Wind Advisory 16, NWS Fairbanks, AK

347 
WWAK72 PAFG 071147
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
347 AM AKDT Sun Apr 7 2019

AKZ217-080200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-190408T0200Z/
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Ambler, Shungnak, and Kobuk
347 AM AKDT Sun Apr 7 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...North of Ambler.

* WINDS...Northeast gusting to 40 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will diminish late in the afternoon and through 
  the evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

380 
WWAK72 PAFG 072220
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
220 PM AKDT Sun Apr 7 2019

AKZ217-081400-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-190408T1400Z/
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Ambler, Shungnak, and Kobuk
220 PM AKDT Sun Apr 7 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT MONDAY...

* LOCATION...North of Ambler.

* WINDS...Northeast gusting to 40 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will begin to decrease Monday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

845 
WWAK72 PAFG 081212
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
412 AM AKDT Mon Apr 8 2019

AKZ217-090200-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-190409T0200Z/
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Ambler, Shungnak, and Kobuk
412 AM AKDT Mon Apr 8 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...North of Ambler.

* WINDS...Northeast gusting to 40 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will diminish late this afternoon, but remain
  gusty into Tuesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that strong winds are occurring or
expected. Travel may be difficult. Secure loose objects which may
be blown about by the wind.

&&

$$

344 
WWAK72 PAFG 081752
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
952 AM AKDT Mon Apr 8 2019

AKZ217-081900-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-190409T0200Z/
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Ambler, Shungnak, and Kobuk
952 AM AKDT Mon Apr 8 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
329 AM AKDT Sat Apr 6 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...Low pressure system in the Northeast Pacific is
sending clouds north into the Interior and that will continue
through the day, but mostly high clouds. There is a chance of rain
in the Alaska Range with the low continuing to spin moisture
north. Winds generally northeast to east at 5 to 20 mph. Stronger
winds around Point Hope as pressure gradient gets squeezed.
Temperatures will continue to slowly warm. A front will spread
some showers into the area from the east on Sunday, and another
front developing over the Western Interior will spread some
showers north to the Brooks Range and west over the coast. A front
in the Arctic will move over the Arctic Coast on Monday spreading
snow south to the Brooks Range as it moves east through Tuesday
morning.

Models...Solutions continue the trend of good agreement in the
very short term out to around 36 hours, then diverge on what
exactly they want to do with the low backing to the west and the
interaction with the low dropping down over the Eastern Arctic
Coast by Sunday morning. Also timing differences with a shortwave
that will be moving over the Eastern Interior as the ridging over
the Yukon Territory and Interior Alaska is pushed north. The
06/00Z solution initialized well against the local surface
analysis at 06/06Z. Precipitation appears best handled by NAM and
SREF so will use a blend of those two solutions for the short
term. Solutions all seem to have a good handle on the winds, so
will just use a equal blend. Solution temperatures are all over
the map as usual, will lean on continuity and only tweak them to
match current conditions.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 510 dam low continues to back to the west
and is over Anvik this morning, and will be over the Bering Strait
by Sunday afternoon. Ridging has pushed west over the Southeast
mainland and Gulf of Alaska Coast and the axis will rotate north
to lie from Dawson to Fairbanks to Nunivak Island by Sunday
morning. A 515 dam low 500 nm north of Deadhorse will dive south
to 100 nm north of Point Barrow by Sunday morning as the longwave
trough sets up to lie from high in the Canadian Archipelago over
the Northwest Arctic Coast to the Central Bering Sea and slowing
the movement of the ridge. A shortwave spinning around a 512 dam
low in the Northeast Pacific will lie from the low over McCarthy
then northeast over the Yukon Territory. The shortwave weakens as
it continue to spin to the northwest and will lie from Denali to
Eagle and northeast as it continues to weaken and the associated
low moves to the Northern Gulf of Alaska and weakens eventually
merging with the low over the Bering Sea. The ridge continues to
rotate north and cuts off the trough as it merges with a 539 dam
high over Siberia. The low in the Arctic will starts moving to the
northeast Sunday afternoon and will be over the Northern Beaufort
Sea by Tuesday morning. A shortwave will spin around the low in
the Bering Sea over the Lower Yukon Delta Tuesday morning and
continue north. At 850 hpa...The -10C isotherm lies roughly from
the Eagle to Fairbanks to Anvik and will move north to lie over
the south slopes of the Brooks Range and the Bering Strait by
Sunday morning. Warmer air will move into the Interior with
temperatures around 0C south and east of the Yukon River. By
Monday morning the -10C isotherm will lie from Demarcation Point
to Kotzebue to Savoonga while the warmer air over the Interior
moderates slightly.

Surface...A broad area of low pressure remains over the state with
high pressure over the Northwest Arctic and Siberia. A 975 mb low
in the Northeast Pacific has moved to 500 nm south of Prince
William Sound and will continue to move north to 300 nm south of
Prince William Sound as it weakens to 984 mb, and a 986 mb low
develops in Bristol Bay by Sunday afternoon. A inverted trough
will persist over the West Coast and Chukchi Sea Coast enhancing
the tight gradient in the area. A weather front will lie from
Bristol Bay to Denali to Dawson YT and east Sunday afternoon and
stalls over the area through Monday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Some stratus over the area is
bringing some lower clouds and flurries to areas, generally for
short periods. Some patchy fog is also reducing visibility at
times. Winds generally northeast to east at 5 to 25 mph with the
strongest winds on the Northwest Arctic Coast with gusts around 45
mph southwest of Point Lay. Highs in the single digits above,
with lows in the single digits below.

West Coast and Western Interior...Partly cloudy early then
increasing clouds. A front developing over the Western Alaska
Range will spread rain north into the Middle Yukon Valley by this
evening, then north to the Brooks Range tonight. Winds generally
northeast to east at 5 to 20 mph locally gusting to around 30 mph,
except northeast winds 15 to30 mph with gusts around 45 mph around
Point Hope today with the stronger winds spreading to the Bering
Strait this evening and St Lawrence Island Sunday morning.
Temperatures warming a couple degrees.

Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly cloudy, but generally high
clouds. A chance of rain/snow in the Alaska Range. Winds
northeast to east at 5 to 15 mph. Highs in the mid 30s to mid
40s, and lows in the teens to mid 20s, except 10 to 20 degrees
colder north of Fairbanks. Increasing clouds Sunday with a chance
of rain as a front moves into the state from the southeast
moving northwest.

&&

Fire Weather...Minimum Relative Humidity values in the 20 to 40
percent range through the weekend with good overnight recovery.
Temperatures slowly warming. Chance of light rain in the Central
and Eastern Interior, with rain likely in the Western Interior.

&&

Hydrology...Breakup continues and, with warmer temperatures and
rain, it will start to accelerate the melt. Extreme caution
should be used crossing any of the Interior rivers as the ice
continues to rot and be eroded from below. Also, caution should be
used on lakes as the ice melts at different rates.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A weather front will move up
the West Coast Monday night and Tuesday, followed by another front
Wednesday through Thursday morning, and a third front Thursday
morning through Friday morning. Precipitation will mainly on the
Coast and in the Western Interior, but some may push into the
Central Interior west of Fairbanks. The Arctic front will be
pushed north to lie over the Brooks Range Tuesday morning, then is
pushed north of the Arctic Coast by Thursday morning. Temperatures
will cool a couple degrees Tuesday, then a warm push will bring a
temperatures up a few degrees.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.

&&

SDB APR 19