Storm Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
252 PM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm moving through the Bering Sea will push a strong
front across the West Coast Monday evening into Tuesday. Along
with the front a surge of water will move to the coast producing
coastal flooding in the Norton Sound Region. The front will also
bring heavy snow and very strong winds to portions of the west
coast, with a mix of precipitation possible Tuesday night and
Wednesday as warmer air moves in behind the front over the Yukon
Delta. Heavy snow will move over the Western Interior Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday. There is also a high wind potential in
the Alaska Range from Wednesday into Thursday.

Aloft...At 500 hpa..Models in good agreement through 84 hours.
We did a blend of the GFS and NAM for the afternoon forecast
package. Broad troughing over the state will give way to strong
southwest flow over the west coast Tuesday into Thursday. A
strong upper level 485 dam low will move over Eastern Russia on
Tuesday then track towards Wrangel Island on Wednesday.

Surface...A strong low will move to the Western Gulf of Anadyr by
Monday evening and deepen to 955 mb, then north along the
Dateline to Wrangel Island Wednesday morning at 971 mb. The low
in the Bering Sea will send a weather front to the southwest
mainland coast Monday morning. Strong southwest flow will develop
across the Central and Eastern Bering Sea Monday evening and
persist through Wednesday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...As a strong low moves towards
Wrangel Island on Tuesday, the western north slope could see near
Blizzard conditions from Wainwright west and also in the Brooks
Range passes. Winter storm warnings have been issued for zones
201 and 205 and 206 for Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong winds
expected at Cape Lisburne with gusts up to 80 mph. There is
also a coastal flood warning for zone 202 for surge 2.5 to 3.5
feet above the normal high tide line. Flooding of low-lying
coastal areas and coastal erosion are expected. Erosion of the
sand berms near Utqiagvik is expected. Roads along the coast may
become flooded.

West Coast and Western Interior...Coastal Flood Warnings are in
effect for the coast-lines and Winter Storm Warnings for the
remainder of the West Coast. A high surf advisory has also
been issued for Saint Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait.
Strong weather front will move to the coast this afternoon
spreading heavy snow and very strong winds to the Lower Yukon
Delta and St Lawrence Island. Heavy snow will push inland along
with the strong winds that will work up the West Coast. Strongest
winds expected on the Capes and along the Chukchi Sea Coast. Winds
to 75 mph expected around Point Hope and Cape Romanzof, and along
the Bering Strait. Winds will be gusting to 45 mph or high at
most locations Tuesday into Wednesday.

For the coastal areas around Norton Sound, expecting 6 to 8 feet
above the normal high tide line. Flooding of low-lying coastal
areas and coastal erosion are expected. Flooding may cause
property damage or loss in the intertidal zone. In open water,
rough seas will make travel dangerous. In Golovin, the old runway
will be inundated along with low lying areas near it. For the Nome
area, rising waters will impact the Belmont Point area, and
travel along the Beach roads will be impacted. A coastal Flood
warning has also been issued for zone 207, for 3 to 5 feet above
the normal high tide line around Kivalina. Kotzebue will need to
be watched for the potential for water to be pushed into the
Lagoon area on Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Temperatures will slowly fall and
lows around zero to 10 below are expected Tuesday morning.
Southwest flow will moderate Temperatures Tuesday afternoon
through Thursday. Highs in the mid to upper 20s expected Wednesday
and Thursday. Heavy snow will begin to spread across the Western
Interior Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Winter storm warnings
are in effect for zones 218, 219 and 221 for the potential of 6 to
12 inches of snow. At this point it looks like the heaviest snow
will stay north and west of Fairbanks. Snow may make it into
Fairbanks late Wednesday into Thursday. A strong shortwave
will be moving across the range by mid week. Winds will ramp up
in the Alaska Range starting Wednesday morning and continue
through Thursday evening. High wind watches are in effect for
zones 225 and 226 for south winds gusting to 70 mph in the passes.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Coastal Flooding will be
receding and seas will be subsiding. None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch for AKZ225-AKZ226.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ213.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ227.

Wind Advisory for AKZ227.

Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ202-AKZ207-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ201-AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ208-
AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-
AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ221.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Storm Warning for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

NOV 19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
926 AM AKST MON NOV 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 AM     SNOW             2 W TWO RIVERS          64.88N 147.17W
11/25/2019  M3.0 INCH        FAIRBANKS NORTH STAAK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED 24-HR SNOWFALL AT 3 INCHES. TEMP
            16F.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1046 AM AKST MON NOV 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     SNOW             4 NNW SALCHA            64.52N 146.99W
11/25/2019  M5.0 INCH        FAIRBANKS NORTH STAAK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER 007-223 MEASURED 5 INCHES NEW SNOW
            OVER NIGHT.

&&

HFL