeast over the Eastern Interior on Mon. This will
bring cooler and more moist air and a chance of showers to the the
areas north and west of Fairbanks on Mon, but also bring southwest winds
to 15 mph across most of the Eastern Interior. This will make the drier
and warmer area south and east of Fairbanks near Red Flag for Mon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High water on rivers draining the south side of the
Brooks Range will continue through next week. The flooding at
Allakaket is forecast to crest this Sunday, several inches
higher than now, then fall very slowly. At Hughes, the flooding is
expected to crest Monday, 1 ft higher than now, then fall slowly.
At Huslia waters will rise slowly for the next week, then fall
very slowly, making at least 10 more days of bank erosion likely
there.

On the north side of the Brooks Range, a return to high freezing
levels Sunday into next week will see rising rivers next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230.

FLOOD WARNING FOR SNOWMELT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KOYUKUK
RIVER at Allakaket.
Flood Advisory on the Koyukuk River downstream of Allakaket to
Hughes.

.&&

JB MAY 19