Small Craft Advisory 21, NWS Fairbanks, AK

690 
FZAK52 PAFG 212242
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
242 PM AKDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-221545-
242 PM AKDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 984 mb low in Cook Inlet will move north and then west as it
weakens to 996 mb over Norton Sound on Monday morning.

$$

PKZ200-221545-
Norton Sound-
242 PM AKDT Sun Apr 21 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog and blowing snow.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.THU...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI...SE winds 5 kt. Seas calm.  

$$

PKZ210-221545-
Dall Point to Wales-
242 PM AKDT Sun Apr 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Blowing
snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing fog
and blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
Freezing fog and blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing fog
and blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ215-221545-
Kotzebue Sound-
242 PM AKDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-221545-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
242 PM AKDT Sun Apr 21 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. VSBY
1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. VSBY 1 NM or
less. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 5 kt. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt.  

$$

CCC Apr 19

944 
FZAK52 PAFG 221220
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
420 AM AKDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-230230-
420 AM AKDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A trough of low pressure will move west into the northern Bering
Strait this evening and will move south into Bristol Bay Tuesday.
High pressure will persist over the Arctic Ocean for much of the 
week. 

$$

PKZ200-230230-
Norton Sound-
420 AM AKDT Mon Apr 22 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ210-230230-
Dall Point to Wales-
420 AM AKDT Mon Apr 22 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW winds 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Blowing
snow and freezing fog. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing
fog and blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Freezing fog
and blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot. 
.THU...SW winds 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot. 
.FRI...SE winds 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-230230-
Kotzebue Sound-
420 AM AKDT Mon Apr 22 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 5 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-230230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
420 AM AKDT Mon Apr 22 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 40 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. VSBY 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. VSBY
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 5 kt. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt.  

$$

Apr 19

930 
FZAK52 PAFG 222308
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
308 PM AKDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-231430-
308 PM AKDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A trough of low pressure over the western Norton Sound will expand
south to near Nunivak Island tonight and into Bristol Bay Tuesday
night. High pressure will persist over the Arctic Ocean for much 
of the week.

$$

PKZ200-231430-
Norton Sound-
308 PM AKDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog.
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas calm. Freezing fog. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-231430-
Dall Point to Wales-
308 PM AKDT Mon Apr 22 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft subsiding.
Freezing fog and blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Blowing snow
and freezing fog. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
Freezing fog and blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Freezing fog.
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot. 
.FRI...SE winds 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-231430-
Kotzebue Sound-
308 PM AKDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 5 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-231430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
308 PM AKDT Mon Apr 22 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. VSBY
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

CCC Apr 19

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
148 PM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...
An active weather pattern develops over northern Alaska Sunday and
early next week with snow and strong winds developing in the
Western Interior and the West Coast on Sunday and snow developing
over the southern interior Monday and Tuesday.

Aloft at 500 mb, a deep longwave over the Bering Strait south to
the Central Aleutians will rotate to the east to be along a Bering
Strait to Bristol Bay by Monday. A ridge over the southeast
Interior will push north along the Canadian Border Sunday as a
strong shortwave pushes north along the southern Coast. The strong
shortwave will continue to move northwest over Bristol Bay and the
Lower YK Delta Monday afternoon. A second stronger shortwave
pushes onto the southern coast near Yakutat Monday evening and
continues to push north into the southern Interior Tuesday. As the
shortwave moves into the interior strong dynamics aloft will
produce an environment favorable for a mid level as well as a surface
low to develop over the southeast interior by Tuesday morning.

On the surface, a weak low pressure system over Fairbanks will
continue to weaken as it moves to the northwest tonight. Expect
scattered snow showers north and west of Fairbanks tonight and
partly to mostly cloudy skies south and east of Fairbanks. Minimum
relative humidity levels will continue to drop into the 25 to 35
percent range along the upper Tanana Valley and along the northern
foothills of the Eastern Alaska Range. Local winds through the
Eastern Alaska Range passes have increased to the 15 to 25 mph
range with gusts to around 35 mph, however humidity levels in
these areas remain above 30 percent. Very similar conditions are
expected Sunday in the Upper Tanana Valley and through the passes
in the Eastern Alaska Range. Will continue to monitor.

A 982 mb low pushes on shore over the Kenai Peninsula Sunday
morning and continue to push north and west over McGrath as a 984
mb low Sunday evening. Snow develops over the western interior to
the south of Galena Sunday afternoon as the low pushes northwest.
Winds increase over a wide area of the central and western
interior as the low pushes north and west into Western Alaska and
a 1032 mb high pressure system remains in place to the north of
Wrangel Island. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for
zones 215 and 216 for snow and blowing snow beginning early
Sunday evening and for zones 212 and 214 for snow and blowing snow
for late Sunday evening. Expect 4 to 7 inches of snow and wind
gusts to 40 mph in these areas. Wind gusts to 40 mph are expected
to develop the Sunday evening over the higher terrain and highway
summits in zones 219, the higher terrain and highway summits of
zone 220 as well as the higher terrain and highway summits of zone
221. Wind Advisories for wind gusts to 40 mph have been issued
for these areas.

A 980 mb low develops over the Southeast Interior Monday night as
a strong second shortwave moves over the Southern Interior. Snow
and snow rain mix will expand north and west over much of the
Interior to the east of Galena and to the South of Fort Yukon. At
this time the heaviest snow appears to targeting the Fortymile
Country, the hills north of Fairbanks and Fairbanks as well as a
broad swath from Fairbanks west to near Galena. The precipitation
may mix with rain Monday night and Tuesday morning but should
switch to all snow through the day Tuesday. The low will slowly
drift to the north along the Canadian Border through Wednesday
morning and has the potential to produce heavy wet snow over a
large portion of the Central and Eastern Interior Monday night
into Wednesday. Timing on the switchover from rain to snow as well
as snow levels and the exact storm track will greatly affect
snowfall totals in the interior. Continue to monitor.

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12 surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Model
spread remains limited and run to run differences remains minimal.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier conditions and warmer temperatures expected across the
Interior tomorrow. Minimum RH will range from 20-30 percent south
and east of Fairbanks and 30 to 50 percent north and west of
Fairbanks Sunday. Humidity levels will increase over all of the
Interior as significant precipitation moves into the Interior.

A surface low will move north into the Western Interior Sunday
night. This will cause strong southerly gap winds to develop in
the Alaska Range with gusty southerly winds expected near Delta
Junction The winds will be combined with low RH values near Delta
Junction for a period of time Sunday afternoon. We will need to
monitor this area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Cooler than normal temperatures over the Eastern Interior will
continue through the weekend and into next week slowing the
breakup process; however, extreme caution should be used crossing
any of the Interior rivers as the ice continues to rot and be
eroded from below, and any runoff will be moving into the mainstem
rivers. Caution should also be used on lakes as the ice melts at
different rates.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

CCC APR 19